When it comes to the Iberian Union, there's much discussion about how it impacted both the countries of Portugal and Spain. However, what's often overlooked is how the Iberian Union impacted the colonial empire of Portugal. Specifically, was the Iberian Union a net good or was it negative when it comes to the expansion of the Portuguese Empire? If you have a TL without it (Sebastian doesn't die in Morocco and has a heir), would the Portuguese Empire end up smaller (Would Brazil have been allowed to expand so much without the Union?) or would it be bigger, with even more colonies throughout the Americas, Africa, Asia and possibly Oceania?
 
Bigger, easily. Otl that period saw decades of war with traditionally friendly states like England and france and that sucked resources out of Portugal that would've gone to empire.

Well, I shouldnt say easily, but still the iberian union was a disaster for Portugal because, frankly, Spain's foreign policy was a mess
 
Bigger, easily. Otl that period saw decades of war with traditionally friendly states like England and france and that sucked resources out of Portugal that would've gone to empire.

Well, I shouldnt say easily, but still the iberian union was a disaster for Portugal because, frankly, Spain's foreign policy was a mess
Thanks for answering! If you don't mind, how much do you personally think Portugal would have colonized? A Portuguese La Plata? A Lusophone Australia/New Zealand? Maybe a Portuguese-speaking South Africa?

And another question, could you elaborate on what you said about the Iberian Union sucking resources out of Portugal? My knowledge about this subject is very bad, but if you don't want to, you don't need to tell me
 
Thanks for answering! If you don't mind, how much do you personally think Portugal would have colonized?
honestly not something I can say for certain, though I suspect most in west Africa and SEA
A Portuguese La Plata?
unlikely, as outside Brazilian expansion south, the treaty of Tordesillas, which both Portugal and Spain observed, meant that Lisbon waived rights to the Americas
A Lusophone Australia/New Zealand?
Australia isn't really worth the effort at this point; hell to my knowledge i don't think Britain cared about it until they needed a new prison ground
Maybe a Portuguese-speaking South Africa?
more likely than the others, especially with Angola and Mozambique, though at the same time it would largely exist to secure the latter since its native population wasn't great enough for slave trade and to my knowledge lacked resistance to European diseases t the time (though not as badly as native Americans)
And another question, could you elaborate on what you said about the Iberian Union sucking resources out of Portugal? My knowledge about this subject is very bad, but if you don't want to, you don't need to tell me
basically, Philippe II and III of Spain were at war with England and the Netherlands, already very expensive naval matters that only would've benefitted the Spanish part of the union, while Philippe IV got involved in the 30 Years War, which was a massive waste of money for little material gain. The 30 Years War was largely an ideological and dynastic affair for the Spanish, in that their king was known as "The Catholic Monarch," and as a major part of the counter-reformation and inquisition system of Europe, they could gain a lot of legitimacy from undermining Protestantism and also France- that they were also aiding the Hapsburg cousins certainly helped tip the scales.

The problem was, none ofthis benefitted Portugal, since the isolated, Atlantic kingdom hadn't been as tied into the Euorpean system until Philippe II took it over. It was allied to england, but only really against Spain. otherwise, they tried their own "splendid isolation" whenever they could.
 
honestly not something I can say for certain, though I suspect most in west Africa and SEA

unlikely, as outside Brazilian expansion south, the treaty of Tordesillas, which both Portugal and Spain observed, meant that Lisbon waived rights to the Americas

Australia isn't really worth the effort at this point; hell to my knowledge i don't think Britain cared about it until they needed a new prison ground

more likely than the others, especially with Angola and Mozambique, though at the same time it would largely exist to secure the latter since its native population wasn't great enough for slave trade and to my knowledge lacked resistance to European diseases t the time (though not as badly as native Americans)

basically, Philippe II and III of Spain were at war with England and the Netherlands, already very expensive naval matters that only would've benefitted the Spanish part of the union, while Philippe IV got involved in the 30 Years War, which was a massive waste of money for little material gain. The 30 Years War was largely an ideological and dynastic affair for the Spanish, in that their king was known as "The Catholic Monarch," and as a major part of the counter-reformation and inquisition system of Europe, they could gain a lot of legitimacy from undermining Protestantism and also France- that they were also aiding the Hapsburg cousins certainly helped tip the scales.

The problem was, none ofthis benefitted Portugal, since the isolated, Atlantic kingdom hadn't been as tied into the Euorpean system until Philippe II took it over. It was allied to england, but only really against Spain. otherwise, they tried their own "splendid isolation" whenever they could.
Thank you for answering!
 
Depends broadly on the context, but at minimum, I'd expect somewhat firmer commitment to Morocco. OTL the Portuguese got pushed out largely due to lack of manpower (and to a lesser extent because there really wasn't any benefit justifying the cost.) With Castillan manpower, the Portuguese might take a somewhat firmer commitment to the expanded reconquest of the Moroccan Littoral.
 
I am not exactly an expert in the matter but a smaller Brazil and a big North African commitment (read Morocco, with possible expansion to Algeria and Tunisia) is extremely likely. If we had a different Iberian union (a Portuguese-led one with Miguel surviving or an ATL analogue or possibly also with Don Carlos living) a bigger conquest of North Africa is guaranteed
 
I am not exactly an expert in the matter but a smaller Brazil and a big North African commitment (read Morocco, with possible expansion to Algeria and Tunisia) is extremely likely. If we had a different Iberian union (a Portuguese-led one with Miguel surviving or an ATL analogue or possibly also with Don Carlos living) a bigger conquest of North Africa is guaranteed
If Don Carlos lived then he would be king of Portugal after Henry as he had stronger claim than his father but this is not necessarily a good thing as he was certifiably bat-shit insane so he could potentially not be interested in Africa at all
 
If Don Carlos lived then he would be king of Portugal after Henry as he had stronger claim than his father but this is not necessarily a good thing as he was certifiably bat-shit insane so he could potentially not be interested in Africa at all
Sebastian died in 1578 while don Carlos’ OTL death was in 1568, meaning who either in that 10 years or immediately after it Carlos will most likely marry and have children. Philip II of Spain died only in 1598 meaning who Carlos‘ heirs (who will rule on a Spain who included all the peninsula) would likely feel more Portuguese than Castilian or Aragonese…
 
Sebastian died in 1578 while don Carlos’ OTL death was in 1568, meaning who either in that 10 years or immediately after it Carlos will most likely marry and have children. Philip II of Spain died only in 1598 meaning who Carlos‘ heirs (who will rule on a Spain who included all the peninsula) would likely feel more Portuguese than Castilian or Aragonese…
Who exactly would marry Carlos given his insanity and imprisonment by his father? His fiancee IOTL became his stepmother and there is no mention in any source of any other options
But his heirs will certainly be raised in Portugal if they are to rule Portugal
 
Who exactly would marry Carlos given his insanity and imprisonment by his father? His fiancee IOTL became his stepmother and there is no mention in any source of any other options
But his heirs will certainly be raised in Portugal if they are to rule Portugal
He would marry Anna of Austria as was planned. She became Philip‘s fourth wife only after both Carlos and Elisabeth died (and keep in mind who the POD for such scenario do not need to be at Carlos‘ OTL death but can be earlier meaning who Carlos can also end marrying Elisabeth, have children by her and dying before Sebastian, leaving his eldest son/daughter as successor of Sebastian).
Carlos heirs would rule on all the peninsula so they will be raised in Portugal only between the deaths of Sebastian and Philip II. After Philip’s death everything can happen about the principal royal seat
 
He would marry Anna of Austria as was planned. She became Philip‘s fourth wife only after both Carlos and Elisabeth died (and keep in mind who the POD for such scenario do not need to be at Carlos‘ OTL death but can be earlier meaning who Carlos can also end marrying Elisabeth, have children by her and dying before Sebastian, leaving his eldest son/daughter as successor of Sebastian).
Carlos heirs would rule on all the peninsula so they will be raised in Portugal only between the deaths of Sebastian and Philip II. After Philip’s death everything can happen about the principal royal seat
This would be very fascinating POD (and filled with incest, but that's IOTL too, so eh)
As we do not know the possible personality of Carlos' heirs so they can be anyone we want
 
When it comes to the Iberian Union, there's much discussion about how it impacted both the countries of Portugal and Spain. However, what's often overlooked is how the Iberian Union impacted the colonial empire of Portugal. Specifically, was the Iberian Union a net good or was it negative when it comes to the expansion of the Portuguese Empire? If you have a TL without it (Sebastian doesn't die in Morocco and has a heir), would the Portuguese Empire end up smaller (Would Brazil have been allowed to expand so much without the Union?) or would it be bigger, with even more colonies throughout the Americas, Africa, Asia and possibly Oceania?
As others have said, it was almost certainly a net negative.

The main issue was pulling Portugal into wars without appropriately investing in the Portuguese empire to protect it from the consequences of the war.

The Monarch saw the Portuguese empire as an extension of the Spanish empire, which while true on paper, ignored that it was structured in a fundamentally different way. The Spanish ran a settler empire, which could rely on a significant local population in most cases to avoid being taken over out of hand, and being difficult to hold for others.

The Portuguese ran a trade empire, with their factories having very small civilian populations compared to their garrisons, insignificant in most cases. They handled the flow of trade, and unless something catastrophic occurred, that trade *would* occur, regardless of whether the Portuguese were there. So other trade oriented nations, like the Netherlands or England, could move in and replace the Portuguese, just by taking over the factories with a siege.

Due to the ease of replacing Portugal, this meant that the Portuguese suffered major financial losses, while their enemies quickly made great gains, and thus the balance of power was shifted, and it would be incredibly difficult for Portugal to reclaim their lost outposts. Perhaps if Spain had dedicated itself to the task it would have been possible, but it didn't, focusing on European wars and affairs that had little bearing on Portugal's pre union foreign policy.

Also add in that one of their largest new enemies, the English, had been one of their closest allies, they were completely unprepared to deal with them.

Overall, during the Iberian Union period, Spain was heavily focused on European affairs, dealing with 2 major issues at once, the 80 years war and the 30 years war. They then diverted Portuguese strength and money to these affairs, and away from their empire, while giving their empire major new foes. So the empire was lost, and once lost Portugal was greatly weakened, and thus had not the strength to reclaim it, nor to influence Spain towards retaking it.

Looking at the big picture, the Iberian Union did not necessarily have to be a negative for the Portuguese empire. They had a lack of bullion, Spain had a surplus, so some fancy accounting and a colonial focus could have greatly benefited both parties. See great timelines such as Torbald's for what such a functional Iberian Union could look like.

However, the way it occurred historically, during the period of greatest continental focus for Spain, meant Portugal was going to shafted, unless Spain could be extremely successful in bringing down the Dutch. I'm not well informed on the particulars of the 80 years war, so I can't tell you if that's possible, but it's one way that the Portuguese could be better off. Even then, it's possible that less focus on the 80 years war means greater Spanish intervention in the 30 years war, which while loosing fewer colonies, could still bankrupt both parties, also leading to a Portuguese decline.

Overall, as long as the Iberian Union occurred in circumstances where Spain was focused on Europe, and Portugal on colonies, then Portugal would suffer, as it would face the brunt of Spain's many many naval enemies.

Edit: I just want to make it clear that I'm specifically talking about Portugal's empire in Asia, not Brazil or most of their African holdings. I'm sure everyone here can tell, but I wanted to avoid any unnecessary nitpicking
 
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I am not exactly an expert in the matter but a smaller Brazil and a big North African commitment (read Morocco, with possible expansion to Algeria and Tunisia) is extremely likely. If we had a different Iberian union (a Portuguese-led one with Miguel surviving or an ATL analogue or possibly also with Don Carlos living) a bigger conquest of North Africa is guaranteed
Thanks! And a Portuguese Morocco sounds fascinating
 
As others have said, it was almost certainly a net negative.

The main issue was pulling Portugal into wars without appropriately investing in the Portuguese empire to protect it from the consequences of the war.

The Monarch saw the Portuguese empire as an extension of the Spanish empire, which while true on paper, ignored that it was structured in a fundamentally different way. The Spanish ran a settler empire, which could rely on a significant local population in most cases to avoid being taken over out of hand, and being difficult to hold for others.

The Portuguese ran a trade empire, with their factories having very small civilian populations compared to their garrisons, insignificant in most cases. They handled the flow of trade, and unless something catastrophic occurred, that trade *would* occur, regardless of whether the Portuguese were there. So other trade oriented nations, like the Netherlands or England, could move in and replace the Portuguese, just by taking over the factories with a siege.

Due to the ease of replacing Portugal, this meant that the Portuguese suffered major financial losses, while their enemies quickly made great gains, and thus the balance of power was shifted, and it would be incredibly difficult for Portugal to reclaim their lost outposts. Perhaps if Spain had dedicated itself to the task it would have been possible, but it didn't, focusing on European wars and affairs that had little bearing on Portugal's pre union foreign policy.

Also add in that one of their largest new enemies, the English, had been one of their closest allies, they were completely unprepared to deal with them.

Overall, during the Iberian Union period, Spain was heavily focused on European affairs, dealing with 2 major issues at once, the 80 years war and the 30 years war. They then diverted Portuguese strength and money to these affairs, and away from their empire, while giving their empire major new foes. So the empire was lost, and once lost Portugal was greatly weakened, and thus had not the strength to reclaim it, nor to influence Spain towards retaking it.

Looking at the big picture, the Iberian Union did not necessarily have to be a negative for the Portuguese empire. They had a lack of bullion, Spain had a surplus, so some fancy accounting and a colonial focus could have greatly benefited both parties. See great timelines such as Torbald's for what such a functional Iberian Union could look like.

However, the way it occurred historically, during the period of greatest continental focus for Spain, meant Portugal was going to shafted, unless Spain could be extremely successful in bringing down the Dutch. I'm not well informed on the particulars of the 80 years war, so I can't tell you if that's possible, but it's one way that the Portuguese could be better off. Even then, it's possible that less focus on the 80 years war means greater Spanish intervention in the 30 years war, which while loosing fewer colonies, could still bankrupt both parties, also leading to a Portuguese decline.

Overall, as long as the Iberian Union occurred in circumstances where Spain was focused on Europe, and Portugal on colonies, then Portugal would suffer, as it would face the brunt of Spain's many many naval enemies.

Edit: I just want to make it clear that I'm specifically talking about Portugal's empire in Asia, not Brazil or most of their African holdings. I'm sure everyone here can tell, but I wanted to avoid any unnecessary nitpicking
Great analysis!
 
I think AltoRegnant and A_simple_pilgrim gave a very good report on the Empire and I don't have much to say in that regard.

I will just say that during Philip II's reign (Philip I of Portugal) there were some important reforms in the administration of Portugal namely with all the councils he created like Overseas, Finances, etc. He also reformed the penal and administration code by publishing the Ordenações Filipinas or Philippine Ordinances. So his reign with the exception of his horrible foreign policy was actually quite good for the country and he did keep all his promises. His son and grandson, however, had to suffer from that horrible foreign policy and so they needed to increase their hold on all their realms to create a more effective tax system that could help them sustain that same foreign policy and so they started disrespecting Philip II's promises.
 
I think AltoRegnant and A_simple_pilgrim gave a very good report on the Empire and I don't have much to say in that regard.

I will just say that during Philip II's reign (Philip I of Portugal) there were some important reforms in the administration of Portugal namely with all the councils he created like Overseas, Finances, etc. He also reformed the penal and administration code by publishing the Ordenações Filipinas or Philippine Ordinances. So his reign with the exception of his horrible foreign policy was actually quite good for the country and he did keep all his promises. His son and grandson, however, had to suffer from that horrible foreign policy and so they needed to increase their hold on all their realms to create a more effective tax system that could help them sustain that same foreign policy and so they started disrespecting Philip II's promises.
I didn't know that about Philip II
 
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