Alawites never come to power in Syria

The idea of the Alawites as the ruling group in Syria would have been a surprise to most outside observers until the rise of Hafez al-Assad and his associates in the 1960's and their purge of the "old guard" Ba'athists, culminating in the 1970 coup. "Assad has now remained in power for twenty-two years. Considering that Damascus saw twenty-one changes of government in the twenty-four years preceding his coup, Assad's permanence is impressive. It is still more impressive when one realizes that he belongs to Syria's most-hated ethnic group--the group that has historically been suspected by other Syrians of sympathizing with the French, the Christians, and even the Jews. Daniel Pipes, a Middle East historian, writes in Greater Syria, 'An Alawi ruling Syria is like an untouchable becoming maharajah in India or a Jew becoming tsar in Russia--an unprecedented development shocking to the majority population which had monopolized power for so many centuries.'" http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/02/syria-identity-crisis/303860/

Suppose this "shocking" development had never happened, and Syria was instead governed by, say, a predominantly Sunni Ba'athist leadership like that of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Could such a government have lasted? Would there stil be a civil war?
 
Suppose this "shocking" development had never happened, and Syria was instead governed by, say, a predominantly Sunni Ba'athist leadership like that of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Could such a government have lasted? Would there stil be a civil war?
Definitely lasted; after all the Alawites have lasted.

On the civil war. Depends how nice the Arab government is. Given that Arabs are about 55-60% of the population, if they were to fracture then a civil war is very likely.
 
A Sunni Syrian Ba'athist regime would definitely have better relations with the Sunni Iraqi Ba'athist regime. Depending on the respective leaderships in each country (i.e. no Saddam spoiling it to protect his personal power), you could eventually see some type of Ba'athist union of Syria and Iraq.

Such a unified Ba'athist Syrian-Iraqi state could have the potential to dominate Lebanon, Jordan and Kuwait, be an ally for Egypt and the Soviet Union, and would make Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia very nervous.
 
Definitely lasted; after all the Alawites have lasted.

On the civil war. Depends how nice the Arab government is. Given that Arabs are about 55-60% of the population, if they were to fracture then a civil war is very likely.

Arabs are only 60% of the population of Syria?

What are the other 40%?
 
I think he meant *Sunni* Arabs.

Even if that's what he meant, that number is super low...most estimates are more like 75%, probably higher now that so many Christians have gone. Of course, there hasn't been a census since 1960, so...

EDIT: and the rest of the population is probably around 10-15% Shiites (including Alawites), 10ish% Druze, and 2-5% Christians
 
Even if that's what he meant, that number is super low...most estimates are more like 75%, probably higher now that so many Christians have gone. Of course, there hasn't been a census since 1960, so...

EDIT: and the rest of the population is probably around 10-15% Shiites (including Alawites), 10ish% Druze, and 2-5% Christians

"The largest religious group in Syria are the Sunni Muslims which make up around 74% of the population,[1] of whom about 80% are native Syrian Arabs, with the remainder being Kurds, Turkomans, Circassians, and Palestinians"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Syria So possibly the percentage of Syrians who are Sunni *Arabs* (as opposed to Kurds, etc.) isn't much more than 60%--or at least wasn't before the civil war...
 
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