Ainu in the Americas

One of my favourite TLs is the BANW, which began by giving the Arawaks a more advanced navigational package. I was thinking about other possibilities for a neolithic naval expansion having effects around the world. One possibility I thought was the Ainu.

The Ainu, natives to Japan, the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin, are already considered to be related to Amerindians by some scholars. I was thinking about if the Jomon (proto-Ainu) had a better navigational package and more of a naval bent, expanding a single cultural-linguistic community from northern Japan in the East to the Aleutians in the west. As time goes by, I could see them making their way along the Alaskan coastline, displacing locals.

I see it as happening slowly at first, but after 1200 as Ainu are more aggressively displaced by the Japanese moving north they flee enmass to the Aleutians, Alaska or the Pacific Northwest.

What interests me is how this vector could have facilitated the transmission of Eurasian diseases, animals and technology to the New World by way of Ainu exploration, trade and settlement. Assuming a long term period of low intensity interaction followed by increasing intensity as the Japanese displace the Ainu from their traditional lands it could allow part of the Columbian exchange to occur early.

There may be awareness of the New World on the part of East Asian societies, particularly in stories of vast and rich fisheries. This may attract Japanese and Koreans to follow the Ainu trade routes and further facilitate the interactions.

It would mean that some of the Eurasian epidemics in the New World would be introduced early, it could see the early introduction of the horse and ox (both part of Ainu traditional cuisine) to the New World. The technological gap between the Amerindians and the Ainu would be easier to close and they would have more affinity than with the Europeans. If the Japanese, Koreans or Chinese explore the Ainu trade routes attracted by the chilli or chocolate trade then the Americas could become the western edge of the great Asian trading system. Which would change things even more significantly when and if Europeans arrived.
 
I like American early-disease scenarios. It helps level the playing field a bit come colonization.

In a sense, there was a teeny bit of exchange before Columbus, namely the potato, which spread from South America to Polynesia by the 1400s.
 
I doubt in this case that disease will be introduced early. I'd say maybe oxen and possibly POSSIBLY horses. (Even oxen are a bit heavy because can you imagine taking one on an early voyage?) The reason I say diseases are doubtful is b/c of the sheer earliness that the Japanese will start heading upland. Maybe if they had contact with the Chinese first in the Warring states period. But even then...sorry I know your trying to make colonization harder, but the fact of the matter is w/o epic handwavium the Incas/Tlon/Aztecs would not have much of a chance. (Please direct me to an ATL if you find one where they can beat it off better then in the BANW one)
 
The Pacific NW isn't the New World. You can't just assume that some contact at one point means that suddenly civilizations thousands of miles away to the south have disease resistance and new technological packages.

Remember that Amerindian groups in the interior of the continents were still routinely getting wiped out by disease in the 19th C., because they hadn't been hit by the massive plagues yet.

Asia was part of the same continent as Europe and had longstanding trade ties, but on occasion the plagues (and the technologies) took a long time to move from one place to another.

That said, this is an interesting timeline, not because of what affect it might have on Meso-America, but just because of the effects it might have on the Pacific NW and later North American history.
 
Dude, I didn't even really mention the Mesoamericans or Andeans. I'll concede that they're pretty much out of range, although if the Ainu were more navigationally minded they might wander down there. You're both right, the effects would be mainly situated on the Pacific Northwest.

I'm so-so about the disease thing, however. Japanese-brought diseases were instrumental in weakening the Ainu in OTL, ITTL those same diseases could be spread to the Pacific Northwest by those Ainu fleeing the Japanese. However, I am aware that it's not going to be the entire Eurasian disease package. I can see the Amerindians of the Pacific Northwest, with long term contacts with the Ainu and later the Japanese and Koreans, having a higher disease tolerance than in OTL. But not completely, as the Ainu too have historically been vulnerable to smallpox, cholera and such.

I'm more interested in trying to tie the Pacific Northwest into the Asian system of trade routes, the survival of the empires in the south are neither here nor there. The latter is both too difficult to do plausibly, and it's been done so many times already.

It would be good to work out a timeline. The most likely point for the beginnings of Ainu in America would probably be the Middle Jomon period, a period in which the climate was warm, the seas higher and the population surplus. It is believed by scholars that OTL the Jomon expansion reached America, so we just fiddle with it and make it so the Jomon are able to colonise the Aleutians with a better navigational package. This period, coincident with the Holocene Climatic Optimum, is around 3000-2000 BC.

Things will slow down, a lot, as the temperature cools. For a millenia I don't see much different, except perhaps some shifting around of people in Alaska as the Ainu displace Aleuts, who displace Eskimo peoples, etc. So far, the Jomon will have not expanded much further than the Aleutians. Another change happens in the Final Jomon period, 1000 BC to 400, when the Jomon people are displaced by the Yayoi culture. Unlike OTL, the Jomon are somewhat familiar (or at least aware) with the lands to the East and have a more naval experience, so some flee eastward, pushing the expansion of the Ainu peoples to the Alaska and down the Pacific northwest coastline.

During the Yayoi period (500 BC to 300 AD), there develops trade links stretching along the Ainu coast to Hokkaido, bringing a variety of items to the Pacific Northwest: tools of stone, bronze and iron and domesticated pigs. Rice may make the jump, or the more traditional Ainu crops of deccan grass, wheat and millet. This trade is likely to continue, a trickle from Asia to the New World. However, if this trickle continues to flow from the Yayoi period onwards, thats almost two thousand years of diffusion. Even with the inherant limitations, that must have a huge effect.

With farming, trade and exploitation of rich fisheries, the Pacific Northwest is likely to become well-populated and relatively advanced compared to the technological centres of the south. I see contact with Mesoamerica as likely, though the civilizations we know of course will be butterflied away. This carries corn, chilli, tomatoes and chocolate to Asia, though probably not potatoes. This will likely happen pretty late in the scheme of things.

As for the horse in America, well, the horse was introduced to Japan after 250 AD, so it might take awhile to spread to the New World. But with this time frame, there's certainly enough time for horses to be in North America by perhaps 1000 AD.

I'm not sure how plausible a butterfly net around all this would be, but if we go with how things went OTL, there may be another expansion of Ainu to the New World in the 15th century as the Japanese penetrate Hokkaido. They would follow the Aleutian routes to the Ainu and other post-Jomon culture centres of the Pacific Northwest, whose populations will probably be significantly higher than those of Hokkaido at any rate. Horse, sheep, pigs and goats would be present, as would agriculture and metallurgy (though not much, and in general these people would be importers, not manufacturors). These would have had centuries to spread independently across North America, probably causing an initial die-off and a complete revolution of the native cultures. S

We may see Japanese and Koreans in the region, perhaps fisherman, merchants or Buddhist missionaries. I see them as being a marginal, but continuing, influence.
 
Now missionaries, that's interesting. Of course I'm an amateur but I speculate that unless the Ainu develop a semi-permanent settlement in Asia (maybe a bit north of Manchuria) they won't have regular contact with the America's. Otherwise they may end up losing contact like the Greenland Vikings. (Of course vikings is incorrect, Norsemen is more correct...sorta)
 
Uh, the Ainu live in Hokkaido and Sakhalin, both of which are in Asia. You are right about the climatic issue.

From what I know, the climatic effects of warm and cool periods throughout history was similar in the north Pacific and Japan as it was in the North Atlantic and Europe. So, assuming Ainu in the Aleutians from an ancient point, the Roman Optimal Point of climatic warmth which corresponds roughly with the Yayoi period might see an expansion of the Ainu down the Pacific Northwest and contacts with Asia until the beginning of the Dark Ages Cool Period in around 300-450 AD.

This lasts until roughly 800-900 AD, where the Medieval warm period begins. With a few centuries of cruising and expanding along the Pacific Northwest, competing and interacting with the native peoples, under their belt, the Ainu expand west as the situation gets warmer and they strike up contacts with their brethren in Sakhalin and Hokkaido.

The newcomers bring trade goods with them: exotic furs, ivory, blueberries, huckleberries, corn and tobacco. Trade with Heian Japan and Goryeo Korea begins, exchanging New World items for manufactured goods, silk, iron weapons, tea, ginseng and such. Over the centuries the trade expands and the Ainu merchants become wealthier, they expand their trade ties on both sides of the Pacific, trading Mesoamerican cocoa and pecans to Song China. Japan in this period is relatively poor, many may turn to the new crops with enthusiasm, or take to piracy.

Japanese and Korean encroachment, Mongol expansion and the onset of the Little Ice Age will do much to break down the trade networks. But by this stage, a significant portion of the Columbian exchange would have taken place with effects on both the Old World and the New.

After 1300 the trade will become more and more difficult, and many of the crops and plants would have already been disseminated throughout Asia. With costs increasing and profits falling, the Ainu trade dies down, the pirate bases in the Aleutians are abandoned, the movement of people and goods between Asia and America slows to a trickle. Asian manufactured goods will become rare symbols of status among the Ainu and other peoples of the Pacific Northwest.

Plausible? Where would it go from here?
 
Dude, I didn't even really mention the Mesoamericans or Andeans. I'll concede that they're pretty much out of range, although if the Ainu were more navigationally minded they might wander down there. You're both right, the effects would be mainly situated on the Pacific Northwest.

Gotcha. Sorry.
 
Plausible? Where would it go from here?

Yep, plausible. Pretty interesting.

I have no idea what a partial Columbian exchange to the Far East does. Potato is a worldbeater, but its not part of the exchange here.

Even though you, realistically, have the trade mostly shut down after the medieval warm period shuts down, I think you're still left with a much richer and more settled Pacific Northwest (and probably California), and probably even with some more disease resistance. From 30k feet, this probably means a lot more European colonial interest in those areas. What would a hispanified Oregonian mestizo society look like? We might find out.

The effects elsewhere in the New World are a lot harder to predict.
 
The most likely native people in my opinion for the Pacific Northwest Ainu to establish trade relations with would like be the settled pueblo cultures of the Southwest. Those with direct contact with the Ainu and the Asian trade will be affected the most by Asian disease, crops and animals. The next most affected will be the immediate trade partners, the Pueblo people of the southwest. And then further out, Mississippian and Mesoamerican peoples will likely experience indirect effects. Natives along the Eastern coast of North America and all of South America will remain unaffected.

I think it is unlikely for this trade to continue for this length of time without at least one epidemic in the New World. One possibility is the Black Death, which will come in just as the trade is becoming more difficult due to the declining temperatures. If the Black Death spreads through the Ainu's pueblo trade partners to Mesoamerica, it will have as much if not more effect on the population as smallpox.

There is also the issue of the pigs. When Hernando de Soto cruised around the American Southwest in the OTL 16th century, he brought pigs with him, many of which escaped and are believed to have introduced zootropic diseases that decimated the Mississipians and their descendants. This is likely to happen earlier, in the Pacific Northwest and California, but I don't know how far those would spread.

Millet will be farmed by the Ainu, and spread to other nearby peoples. Rice may spread there doing the Medieval Trade Period, or it might not. In general, I think that the Pacific Northwest Ainu's agriculture will be hardly extensive, mainly just a supplement to hunting and fishing (just as OTL's Ainu).

One interesting possibility is the spread of silk production to Mexico, being used as for clothing production for the elite as well as mundane purposes such as bowstrings.

Since the Asian trade routes operated in gold, it is possible that the Ainu trade would see Mexican gold being exchanged for Asian products. This will mean an influx of gold capital into Asia, and less gold in Mexico for the Europeans when they arrive. Mesoamericans will also be somewhat familiar with gunpowder (fireworks), horses, steel weapons (probably swords of Japanese, Korean and Chinese make carried by the elite of the Ainu, Southwest farmers and to a lesser extent Mesoamericans) and have a slightly higher disease tolerance thanks to the ravages of the Black Death in the 14th century.

Tobacco would likely be a particularly valued trade item, for exactly the same reasons as OTL. Abbasid traders in Korea may carry it to the Middle East, and perhaps Europe. Chicle chewing gum and cocoa as well. Cocoa and tobacco being grown in South East Asia before the European expansion probably would severely alter patterns of colonisation.

I imagine a culture similar to OTL Ainu, but more dominated by long-distance traders. They are a mixed people, as the original Jomon have been intermarrying with Aleuts, Eskimo and Pacific Northwest peoples for centuries (as well as some more adventurous Japanese and Koreans) They live by hunting and fishing for the most part, supplemented by millet agriculture and the rearing of horse, pigs, deer bears and other animals for consumption. Their political leaders (particularly the powerful traders) dress in silk and carry steel swords of Asian manufacture. They smoke tobacco, drink green tea and hot cocoa and chew ginseng gum. They will range from the Aleutians in the north to California in the south, with cultural influence over the settled peoples of the Southwest, who recover from the Black Death and adopt the horse and millet agriculture. They don't have metallurgy, or if they do its a secret known by only a few select individuals, perhaps a caste descended from Japanese or Korean immigrants.

They will, of course, by conquered by Europeans, most likely the Spanish. But the resulting culture is sure to be interesting.
 
Urusai[InFi];2149831 said:
I doubt in this case that disease will be introduced early. I'd say maybe oxen and possibly POSSIBLY horses. (Even oxen are a bit heavy because can you imagine taking one on an early voyage?)

But aren't farm animals the origin of old world diseases? And after some voyages, they would surely bring them.
 
Pro meaning good. Someone made a map of extended Ainu country in Kamchatka and the Aleutians, with a British Tatary and a Saxon Alaska. Not sure what thread its in though.
 
Huh, sorry it ain't me. I'm working on a TL where among the POD's this is one of them (It's kind of a nod to the first thread I ever visited on AH.com)
 
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