AHCWI: Labour Wins 1975 NZ Election

IOTL, the 1975 NZ election was a landslide for Robert Muldoon and the National Party, and this ultimately led on to staglflation and then the Rogernomics reforms. What if Labour won, either under Kirk, Rowling or some other leader? What would be the effects? How long would Labour keep power, especially given this is the second time they've won more than one term in a row TTL? Would Muldoon still become PM, and the events under his governance still occur? What woukd happen to the economy? What if?
 
I got curious enough to work out what NZ's government would have been like had the 1975 election been conducted under MMP. If it had, a Labour-led government in coalition with Social Credit and the Values party could have run the country. Assuming of course those parties were willing to talk.

Code:
Party            Vote%     FPP seats   MMP seats
National         47.6      55          41
Labour           39.6      32          32 
Social Credit     7.4       0           6
Values            5.2       0           5

The rounding is a bit iffy, as every party's share is close to half a seat.

Code:
>>> from __future__ import division
>>> def calc_share(total_seats, total_percentage, party_vote_percent):
...     return seats * (share / total)
...
>>> # 99.8 as total percentage due to 0.2% going to other parties
>>> calc_share(87,99.8,47.6) # National
41.494989979959925
>>> calc_share(87,99.8,39.6) # Labour
34.521042084168336
>>> calc_share(87,99.8,7.4) # Social credit
6.4509018036072145
>>> calc_share(87,99.8,5.2) # Values
4.533066132264529
 
If Muldoon died suddenly in 1970-72, and Kirk lived another 5 years. I can see Labour clinging onto power in '75, but '78 would see National back.
 
Any other ideas? Perhaps no Citizens for Rowling or a snap election in 1974? if Muldoon loses, would he stay on as National leader or be deposed? I think the superannuation plan would stay and NZ would be better of for it, no Think Big and if there is economic liberalisation, it would be much more mild. All this presumes Muldoon isn't just elected in the next election anyway.
 
Any other ideas? Perhaps no Citizens for Rowling or a snap election in 1974? if Muldoon loses, would he stay on as National leader or be deposed? I think the superannuation plan would stay and NZ would be better of for it, no Think Big and if there is economic liberalisation, it would be much more mild. All this presumes Muldoon isn't just elected in the next election anyway.

A snap election in 1974 would be interesting. Perhaps Rowling could justify it by saying to the public "as a new leader, I should seek a fresh mandate from the people of New Zealand."

Perhaps Labour could have setup their Superannuation policy more like OTL's Kiwisaver, and opened it up for private fund managers?

That way you couldn't accuse the Government of trying to own everything by stealth ala the 'Dancing Cossacks' advert.
 
What about Norman Kirk living? That would avoid many of Labour's problems; no Citizens for Rowling, more popular leadership and would lead to a much more effective campaign. Perhaps Kirk beats Muldoon with a decreased majority, National goes into infighting and replaces Muldoon with Bolger or Gair, Labour wins again in 1978 but loses in 1981 to Gair. The economy is better and while there are some economic reforms under the next governments, say under Gair or Bolger or under Lange. From there major butterflies such as NZ keeps FPP, no nuclear free NZ, no Springbok Tour, no other constitutional reforms etc
 
Were private fund managers a thing then?

Well, perhaps just registered banks to begin with.


Sure the Post Office Savings Bank & Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) were Government owned at the time, but if National Bank, Westpac & ANZ offer to manage retirement savings under this scheme, specialist fund managers may pop up afterwards.
 
Funny thing is that no-one was actually expecting Muldoon to win 1975. Labour's majority in 1972 was considered simply too large (note that the reverse happened in 1978 - no-one was expecting Labour to get close).

Possible options:

(1) No Muldoon in 1975 (Muldoon's campaign was perhaps the most effective in New Zealand history). Perhaps have Marshall lose less badly in 1972, and keep enough support in caucus to get another go in 1975.

(2) Kirk lives. Kirk was far more charismatic than Rowling, and would avoid the "weak little intellectual" attacks launched on his successor. Kirk's sudden illness wasn't expected either, to the point where there remain conspiracy theories about CIA involvement.

(3) Kirk doesn't cancel the 1973 Springbok Tour. Kirk in 1972 had promised not to interfere in the tour - only to change his mind a year later. Muldoon played on this endlessly in 1975. Flipside is that you get the nastiness of apartheid South Africa turning up, with international repercussions (African boycott of the 1974 Commonwealth Games) and problems on the streets. I think short of the NZRFU calling off the Tour on its own accord, this is a bit of a no-win situation for Labour. Perhaps Kirk doesn't make his 1972 promise, wins anyway, and invokes the fact that the Nats cancelled 1967?

(4) Limit the external economic shocks. Lessen the oil crisis, keep Britain out of the EEC, and you really help Labour (Muldoon was considered an economic wizard in 1975, so was able to play on the sense of crisis).

(5) Rowling's Government actually promotes the Compulsory Savings Scheme effectively, and irons out the difficulties in advance. Nip the Dancing Cossacks in the bud.
 
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