Irioth
Banned
After 1878 Muslims were a majority in the remaining parts of the Ottoman Balkans,
Bzzt. Wrong. Not in Macedonia, nor in Thrace. Only in Albania, and their Islam is probably the most nominal ever in the world.
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Albania
and the empire enjoyed a vastly superior military establishment in terms of manpower, training, doctrine, and equipment.
Any of the Balkan successor states, taken individually, probably. Absolutely not any of the Great Powers. And that's why after unsuccessful tries from Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria to oust them on their own, they joined in the Balkan League, and kicked out the Sultan's nether parts.
Despite the efforts of everyone, they had held onto the remaining territory for decades.
Beacuse the British Empire propped them up for decades and barred Russia's way since they fearful of the Czar grabbing the Straits, and because Russia and A-H blocked each other's way at delivering the killing blow. Had the Great Powers ever agreed to a decent way of partitioning the mad Balkan ethnic puzzle in way that was minimally stable and threatened not every one's vital interests, the Ottoman Empire would not have last a couple years more in Europe.
There is just no way the Powers will allow Russia to swoop in and seize Constantinople,
This is quite true, it was a casus belli for UK, Germany, and A-H, but that's another thing entirely. This is a basic assumption of this scenario. Personally, I'm quite unpersuaded that the Balkan Wars were but the natural outcome of a long-delayed process.
But if you prefer, we may modify the casus belli as follows:
Any or all of Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria declare war on the Ottomans to free their brothers, they lose some battles, they cry help to the Czar, Russians decide they have been countered in their Panslavist goals one time too many in the past and won't back down now. They ask Turkey to withdraw from Europe. Turkey refuses, and asks help from the Quadruple Alliance. A combined British/German/Italian Fleet blocks the Straits, and Hungary sends troops to the border. Russia mobilizes and delivers an ultimatum to Turkey. UK and Germany quickly consult, and deliver a counter-ultimatum. Russia declares war on Turkey. UK and Germany declare war on Russia. France declares war on Germany. UK declares war on France. Italy declares war on France, Hungary declares war on Russia. Etc. The merry go round starts.
But the important fact here is, even if Turkey is on the winning side ITTL, they surely will be compensated with plenty of additional territory in Caucasus, Middle East, and Central Asia. They won't be returned with direct suzerainety over any European territory but the tiny rump around Constantinople. Possession of any significant European territory with Christian population by an Islamic power was (and is) a strong political taboo and an anachronism that the (Christian) Great Powers were reluctantly willing tolerate to linger in lack of a better compromise, but which won't ever act or allow to reinstate, once it falls.
So in the post-war settlement, Thrace, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia etc. will be made protectorates of the victorious Great Powers, or awarded in various guises to the Balkan successor states, that will be made puppets, one and all, of the Quadruple Alliance. Not to Turkey.
You might recall the Ottomans were able to hold out against Russia and Britain combined for three years in WWI, even winning some significant victories.
Please. The British generals' horrendous blunders at Gallipoli aren't anyone's proof of military or political strength.
As for the Russo-Ottoman war, I don't see how Hungary has any hope of taking and holding Bosnia - their whole reason for remaining under the Hapsburgs was for imperial help in holding Croatia.
Instead, ITTL they now get help from Greater Germany, a much more healthy power, and indirect help as in sated Italians won't stab them in the back. An excellent deal, I'd say.
Bosnia would hopelessly tip the ethnic balance against the Magyars, and it was the Hungarians that were totally opposed to taking Bosnia in the first place.
Good point. Then let's say that instead of ever annexing them directly, Bosnia stays a protectorate of Hungary, under whatever Hapsburg, Hohenzollern, Wittelsbach, or Savoia thrice-removed cadet they can find willing to get the duchy of Bosnia or whatever. At most, they mollify their Croat subjects by annexing Hercegovina with its Croat majority, which doesn't tilt the ethnic balance too much, I'd say.
An independent Hungary would do anything to prevent a Russian invasion of the Ottoman Empire and the establishment of strong Slavic statelets in its underbelly, as these would be the death of Hungary, which rules a very large Slavic population. Even Rumania would have its eyes on Hungary, which has it's target #1, Transylvania.
This is a very good point. But it confirms the assumptions of the scenario. Esp. if we follow the modified casus belli I'd described above. Any of the Quadruple Alliance (even Italy, which sees its Ionian interests threatened) has a strong interest in not letting Russia get the Straits. They act. France can't let its one strong ally alone, lest they be suffocated by the hostile UK/Germany/Italy combo, which covet its colonies. They act too.
Once Russia decides to gamble on bullying Turkey, and we assume the same tangle of misunderstanding, bungled brinkmanship, flawed military plans, overconfidence, and knee-jerk escalation which triggered OTL WWI, the ATL France/Russia vs. UK/SuperGermany/Hungary/Italy WWI becomes just as irresistible.
BTW, I worry that Dual Entente vs. Quadruple Alliance may not be sufficiently cool a name for the timeline. Suggestions, anyone ? I suck at poetic language.
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