Al Grito de Guerra: the Second Mexican Revolution

Bartlett had better hope that nobody ever finds out what he did.

If it gets out, not only with the USA come down on him like a tsumani of spiky metal things, but his own people stand a good chance of just stringing him up.
That's not an "if", that's a when, if not already.

The reestablishment of the DFS would have been alarming enough I think, and the US intelligence and law enforcement agencies are not clueless or stupid.
 
... There actually aren't quicker ways to die in an air strike.

And I've played Ace Combat so I should know.

But yeah, I feel like the Bartlett situation is going to backfire in such a spectacular fashion. Let's be real here, if the Drug situation escalates out of a desire to become the dictator of Mexico, I really do expect the U.S. to come down, guns blazing to kick him out.
 
And I've played Ace Combat so I should know.

But yeah, I feel like the Bartlett situation is going to backfire in such a spectacular fashion. Let's be real here, if the Drug situation escalates out of a desire to become the dictator of Mexico, I really do expect the U.S. to come down, guns blazing to kick him out.
I don't think the US is stupid enough to pull off an Iraq-mode situation. The UN would be entirely against it.
 
You made my day, Roberto. Hope everything is well.

I'm so glad I made your day! :extremelyhappy: All is very much well with me. My workload will be slackening up shortly, so I'll hopefully have more time to work on this TL!

Your TL for the Gulf War doesn't seem to work out. Having forces in Saudi Arabia was originally a security measure, and while the authorization to actually attack Iraq was close, that was to my knowledge not. Ergo Bush has 60 days from when he starts bombing to stop, and that 60 days is plenty, and forces would "only" have to go back to Saudi Arabia. Iraq is not going to last significantly larger or cause significantly more casualties to the coalition, they had serious structural issues with their military. They may get lucky with a Scud and hit an ammunition ship with a few hundred more dead (as almost happened OTL) but that's about it, even cutting short the air campaign won't really slow down the coalition at all, the Iraqi Army was that bad, they would be the gold standard for military incompetence but the Saudis and Libyans are worse

Admittedly not the focus of the TL

Hmmm...okay, how about this: the Iraqis get lucky with a Scud missile as you suggest, but otherwise fight poorly against the Coalition forces and score no notable victories. However, the Coalition forces' logistics and organization suffer from the rushed nature of the invasion, and the American public watching on CNN get the impression that the War isn't being run as efficiently as it could be. The eventual victory is tainted by the feeling that, up against a more competent enemy, the U.S. Army might not have fared so well. It doesn't have that much bearing on our main story—basically, the point is that the alternate Gulf War leads not to a flag-waving patriotism-fest, but to a debate over America's role in the post Cold War world and the importance of consensus-building in matters of military intervention. This, in turn, increases public pressure on President Bush not to send troops into Mexico.

While the details of the rushed Gulf War can be quibbled with, it's an interesting new take- though the dreadful thing is that even in our timeline the right built a narrative of an American victory denied by a President bowing to pressure to pull out troops before Baghdad.
In this timeline, the Democrats have literally tied the hands of the Commander in Chief. He could have set up a democracy in Baghdad! Freed the Kurds! Fed everyone on the stars and stripes and wrapped orphans in apple pie!

That narrative could have bad consequences down the line.

Indeed—Bush could even use that narrative to help him win re-election. He'll need the help: with a mediocre economy, few concrete foreign policy triumphs to point to, and a soon-to-be-exacerbated drug problem, 1992 will be an uphill battle to say the least.

Speaking of cartels, what's Pablo Escobar up to throughout this whole time?
What he's always done: growing obscenely rich by owning 80% of the world's cocaine supply. And he's about to get even richer, because the expansion of the DFS as well as President Bartlett's negotiations with the cartels will make the drug trade even more lucrative than it already is.

Dear God. Bartlett is allying with the cartels? Basically guarantees at least complete economic embargo of Mexico if found out
I mean after Bartlett reactivated the DFS, You would think the American Government would be suspicious and embed agents into it.
The U.S. has thus far had a very tough time embedding agents into the DFS itself. Many of the agents already know each other, and new recruits are thoroughly vetted by the Government Secretariat. Although the agreement Bartlett strikes with the cartel leaders will make it somewhat easier for moles to break into the agency.

While Bartlett is reactivating the DFS and forging an alliance with the drug cartels, how does he see the US reactions to it coming?

I say that, minding that in 1989 IOTL, and I guess still ITTL, the US invaded Panama to topple Noriega on account of crimes among which, prominently, drug trafficking, and I see here Bartlett going way further than Noriega did. Add to that the memory of the 1985 murder of the DEA agent, and I'd be surprised if the US don't end up invading Mexico to arrest Bartlett in the end.
Anyway, I'm not seeing the US being blind about Bartlett's dealings with the cartels and ignoring it just for sake of avoiding a leftist takeover.

That's not an "if", that's a when, if not already.

The reestablishment of the DFS would have been alarming enough I think, and the US intelligence and law enforcement agencies are not clueless or stupid.

Washington is aware that the DFS itself is corrupt, but President Bush has reluctantly accepted its re-establishment as a necessary measure to counteract internal terrorism (a notion which was reinforced by such events as the assassination of Carlos Salinas, the kidnapping of José López Portillo, and the Selva Rebellion, which sparked similar, if smaller, uprisings in other parts of Mexico). He has been pressuring Bartlett hard to rein in corruption within the agency and break its longtime association with the cartels, but as of 1992, he has few direct means of enforcing this pressure. As noted above, U.S. intelligence agencies have had a highly difficult time embedding agents within the Mexican intelligence community, reducing their direct influence in the country. Economic leverage isn't much of an option either: none of the things America exports to Mexico are particularly vital for maintaining Bartlett's regime, and American purchases of Mexican oil are already low because of the recession, and Bush is afraid that depressing it further will exacerbate the financial problems. Add to that the distractions of the end of the Cold War, the Gulf War, and Bush's own re-election campaign, and you've got a U.S. government that can't pay as much attention to Mexico as it would like to, leaving Bartlett in many respects free to use the DFS as he pleases without too much worry over U.S. interference.

That being said, if and when it does become public knowledge that Bartlett is directly in cahoots with the cartel leaders, things will turn around quite dramatically. A Mexican President who must tolerate some corruption in his security forces in order to ensure their loyalty is something that the U.S. can begrudgingly accept; a Mexican President who forms direct alliances with criminals in order to centralize his power is something that the U.S. will definitely not abide, particularly if the criminals in question are concerned with trafficking drugs to the United States.
 
I never got around to asking this question earlier, but whatever happened to the Governor of Chiapas? Absalom Castellanos? In OTTL he was captured by Subcomandante Insurgente Moisés and put in trial for his crimes? What about this timeline?

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Ah finally caught up! What a great read so far!

I wonder if they're gonna change the name of Venustiano Carranza to something more revolutionary now that Albores is in power....
 
I watched a movie about the Kiki Camarena case; that murder was horrific...

Yeah, Bartlett had better pray that the US doesn't find out about his deals with the cartels...
 
I watched a movie about the Kiki Camarena case; that murder was horrific...

Yeah, Bartlett had better pray that the US doesn't find out about his deals with the cartels...

I will give it a few months before it’s found out. Someone somewhere will be caught and squeal.

And provide evidence.
 
While Bartlett is reactivating the DFS and forging an alliance with the drug cartels, how does he see the US reactions to it coming?

I say that, minding that in 1989 IOTL, and I guess still ITTL, the US invaded Panama to topple Noriega on account of crimes among which, prominently, drug trafficking, and I see here Bartlett going way further than Noriega did. Add to that the memory of the 1985 murder of the DEA agent, and I'd be surprised if the US don't end up invading Mexico to arrest Bartlett in the end.
Anyway, I'm not seeing the US being blind about Bartlett's dealings with the cartels and ignoring it just for sake of avoiding a leftist takeover.

Alternatively, the US could help a certain Coca Cola employee win an election....:p
 
Man, I would love to see another update because of what Bartlett might try to do next.
The next one is about 80% finished. It’s taken a long time because May was a busy month for me, and it’s a narrative piece which usually takes longer for me. Expect the new update within the next couple of days!
 
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