Hello, fellow AH buffs... err, enthusiastic scholars. I'm delighted to have discovered this forum and to come in such distinguished company. Please allow me to claim somewhat of a novice's privilege by asking to start discussin on two of my most preferred AH scenarioes ever. One is pre-1900, the other is post-1900, but they are akin in that they are rather of a right-wing philo-USA, philo-German, anti-Soviet wank. I hope to make them plausible enough, although.
Further disclosure of bias and influence: both scenarioes are heavily influenced by reading Robert Blumetti's AH books. While I may not go as extreme in my right-wing sympathies as that author (i.e. while I'm all for AH of heroic Germany, USA, Britannia, European Union, or Eternal Roman Empire conquering the world and bringing it into utopia, outright racism is not a necessary or relished part of the scenario.), I do like his work a lot.
The relevant here, is the following: either during the Revolutions of 1848, or after the 1866 Austro-Prussian war (either scenario is good for our discussion, even if I somewhat prefer the latter as it allows to keep Bismarck central in the timeline), the Hapsburg Empire collapses due to the secession of Hungary, Germany unifies under Prussian direction with the Grossdeutschland model with Austria, Silesia, Slovenia, and Bohemia-Moravia (if necessary a dynastic pact which combines the Hapsburgs and the Hohenzollern in one enlarged family can be set up). Hungary becomes independent in a kingdom which embraces Transylvania, Slovakia, and Croatia. Italy unifies under Piedmont's direction and is awarded Lonbardy, Venice, Trento (Germany keeps South Tyrol), Triest, Istria, and Dalmatia. Lazio (but not the rest of Papal States) might be kept in the Pope's hands by French intervention.
Greater Germany gets a modified federal Bismarck-like constitution which includes universal suffrage, basic generalized social welfare, parliamentary initiative, a Chancellor and ministers that are responsible to both the Reichstag and the Kaiser, but have veto powers on laws and line veto on appropriation bills, permanent allowances for basic budget of the government and the military are enshrined in the consitution (the Chancellor needs parliamentary assent to modify the budget, but the Reichstag cannot cause the goverment to shut down or starve the military from lack of funds under the current budget).
Greater Germany, Italy, and Hungary join in a full Triple Alliance. Since they do not have conflicting national claims, the alliance is quite stable, and strong economical and political links take root.
During the unifications, Russia's opposition is mollified by ceding Galicia, and they are also distracted by a failed Polish uprising. France is mollified by being ceded Nice, Savoy, Luxembourg, and secret promises for supporting the partition of Belgium. They may also be distracted by ongoing involvement in Mexico. The UK keeps neutral.
In a few years, however, France attempts to redress the Balance of Power to its benefit by a pre-emptive war against Germany. But the German-Italian alliance quickly crushes it, and they lose Alsace-Lorraine and Luxembourg to Germany, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica to Italy. They keep strongly resentful and revancist for decades. Italians liberate Rome if the French were protecting the Pope.
The Russian-Turkish war of 1877-78 occurs in a similar way to OTL, but Hungary annexes Bosnia-Hercegovina. Resentful Russia grows closer to France and in time the Franco-Russian Dual Entente takes shape.
USA undergoes a more prolonged and intense imperalistic-expansionistic drive ITTL, and they fight two wars with Spain and the UK before the end of the 19th century. They annex Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Bahamas, and all of English Canada in the process, Quebec and the Philippines are set up as protectorates. UK-USA animosity lingers until the turn of the century, but eventually reconciliation settles on the unspoken acknowledgement that the American continents are USA's exclusive turf, and USA have little business to meddle in British sphere of influence). Additional Constitutional amendments to OTL are passed that give line-item veto for appropriation bills to the President, a non-voting seat in Congress to Cabinet members, and mandate that any law will relate to one subject only.
Shaken from the defeat, and fearing the looming threat of France and Russia on its Empire, the UK growas closer to Germany, and the Anglo-German Entente is signed by the turn of the 20th Century. Germany agrees to keep its fleet the same size of France, and talks for coordination of land and sea forces in case of defensive war against a third party are done. The Germany-Hungary-Italy becomes the Quadruple Alliance with the UK. As a consequence, the Franco-Russian Dual Entente is strengthened.
French assistance causes Russian-Japan war to end in a tie (Japan wins by land, but the combined French-Russian fleet wins the Battle of Port Arthur), and a compromise peace, which leaves Manchuria as a Russian Protectorate, while Japan annexes Korea. A smarting Japan signs a full alliance with the British.
Germany supports the UK in the Boer War, and a Dominion of South Africa takes shape at the end of the war. Southern Rhodesia and Bechuanaland join the Dominion. When Portugal subsequently goes bankrupt, they seize its colonies, Germany gets Angola and UK gets Mozambico. The Anglo-German alliance inspires Afrikaans and British settlers to reconcile in a hybrid South African culture and nationality, and they open up the country to European immigration. White population soars rapidly and African natives are increasingly diminished and marginalized like Native Americans were in North America. Eventually ATL South Africa becomes the equivalent of OTL Canada.
France and Italy repeatedly clash for control of the Magreb, France tries to wrest Lybia from Italian control and Italy to grab Tunisia from France. Similar tensions occur between German Cameroon and French Congo.
As the Ottoman Empire grows ever closer to collapse, Slavic nationalities in the Ottoman Empire agitate for independence and eventually widespread rebellion occurs in the Balkans. Russian satellites Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria expel the Turks from Europe and occupy Constantinople. Then Greece, Serbia, and Romania turn on Bulgaria and grab its slice of the spoils. Bulgaria leaves Russia's sphere of influence, and signs a defensive pact with the Triple Alliance and the UK. A reformist Young Turk revolution sweeps Anatolia and they seek protection from the Anglo-German Alliance. Serbia threatens the newly independent Albania which is under Italian protection and stirs agitation in the Slavic subjects of Hungary. Eventually a generalized European conflict between the Franco-Russian Dual Entente, and the British-German-Hungarian-Italian Quadruple Alliance erupts.
In the meanwhile, Mexico is in the throes of its revolution, and rebel activity spills over the Arizona/New Mexico border. An outraged USA declares war, and the Second Mexican-American War erupts. Eventually the USA vanquish and pacify Mexico. Mexico may even try to ally outright with the Entente (say a Reversed Zimmerman telegram). If it is so, the USA may enter the war early on the Alliance's side, even if they don't send that troops abroad until they have quelled Mexican resistance. They annex it up to the Mexico City line, and set up the rump as a protectorate. This conflict keeps their hands tied for the first part of the Great War, but they eventually turn their gaze to Europe, torn between neutrality and sympathy for the Anglo-German fight against Russian autocracy. Lingering minority sympathies for France from alliance in the War of Independence remain, but they are overwhelmed by positive feelings toward the Allies from Americans of Anglo-Saxon, German, and Italian descent.
Is it possible that France and/or Russia try submarine warfare against UK and Germany ? This would surely anger the American into intervention.
Two scenarioes:
The UK declare war on both Russia and France, blockade French and Russian ports, and send the BEF to march together with the Germans through Belgium into France and through Poland into Russia, as well as fighting Russia in Afghanistan. (This is the one I favor, likely means a shortened war, quite possibly a year or less).
The UK declares war on Russia only, blockade its ports, and defend India from Russia. (likely means the war lasts somewhat longer, 1-2 years, 3 at the very most, but in all likelihood not more than that).
In both cases, Germany and Italy fight France, and Germany and Hungary fight Russia. In the Balkans, Serbia, Greece, and Romania side with Russia, Bulgaria sides with the CP.
After a while, Japan honors the treaty with the UK and attacks Russia on the Yalu.
USA may stay neutral, or may eventually declare war on France-Russia if war goes on long enough. Three possible casus belli: Entente meddiling in Mexico, Entente submarine warfare, Russian meddling in China. USA intervention likely shortens the war even more, and helps crush the resistance of Russia and China.
China allies with Russia attempting to cast off the yoke of the Europeans and Japanese (Russian seizure of Manchuria is conveniently ignored for the time being). Russia sends large Weapon shipments for the Chinese government and nationalist guerrillas. Repetition of Boxer-like atrocities against Western residents and Westernized Chinese occur. A large combined British-German-Japanese-Italian-Hungarian expeditionary force is formed to "pacify" China.
If atrocities against resident Americans and attacks against civilian ships are widespread enough, and evidence of widespread Russian support (as well as evidence and inflated propaganda against similar Czarist practices to quell rebellious minorities) surfaces, the USA declares war on Russia and China (if they haven't done so already, over the Entente Zimmerman telegram), joins the expeditionary force in China and sends troops to invade Siberia.
If they enter war early, because of Entente-Mexican dealings, and/or Franch/Russian submarine warfare, they might even send soldiers to France... if it isn't vanquished already.
Spain and Portugal may, or may not, join the fray on Entente's side, as may Sweden on the alliance's side.
Eventually the Franco-Russian-Chinese Entente is defeated.
What course this WWI takes ? Does it take a few months, or several years ? Do the Quadruple Alliance employs a Russia First or France First strategy ? Does the USA enter the conflict ? Do France and/or ? Russia collapse from revolution, or is it pure military defeat ? Will Quebec rebel in sympathy for France, and/or Mexico try to shake off Yankee yoke if they enter the Europan fry ? Hopw long it takes to defeat France, Russia, and China ?
Does the war go on long enough to cause the same kind of massive social change that OTL WWI causes, or is it too brief and the Victorian model endures ?
British-German dominance is likely to eventually cause some kind of Fabian/Socialdemocratic/Keynesian/Bismarckian welfare state to take root in the areas they control and influence. But what about feminism and sexual mores ?
Unless a French or Russian fascism manages to perform some kind of ATL Holocaust, racism, Social Darwinism, and eugenetics are likely to remain respectable ideologies, even more so if Communism never develops or is crushed in WWII. This may mean Europe is rather more ruthless in resisting the dismantling of the colonial empires, esp. toward cultures that are acknowledged as devoid of value in Victorian sensibilities (e.g. India becomes an ATL Algeria or Vietnam, Europeans use Native-American-like ethnic cleansing to colonize areas of Africa that are espacially rich in natural resources, like Congo, or fit for massive European settlement,like Southern Africa, Kenya, and Uganda).
Scientific and technological advancement is likely to progress at the very least as much or rather more than in OTL, since the main nations that drive it in OTL (UK, Germany, USA) are the dominant superpowers of the timeline. To what degree scientific and technological advancement may get a boost in comparison to OTL, if ever ? OTOH, France is a resentful marginalized nation, quite possibly a fascist or communist pariah, which means French dominance in literature and the arts, and Paris' status as the interwar acknowledged cultural capital of the world are butterflied away. If the ATL is brief and relatively bloodless, there won't be a generation of socially-alienated veterans which may fuel socio-political extremism in the victorious nations, no widespread questioning of Victorian culture, no shortage of males to fuel women's emancipation.
What about the peace settlement ? It is surely as harsh against France/Russia as Versailles/St. Germain was to Germany and A-H.
Some suggested brush strokes about a reverse Versailles Treaty (different name ?): Russia cedes Finland, Baltic States, Belarus, Congress Poland, and Ukraine which become German satellites, as does Romania (which however gets Bessarabia). Caucasus is returned to Turkey (Christian Armenia as German-British satellite ?). Italy annexes Algeria, Tunisia, Albania, Montenegro, Ionian Isles and Dodecaneso. France cedes a strip of land up to the Nancy-Epinal-Belfort line, and the Calais-Dunkerque-Lille is ceded to Belgium. They cede Magreb to Italy, African colonies are partitioned between France and Germany, the UK annex New Caledonia and the French naval bases around the world. Japan gets Manchuria, Sakhalin, and the Vladivostok area up to the Amur. Bulgaria gets Macedonia and Thrace, Constantinople and the Straits are under nominal Turkey suzerainety, but German-British occupation.
If USA have entered the war, they might try to pass a slightly less harsh peace compromise. However, the USA follow a more imperialistic path ITTL, so idealistic Wilsonianism remains a fringe minority, and Theodore Roosevelt's Progressive Republicanism, home reform of capitalism's abuses, imperialism abroad, is the dominant model. Theodore does get its third mandate, and maybe a fourth one, if election occurs during wartime. ITTL, Theodore quite possibly manages to replicate the feats and lasting legacy that his cousin Franklin achieves in OTL a generation later. A version of the XXII Amendment may be eventually passed ITTL, but it gives a limit of three consecutive mandates.
France and Russia (if they haven't collapsed in revolution) are forced to demilitarize and pay heavy reparations. In the Allied countries's popular culture, Russia is vilified as barbarian "Mongol" murderous hordes that tried to sweep European civilization (much propaganda is done during the war about the Czarist atrocities against its subject peoples), while the French are painted as recidivist expansionist warmongers which have been trying to dominate Europe for centuries, from Louis XIV to Napoleon. They are forced to pay heavy reparations.
China is partitioned between UK, Germany, and Japan. Likely USA object to outright colonial subjugation, even if they favor indirect economic penetration and political puppetering. Does disllusionement from UK/German/Italian greed cause America to turn isolationist and entrenched in their Monroe turf, as in OTL, or do they remain involved (most likely in Asia) ?
And the post-war world ? Can a WWII ever occur ? Say clash between Japan and USA/UK/Germany over China and South East Asia, a rematch between France/Russia and Germany/UK/USA ? Does France seek revenge under a fascist regime ? Does Bolshevik Russian Revolution and communism ever occurs ? Can a Franch or a Russian Hitler occur ? What about a Paris-Moscow-Japan Axis, or a Moscow-Peking Comintern ? Will the Holocaust occur under a French or Russian racist fascism ? What's the fate of the Third World ? What kind of ideology can they use for their nationalist movements, if communism doesn't exist, or it is crushed for good when Soviet Union is vanquised for good in WWII ? Possibly, religious extremism ? May early Khomeini and Osama or their Hindu/Confucian equivalents become the rallying points of violent anticolonialism ?
France and Russia are certainly econimic hyperinflation hellholes for a while, but is the war disruptive enough to eventually trigger a Great Depression, or UK/German/USA combined econimies are strong enough ?
What about Sionism ? Russian pogroms during the war certainly add drive to the movement for a Jewish homeland, but where does it get eventually founded ? Palestine ? Uganda ? A possible good candidate may be Madagascar, which France is forced to hand over.
The most likely post-WWI scenario sees the UK-German alliance as masters of three continents even if Japan plots to seize control of East and South East Asia, China and India are restless under colonial boots. The USA consolidates their quasi-colonial mastery of South America, and casts a greedy eye on Asian markets, even if its ambitions are cloaked in anti-colonial propaganda. France and Russia itch for a rematch at war domination under communist and/or fascist regimes. China is a hotbed of nationalist anger under whatever ideology becomes a rallying point.