What would be the impact of Gennady Zyuganov winning the Russian Presidential election in 1996? I want all possible scenarios!
boo really? I dont know much about russiaLikely exactly no effect on Russia. The decay of institutions of former Soviet Union was already past acute phase by 1996, so besides some changed rhetoric no difference from OTL. The Russia in 1996 was controlled by loose conglomerates of criminal syndicates, and these will block any reform attempts. It would take another 10 years before syndicates merge and mature to the point allowing some coherent politics will be made.
More or less what I was thinkingIt could've had far reaching political consequences across the globe in wealthy and impoverished countries. It would've signaled that a major population that had been living in a socialistic system that had then suddenly switched to a quasi-wild west capitalistic system had desired to return to socialism. This could've put a major dent in the neo-liberal "end of history" discourse popular at the time (though already strained by the gulf war, Somalia, Rwanda/ DRC, and the collapse of Yugoslavia). There might've been cascading effects in elections around the world. Not that the world would suddenly go red, but that the strength of socialist parties in parliaments around the world may have rebounded somewhat in relation to their performances IOTL. A neo-red scare might've occurred in the US and Western Europe, though it might've died down relatively quickly once it became clear that the once again communist ruled Russia would be in a far weaker position geopolitically than its predecessor. There would likely have been many other effects as well
Well the Asian a Financial Crisis is still going to happen in 1997, that led to a decrease in demand for oil and metal the export of which provided a large amount of Russia's foreign exchange so they're still going to take a beating economically. How the communists react to this is the question - I've got no idea how doctrinaire Zyuganov was. If they start putting up capital controls and renouncing debts then it might help in the short-term but locks them out of the international money markets long-term and largely discourages financial aid from organisations like the IMF or World Bank, which Russia had to do a $22.6 billion deal with in 2008.What would be the impact of Gennady Zyuganov winning the Russian Presidential election in 1996?
I was in Russia what time and can testify what by 1995 the power vacuum left by Soviet Union collapse was already filled by a wide array of criminal syndicates. Some were descendants of "Thief in law" organizations of Soviet Union, but majority were the gangs formed de novo, in 1992 - 1994, resulting in nearly chaotic situation. Well, the situation has not much in common with the popular western image "nation throws off the yoke of communism". It was rather a spontaneous decay without any underlying idea. Individuals coped with dire situation as best as they can, and sum of individual actions turned out to be destructive to the country as whole. Too much self-interest. Too weak punishment for anti-social behavior.boo really? I dont know much about russia
The international loans of the period had likely no positive effect on Russia, because nearly all of the money was embezzled. The psychological climate may be until 2002 was absolutely unfavourable for target spending.Well the Asian a Financial Crisis is still going to happen in 1997, that led to a decrease in demand for oil and metal the export of which provided a large amount of Russia's foreign exchange so they're still going to take a beating economically. How the communists react to this is the question - I've got no idea how doctrinaire Zyuganov was. If they start putting up capital controls and renouncing debts then it might help in the short-term but locks them out of the international money markets long-term and largely discourages financial aid from organisations like the IMF or World Bank, which Russia had to do a $22.6 billion deal with in 2008.
sad, but interesting! Are there any alternatives to Gennady?He could try to put atrophied structures back together again but there are some red lines he is not going to be able to cross in 1996. No more suppression or pressuring of the Church, no more restrictions on emigration, political liberalization will have to continue even if it is only in the form of rent seeking behavior, and no radical changes to the educational system.
The post Soviet, Russian Communist Party has ALWAYS found its support from pensioners, and he will basically be expected to run a gerontocracy. As long as his people get their benefits, they will support him. Nobody really believed in doctrinaire Marxism by this point in time, and arguably had not for quite a while.
This dynamic is actually pretty interesting when you look at who votes for Die Linke in Germany. You have a divide between idealistic youthful far left types, and older pensioners, with a healthy mix of former Stasi collaborators thrown in at all levels.
The Russian Communist Party would have a mandate to pull up the drawbridges of change and make sure that the state is run for the benefit of pensioners. Fundamentally, it is a trade unionist and Russian Nationalist organization that has a lot in common with the Chinese Communist Party in that it has adopted a less hardline stance on private enterprise, but is fiercely economically nationalist.
Don't expect workers collectives and Trotskyist Communes and class war to start up under a Zyuganov victory.
I dont know? Would there be?For a POD, could we have the Asian financial crisis occur sooner so Russia's economy takes a hit before the election? Let's say Yeltsin's popularity collapses to the point he can't fake a win and Zyuganov wins the election.
Is there a coup attempt against Zyuganov?
Doubtful. The Russian Army in the 90s was a pitifully weak institution and the only way they'd be willing to launch a coup is if Zyuganov does something like capitulating on Chechnya, which he would not do.I dont know? Would there be?
He could try to put atrophied structures back together again but there are some red lines he is not going to be able to cross in 1996. No more suppression or pressuring of the Church, no more restrictions on emigration, political liberalization will have to continue even if it is only in the form of rent seeking behavior, and no radical changes to the educational system.
The post Soviet, Russian Communist Party has ALWAYS found its support from pensioners, and he will basically be expected to run a gerontocracy. As long as his people get their benefits, they will support him. Nobody really believed in doctrinaire Marxism by this point in time, and arguably had not for quite a while.
This dynamic is actually pretty interesting when you look at who votes for Die Linke in Germany. You have a divide between idealistic youthful far left types, and older pensioners, with a healthy mix of former Stasi collaborators thrown in at all levels.
The Russian Communist Party would have a mandate to pull up the drawbridges of change and make sure that the state is run for the benefit of pensioners. Fundamentally, it is a trade unionist and Russian Nationalist organization that has a lot in common with the Chinese Communist Party in that it has adopted a less hardline stance on private enterprise, but is fiercely economically nationalist.
Don't expect workers collectives and Trotskyist Communes and class war to start up under a Zyuganov victory.