Alexander I of Serbia does not marry Draga.
- Thread starter VVD0D95
- Start date
Let's assume that in this timeline, Draga doesn't end up accepting Natalija Obrenović's offer to be a lady-in-waiting for her. As a result, she never ends up meeting the young Alexander. The question of who he would marry is something I can't answer, as I'm not very versed in royalty. Perhaps he might marry one of Nikola I Petrović-Njegoš's daughters, such as Anastasija (butterflying her marriage with Nicholas Nikolaevich Romanov) or Ksenija (as many newspapers at the time speculated with whom she would marry, including Alexander). Alexandra zu Schaumburg-Lippe is another possible choice, seeing as his father Milan I was vacationing in Karlovy Vary and making arrangements to secure her hand for him when OTL he was planning to announce his marriage to Draga.
Immediately, we're feeling the effects - as Alexander did not marry a widow of unequal birth and from an obscure family that was not only 12 years older than him but, at 36 years of age, unlikely to bare an heir (especially important as he was an only child), we don't have the massive opposition that OTL had. Politicians and the army wouldn't be complaining, nor would the Prime Minister and Alexander's parents. The unpopularity of the union weakened the King's position in the eyes of the army and of the country at large. As a result, the conspiracy that was building in the background, to replace the Obrenović dynasty with their rivals, the Karađordević dynasty, wouldn't gain as much support in secret within both the army and between politicians. Depending on whether or not Tsar Nicholas II of Russia would congratulate the young king on his engagement and of his acceptance to act as the principal witness at the wedding, we might see support rise even less.
The conspiracy that led to the May Coup managed to utilize the opposition to the marriage with Draga by using the general consensus that Alexander would declare Draga's brother as heir-presumptive, displeasing those loyal to the family, despite the fact that the government agreed to having Mirko Petrović-Njegoš, married to the granddaughter of an aunt of Milan I, would be proclaimed heir-presumptive in the event that the marriage was childless. And there is so much more to say about the events that unfolded after the marriage that I can't write about it all here.
The first consequence we might see is that the Obrenović dynasty may continue ruling over Serbia, though an attempt to coup him isn't out of the picture completely for reasons I will get to. The international reaction to the assassination would be wiped completely, thus ensuring that relations to Russia, Austria-Hungary, Britain, the US and so forth wouldn't be strained. With the dynasty in mind, Serbia would continue leaning towards Austria-Hungary as an ally, unlike the Karađordević dynasty which had close ties with Russia and France. With general public support of Russia and dislike of Austria (mostly as a result of holding South Slavic lands, especially once Bosnia was annexed), many saw the royal support of their northern neighbors as detrimental to the unification of Serbdom (even the royal court of Montenegro believed this, thinking that it would be the Petrović-Njegoš dynasty that would unite the Serbs; which is why Montenegro was one of the only two countries to attend the coronation of Peter Karađorđević, seeing the Karađorđević family as allies in the end goal of an united Serbdom).
With the conspiracy group led by Apis more than likely never gaining the power they did OTL, whether it was because they never received enough support to attempt a coup or because they failed to coup him, we wouldn't see the establishment of the Black Hand, or Unification or Death. Narodna Odbrana would more than likely still exist, and in turn Young Bosnia, but without the support of the Black Hand-dominated Serbian government (possibly only having support from the public and select politicans), we may not see an assassination attempt on Franz Ferdinand on the same scale that happened OTL. Whether or not there is an assassination attempt largely depends on how much support Young Bosnia could get now with the Black Hand out of the picture, and if there is one, it would likely entail only one or two people and not a group like real life, and it would more than likely fail. However, it would create a political scuffle within Serbia if it did happen and fail, forcing those for and against Austria to come to a head. From here, I'm not even sure where we would be.
Immediately, we're feeling the effects - as Alexander did not marry a widow of unequal birth and from an obscure family that was not only 12 years older than him but, at 36 years of age, unlikely to bare an heir (especially important as he was an only child), we don't have the massive opposition that OTL had. Politicians and the army wouldn't be complaining, nor would the Prime Minister and Alexander's parents. The unpopularity of the union weakened the King's position in the eyes of the army and of the country at large. As a result, the conspiracy that was building in the background, to replace the Obrenović dynasty with their rivals, the Karađordević dynasty, wouldn't gain as much support in secret within both the army and between politicians. Depending on whether or not Tsar Nicholas II of Russia would congratulate the young king on his engagement and of his acceptance to act as the principal witness at the wedding, we might see support rise even less.
The conspiracy that led to the May Coup managed to utilize the opposition to the marriage with Draga by using the general consensus that Alexander would declare Draga's brother as heir-presumptive, displeasing those loyal to the family, despite the fact that the government agreed to having Mirko Petrović-Njegoš, married to the granddaughter of an aunt of Milan I, would be proclaimed heir-presumptive in the event that the marriage was childless. And there is so much more to say about the events that unfolded after the marriage that I can't write about it all here.
The first consequence we might see is that the Obrenović dynasty may continue ruling over Serbia, though an attempt to coup him isn't out of the picture completely for reasons I will get to. The international reaction to the assassination would be wiped completely, thus ensuring that relations to Russia, Austria-Hungary, Britain, the US and so forth wouldn't be strained. With the dynasty in mind, Serbia would continue leaning towards Austria-Hungary as an ally, unlike the Karađordević dynasty which had close ties with Russia and France. With general public support of Russia and dislike of Austria (mostly as a result of holding South Slavic lands, especially once Bosnia was annexed), many saw the royal support of their northern neighbors as detrimental to the unification of Serbdom (even the royal court of Montenegro believed this, thinking that it would be the Petrović-Njegoš dynasty that would unite the Serbs; which is why Montenegro was one of the only two countries to attend the coronation of Peter Karađorđević, seeing the Karađorđević family as allies in the end goal of an united Serbdom).
With the conspiracy group led by Apis more than likely never gaining the power they did OTL, whether it was because they never received enough support to attempt a coup or because they failed to coup him, we wouldn't see the establishment of the Black Hand, or Unification or Death. Narodna Odbrana would more than likely still exist, and in turn Young Bosnia, but without the support of the Black Hand-dominated Serbian government (possibly only having support from the public and select politicans), we may not see an assassination attempt on Franz Ferdinand on the same scale that happened OTL. Whether or not there is an assassination attempt largely depends on how much support Young Bosnia could get now with the Black Hand out of the picture, and if there is one, it would likely entail only one or two people and not a group like real life, and it would more than likely fail. However, it would create a political scuffle within Serbia if it did happen and fail, forcing those for and against Austria to come to a head. From here, I'm not even sure where we would be.
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IIRC Alexandra of Schaumburg-Lippe was the definite candidate and preparations were underway for their marriage in 1900. Besides her, the Austrian Archduchess Elisabeth Amalie was another candidate, and a few other German princesses were considered. But in the end it was supposed to be Alexandra.
Some say the wedding was to be followed by Serbia joining the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria and Italy (and secretly Romania)...I'm not sure, I don't remember reading anything definite about it. If it's true, I assume Serbia would be joining in secret like Romania, since the public would have been outraged at such a step.
Damian0358 already wrote much about the whole thing. I'd like to add that the marriage to Draga was not what killed King Alexander (although it didn't help matters). Shortly after Draga became Queen, Alexander did more to boost his popularity than he or his father had done in the preceding 20 years. In marrying Alexandra of Schaumburg-Lippe, he avoids alienating his core supporters (conservative political factions and elements of the officer corps), but he also won't be winning any friends among 90% of the Serbian public. Unlike in OTL, there will be
-no partial democratization in 1901 (let alone the more serious democratization of 1903);
-a continuation of the pro-Austrian foreign policy and icy relations with Russia and Montenegro - which was a highly unpopular and so far thankless policy;
-no escape from Austria's economic chokehold any time soon;
...so yeah. Sooner or later, there will be a coup attempt, or two. Or five. The only way to preserve the Obrenovic dynasty is if being friendly with Berlin and Vienna starts actually paying off for Serbia (which I find unlikely, but maybe not impossible).
Some say the wedding was to be followed by Serbia joining the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria and Italy (and secretly Romania)...I'm not sure, I don't remember reading anything definite about it. If it's true, I assume Serbia would be joining in secret like Romania, since the public would have been outraged at such a step.
Damian0358 already wrote much about the whole thing. I'd like to add that the marriage to Draga was not what killed King Alexander (although it didn't help matters). Shortly after Draga became Queen, Alexander did more to boost his popularity than he or his father had done in the preceding 20 years. In marrying Alexandra of Schaumburg-Lippe, he avoids alienating his core supporters (conservative political factions and elements of the officer corps), but he also won't be winning any friends among 90% of the Serbian public. Unlike in OTL, there will be
-no partial democratization in 1901 (let alone the more serious democratization of 1903);
-a continuation of the pro-Austrian foreign policy and icy relations with Russia and Montenegro - which was a highly unpopular and so far thankless policy;
-no escape from Austria's economic chokehold any time soon;
...so yeah. Sooner or later, there will be a coup attempt, or two. Or five. The only way to preserve the Obrenovic dynasty is if being friendly with Berlin and Vienna starts actually paying off for Serbia (which I find unlikely, but maybe not impossible).
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