AHQ: China pulls a Meiji, what happens to Europe, the West, and the World?

Ok, so, suppose that sometime in the 19th Century, perhaps as a result of some alternate Taiping Rebellion being successful, or because of some change in monarchs or something, through different leadership, China manages to drag itself to modernity, something akin to what Japan did. Think crash modernization and industrialization, introduction of a modern political system, and generally emulating Europe. In any case, a China that is rapidly industrializing and developing, not after Europe and the US, but in the mid-late 19th Century.

Such a China would exponentially grow in power and economic size, right? What would be the effects on Europe and the Americas? Would the world as a whole be richer? Would Europe try and integrate, band up against the Eastern challenger? Would it be easy for China to gain a colonial empire in Asia, like Japan did? Where would it set its sights on? How would Europeans react? How would European governments react? Would the colonial system have been viable in such a scenario? Would there have been European, or American governments willing to ally with the rising star or would racism have been an issue? What impact would an earlier Chinese ascendancy have on the world?
 
There is the assumption that anyone could just go up and pull a Meiji. There were special factors, circumstances, and country size that allowed Japan to pull it off. Its not like China could up and copy it.
 
Economically, Europe is very much screwed if China successfully industrializes in the 19th century as it is now faces harsh competition selling western goods to China and East Asia in general, and facing industrially manufactured weaponry will not be able to bully the Chinese as they did IOTL.

I don't think industrialization necessarily changes China's outlook and makes it a colonizing power or interested in projecting force beyond it's immediate neighbors though. So, global conflict with the European powers is avoided, and therefore the Europeans do not band together since there is no threat to band against. They probably will agree to work together to keep China's focus in China, and perhaps some, like Britain, will try to benefit off the Chinese industrial revolution by getting their banks access to Chinese capitalists to give loans. They may also wage an "advertising war" to get the new Chinese Bourgois class interested in European consumer goods; for example, trying to sell French wine or German beer as a drink of the new, modern sophisticate.
 
There is the assumption that anyone could just go up and pull a Meiji. There were special factors, circumstances, and country size that allowed Japan to pull it off. Its not like China could up and copy it.
Well, I only meant modernization. I just thought that "pulling a Meiji" was the standard terminology. Are you telling me that no matter what, Qing China couldn't do anything to modernize itself at some point in the mid-late 19th Century? I realize it's rather a tall order and that it would have been extremely difficult, but I wouldn't say that it would be downright impossible.
 
Well, I only meant modernization. I just thought that "pulling a Meiji" was the standard terminology. Are you telling me that no matter what, Qing China couldn't do anything to modernize itself at some point in the mid-late 19th Century? I realize it's rather a tall order and that it would have been extremely difficult, but I wouldn't say that it would be downright impossible.

The unequal treaties basically allowed foreigners to destroy Chinese local industry. In order for China to pull a Meiji, China must prioritize local development over selfish western and Japanese interests.
 
Economically, Europe is very much screwed if China successfully industrializes in the 19th century as it is now faces harsh competition selling western goods to China and East Asia in general, and facing industrially manufactured weaponry will not be able to bully the Chinese as they did IOTL.

I don't think industrialization necessarily changes China's outlook and makes it a colonizing power or interested in projecting force beyond it's immediate neighbors though. So, global conflict with the European powers is avoided, and therefore the Europeans do not band together since there is no threat to band against. They probably will agree to work together to keep China's focus in China, and perhaps some, like Britain, will try to benefit off the Chinese industrial revolution by getting their banks access to Chinese capitalists to give loans. They may also wage an "advertising war" to get the new Chinese Bourgois class interested in European consumer goods; for example, trying to sell French wine or German beer as a drink of the new, modern sophisticate.
Wouldn't chinese capitalism seek for captive markets and places to expand? More generally, wouldn't a more "outward looking" mindset be necessary for them to manage to pull an earlier rise?
 
The unequal treaties basically allowed foreigners to destroy Chinese local industry. In order for China to pull a Meiji, China must prioritize local development over selfish western and Japanese interests.
I don't think there is any non-selfish interest, at least on this scale and when talking about states, but that's another story. I'm not disputing that more advanced nations took advantage of a weak china, I recognize that. Could China pull through? Could China guard itself against that? Coul the attention of Europe and Japan be diverted elsewhere? Could China manage to salvage what was left of its industry and successfully modernize it? Could it innovate and overtake the pace of European development?
 
I don't think there is any non-selfish interest, at least on this scale and when talking about states, but that's another story. I'm not disputing that more advanced nations took advantage of a weak china, I recognize that. Could China pull through? Could China guard itself against that? Coul the attention of Europe and Japan be diverted elsewhere? Could China manage to salvage what was left of its industry and successfully modernize it? Could it innovate and overtake the pace of European development?

It would require copying, tech transfers, and IP theft. Even 19th century US stole a lot of stuff from Europe (esp Britain) and copied a lot of European products. There is a reason why Britain refused to sell technology like the steam engine to the US.....history shows that without a degree of infant industry protection and screwing over your trade partners, you cannot fully industrialize and develop your domestic technology.
 
It would require copying, tech transfers, and IP theft. Even 19th century US stole a lot of stuff from Europe (esp Britain) and copied a lot of European products. There is a reason why Britain refused to sell technology like the steam engine to the US.....history shows that without a degree of infant industry protection and screwing over your trade partners, you cannot fully industrialize and develop your domestic technology.
Well, could it perhaps have been helped by a great power sponsor? Maybe a European country to help it, as a counterbalance to the designs of other colonial powers and to stymie enemies? Maybe a Germany wishing to weaken Russia could exchange technology and help China modernize and industrialize? Or was there’s no chance of that?
 
Wouldn't chinese capitalism seek for captive markets and places to expand? More generally, wouldn't a more "outward looking" mindset be necessary for them to manage to pull an earlier rise?

I think at least initially, the vastly huge population and resources of China would provide enough of a market to kickstart industrialization. China by itself is about the size of multiple European nations and as hegemon of the far east has de facto domination over Japan, Korea, Tibet, Indochina, and a merchant diaspora community in the Philippines and Indonesia as well. I don't think China needs to expand, beyond maybe a few forts to protect their merchants in Indonesia and the Philippines (that'll put the fear of Heaven in the Spanish!) Now mind that's not to say that China won't expand, but I think such expansion may end up being a white elephant project of national pride rather than something really in the economic interest of the Chinese metropole.
 
China could, was, and did modernize, it didn't need a Meiji, despite common western belief when they actually put effort into keeping up, they did. It took all of Europe's great powers and ascending Japan to put an end to such efforts so that they weren't pushed out of China.
 
the closest china would get to a colonial empire wold be securing control of Korea, formosa, and indochina imho. it would be interesting to see wether the sino-japanese war kicked off and who would win.
 
the closest china would get to a colonial empire wold be securing control of Korea, formosa, and indochina imho. it would be interesting to see wether the sino-japanese war kicked off and who would win.

This predisposes an interest in owning a colonial empire. Taiwan was a province of the Empire of China, e.g. they owned it; Korea was a vassal-state until the terms of a treaty changed the suzerain of Korea from China to Japan.

@Xianfeng Emperor should probably offer their two cents on this (as I usually screech for them when discussing China).
 
Well, could it perhaps have been helped by a great power sponsor? Maybe a European country to help it, as a counterbalance to the designs of other colonial powers and to stymie enemies? Maybe a Germany wishing to weaken Russia could exchange technology and help China modernize and industrialize? Or was there’s no chance of that?

Long shot, but I could see the USA doing so under more benevolent leadership and also just to screw with Europe. Maybe back when Sun Yat-Sen was rising.
 
the closest china would get to a colonial empire wold be securing control of Korea, formosa, and indochina imho. it would be interesting to see wether the sino-japanese war kicked off and who would win.

China had a colonial empire. Why do you think they are so keen to get back into places like Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet? Much like the Russians the Chinese pushed into the interior of Asia to get their empire. For most of history the little guys on horses pushed back, but once the Chinese got decent guns (say 1700) it was all over.

There is a very good reason the Chinese never really went to sea. They didn't need to. There were plenty of lesser nations to conquer to the west. The only limit was how far control could be maintained by horse.
 
Well, could it perhaps have been helped by a great power sponsor? Maybe a European country to help it, as a counterbalance to the designs of other colonial powers and to stymie enemies? Maybe a Germany wishing to weaken Russia could exchange technology and help China modernize and industrialize? Or was there’s no chance of that?
If Russia were to become Germany's greatest threat and rival, they could be desperate enough to build up China as a distraction for Russia, so that way, in the event that Germany and Russia go to war, China would be able to open a second front on Russia. At least, this was a scenario I built in my head, although that scenario involves a Pod that is much earlier than what's given here. But, yeah, I feel like if China were to have a sponsor for industrialization it would have to be America and/or Germany. I feel like America would be ideologically interested in seeing China become a large Republic with lots of,but still relatively small, Christian influence, as the US had lots of missionaries in China who seemed to be interested in it becoming a prosperous Christian nation like their own, so they and Chinese Americans, but mostly them due to the racial power dynamics, could form the foundation of a pro Chinese lobby in America, that seeks to see it become like a version of America in Asia. I feel like that would be a pretty interesting timeline.
 
Top