AHQ: Willy II dies, and Bismarck gets to work until his death. What happens now?

[Alexei]

After rereading 'Es Geloybte Aretz' I want to know how the Empire would go had Bismarck done his thing for even longer?

Would conflict with Britain be more unlikely, how would the political Climate at home have gone? Would WW1 still be inevitable or would we celebrate the 100th Anniversary of the Congress?

How you would do this is up to you, I'm not well-versed in Pre-WW German Politics, so I'm curious as to what y'all would do?

Cheers, Alexei.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Probably the Russo-German Reinsurance Treaty lasts longer? It was always Bismarck’s goal to isolate France and the Russian-French Alliance only developed when the Germans abandoned their Russophile diplomacy. This in turn only came about because Holstein had increased influence in the vacuum created by Bismarck’s dismissal.

 

[Catspoke]

Russo-German relations could unravel just the same, the Russians were annoyed about Germany's perceived favoritism to Austria about the Congress of Berlin 1878, and trade issues will creep up.
At some point Russia might just feel the need to ally with someone reliable against the strongest power (Germany).
And France is willing to invest $

On the other hand the German-Russian boundary is not in dispute (1815 Congress of Vienna), and same way with the Austrian-Russian border. I don't see any reason Russia can't remain friendly with Germany at some level, i.e a non aggression pact at a minimum, if Germany can keep Austria on a leash. i.e. Something like guaranteeing Austria's per 1878 boundaries and that is it.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Russo-German relations could unravel just the same, the Russians were annoyed about Germany's perceived favoritism to Austria about the Congress of Berlin 1878, and trade issues will creep up.
At some point Russia might just feel the need to ally with someone reliable against the strongest power (Germany).
And France is willing to invest $

The point is Bismarck worked hard to keep the Russians on side and the French isolated. With Bismarck still around, this continues. There were issues with maintaining relations with the Russians, that is obvious, but the existence of the Reinsurance Treaty (a secret deal that explicitly threw the Austrians under the bus) shows how important the Russian aspect of Bismarck’s foreign policy was to him. To claim with Bismarck still around and in power things would go as OTL, makes no sense to me.
Of course the French were willing to invest, they were desperate for an alliance against the Germans. They would do practically anything required to gain an ally, especially one with the “advantages” Russia had.

On the other hand the German-Russian boundary is not in dispute (1815 Congress of Vienna), and same way with the Austrian-Russian border. I don't see any reason Russia can't remain friendly with Germany at some level, i.e a non aggression pact at a minimum, if Germany can keep Austria on a leash. i.e. Something like guaranteeing Austria's per 1878 boundaries and that is it.

A non-aggression Pact is not “some level”, it is a massive diplomatic undertaking and would make a sham of any French alliance the Russians might work out.

OTL, the reactionary autocracy of Tsarist Russia only turned to the democratic Republic of France when the Germans abandoned them, there is no ‘natural’ alignment between the two.

 

[Onkel Willie]

I'd agree with @Stenz that it's likely that the positive relations between Germany and Russia are likely to continue. If he realizes the Russians are more useful to Germany than Austria-Hungary and that the Russians were quite miffed about the Congress of Berlin, he might even go further than the Reinsurance Treaty and make some secret division of the Balkans into spheres of influence. If word gets out, it would piss off Austria-Hungary. The question is if it would piss them off enough to leave the Central Powers: if cooler heads prevail, then they won't because they'll come to the realization that an alliance with France wouldn't be of any help against a Russo-German alliance, especially since Italy would more likely than not join such an alliance in any future war. Austria-Hungary could be persuaded to reluctantly agree to reconstituting the Three Emperors League. Now that would be a power house, provided that whoever succeeds Bismarck doesn't screw it up. If Austria-Hungary does the stupid thing (i.e. throwing a temper tantrum, and leaving the CPs) it'll wind up being partitioned by its neighbours in a future war.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Austria and Russia have aligning interests in the Balkans and joint action is one way to resolve them, as opposed to hostility and trying to use each other’s weaknesses against the foe as OTL.

 

[oberdada]

Bismarck does not have the time in his retirement to promote his own legend.

While he would surely renew the Treaty with Russia (the Russians wanted to) it had in 1887 already been to little, to late.
Economic warfare against Russia had pushed the country towards France.
So it will not make that much of a difference in the long run.

He would have kept the Sozialistengesetz, despite the fact that it wasn't working very well.

With an early death of Wilhelm II für Empire gets more than a decade with an underaged monarch.
Even if Print Heinrich becomes regent.
This, together with the strong personality of Bismarck will move power away from the crown.
The Reichstag is going to demand some of that power


There would likely be less funding for the navy.

No diplomatic faux-pas of Wilhelm II. can only improve things.

Having an underage Kaiser

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Would conflict with Britain be more unlikely, how would the political Climate at home have gone? Would WW1 still be inevitable or would we celebrate the 100th Anniversary of the Congress?

Without Willies obsession with matching the Royal Navy relations between Britain and Germany are going to be a lot better. They'll be thought of as more family than rivals.

 

[Alanith]

Without Willies obsession with matching the Royal Navy relations between Britain and Germany are going to be a lot better. They'll be thought of as more family than rivals.

Wonder how disturbed that England will be in turn with France and Russia teaming up, supposedly with an Anti-German alliance but... you have to wonder what their real goal is...

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Wonder how disturbed that England will be in turn with France and Russia teaming up, supposedly with an Anti-German alliance but... you have to wonder what their real goal is...

Why are France and Russia going to be “teaming up” ITTL?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

If Britain and Germany become close then the relationship between Germany and Russia will suffer during the Russo-Japanese War and in particular after the Dogger Bank incident. France is likely to step into the gap to gain a potential ally in the war to regain Alsace Lorraine that France wants if it can find an excuse to provoke it.

 

[AussieHawker]

Bismarck could do a lot of damage internally. His anti-socialist campaigns were building in intensity, and he even said he wished to provoke them into revolt to crush them. His internal politicals are going to continue growing unpopular, and there will be demand to replace him. The new Kaiser not being available means he could continue on with a coalition, instead of being removed

Internationally, there were forces against Germany growing without Germany's input. The diplomacy is still changing, and it isn't a guarantee that he continues to remain effective. Parliamentary leaders that stay too long have a habit of losing effectiveness or screwing up.