The Iraq War seems to me to have profoundly affected the British political landscape, mainly to the effect of boosting the Liberal Democrats while weakening the Labour Party, and Tony Blair himself. How would recent British political history have played out, had Blair decided against following Bush into Iraq, or a different American president not declaring war on Iraq in the first place? Would the Labour Party have managed a larger share of the vote and majority in the next election after 2001? Would that have meant that Blair could stay on after 2007, to surpass Margaret Thatcher as the longest serving British Prime Minister of the last 50 years? Would Tony Blair have reneged on his deal with Brown, or simply postponed the date of his departure?
What would the lack of the Iraq War meanfor the Labour Party in general? Would it mean that the Third Way is less discredited, and thus more powerful within the party? Could it have meant an even longer spell in government for Labour, managing to hang on, perhaps as a minority govern,ent or in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, after 2010? What would the priorities of Labour Governments with considerably more political and economic capital be, had they decided not to go into Iraq?