Alaric I survives

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
  • Start date

Deleted member 1487

What if Alaric I, the king of the Visigoths, survives in 410, successfully landing his army in Africa to control Italy's grain?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaric_I
This would mean the toppling of the Western Empire about 60 years earlier (in the sense that Odoacer toppled the Western Empire), establishing the Visigoths in Italy as the dominant power. Honorius is probably then toppled with the potential for a Visigothic Kingdom of Italy, much like the later Ostrogothic Italy of OTL.

Obviously the results of this are massive, as the Visigoths won't then be in Spain, nor will the Ostrogoths likely establish themselves in Italy. In fact they would stay in the Balkans, perhaps creating a permanent presence there. The Vandals may then become the dominant force in Spain, while the Lombards are then possibly forced north, around Italy into Southern France. Or they can try to challenge the Visigoths, but that may not turn out well for them.

A change this early then would probably butterfly Justinian I away, making Italy a Gothic stronghold, shielded from Byzantium by the Ostrogoths.
 
1) Without Ataulf getting power and marrying Galla placidia, thus attempting Roman-goth fustion, Visigots have very few chances to be accepted inspain and/or north africa.
2) if italy is not in goth hands, western Roman empire stands, even if Carthage is occupied
 

Deleted member 1487

1) Without Ataulf getting power and marrying Galla placidia, thus attempting Roman-goth fustion, Visigots have very few chances to be accepted inspain and/or north africa.
2) if italy is not in goth hands, western Roman empire stands, even if Carthage is occupied

Upon further research into the goals of Alaric, it appears that he was trying to cut a deal with Honorius to grant him control over the armies of Rome as its C-in-C, yearly grain and tax revenues, and control over a 200 by 150 mile block of land between the Gulf of Venice and the Danube.
http://historymedren.about.com/od/aentries/a/11_alaric_3.htm

This is a hefty price, no wonder Honorius did not want to grant it, but with the Visigoths sitting on Carthage and Italy's grain, after having sacked Rome and left considerable very veteran troops in Italy, how can the Emperor not submit to Visigothic control?
 
Upon further research into the goals of Alaric, it appears that he was trying to cut a deal with Honorius to grant him control over the armies of Rome as its C-in-C, yearly grain and tax revenues, and control over a 200 by 150 mile block of land between the Gulf of Venice and the Danube.
http://historymedren.about.com/od/aentries/a/11_alaric_3.htm

This is a hefty price, no wonder Honorius did not want to grant it, but with the Visigoths sitting on Carthage and Italy's grain, after having sacked Rome and left considerable very veteran troops in Italy, how can the Emperor not submit to Visigothic control?

Because it would not be Visigotic control.
You should not think about it as a war between countries but rather like a general trying a sort of golpe.
Basically, Alaric was aiming at Stilico Magister Militum position.
Strange as it could appear, he sacked Rome as a Roman general.
Roman previous history reports several examples of generals rebelling against constituted authority: sometimes tyhey won, like Caesar, August, Constantine and sometime they lose like Gordian or Massentium.
 
Last edited:
If Alaric can stop African grain form reaching Italy, then he is in an extremely strong position. While I doubt he would dismantle the Empire, he would certainly be able to take a large portion of land for his Goths to settle in.

The Vandals may then become the dominant force in Spain, while the Lombards are then possibly forced north, around Italy into Southern France. Or they can try to challenge the Visigoths, but that may not turn out well for them.

IIRC, the Alans were actually the dominant group in Spain at this time. The Vandals didn't become dominant until the Alans were badly defeated by the Visigoths. In this TL, that won't happen so the Alans will remain powerful for longer. Which is interesting in itself...
 
Top