AHC WW1 Austria-Hungary against Germany

As the title says, have WW1 happen with Austria-Hungary and Germany on opposing sides, and have AH side win.
Any POD allowed, any alliances pattern is allowed.
Bonus point if you do not alter previous history in a radical way.
 
As the title says, have WW1 happen with Austria-Hungary and Germany on opposing sides, and have AH side win.
Any POD allowed, any alliances pattern is allowed.
Bonus point if you do not alter previous history in a radical way.

Alliances:

Austria-Hungary, France, United Kingdom and Russia

Germany, Italy...

Now the problem is, AH had a really weak millitary in 1914. The weak and underarmed Russians had not a really big difficulty to fight them. AH needs to have a better military. Otherwise the German and Italian Army will move the front to Prague, Vienna and Zagreb in the first year.
 
How would you put A-H and Russia into the same group?

Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary worked together in the Three Emperors League, and Alexander III was motivated to keep the peace if possible. Alexander also died young; he could have lived well into the OTL First World War.

If Alexander could have reached an agreement over the Eastern Question, he would have stayed friendly with Vienna even as Wilhelm II alienated everyone. World War One would likely start as Germany convinces Britain that Russia needed to be dealt with before Alexander can finish Russia's French upgrades and binds France and Austria into a formal alliance.

Germany here would need to do all it could to keep France out of the war, but inevitably it would become Britain, Germany, and Italy verses Russia, Austria-Hungary, and France. Austria does win here, getting territory in Italy, as Britain is going to do everything it can to keep TTL Triple Entente from crippling Germany and achieving hegemony.
 
Alliances:

Austria-Hungary, France, United Kingdom and Russia

Germany, Italy...

Now the problem is, AH had a really weak millitary in 1914. The weak and underarmed Russians had not a really big difficulty to fight them. AH needs to have a better military. Otherwise the German and Italian Army will move the front to Prague, Vienna and Zagreb in the first year.
AH had not a crappy military, they had a crappy leadership...get rid of Conrad von Hotzendorf and things may get very better
 
IOTL they were, so first step to make this scenario possible should be preventing vassalization of AH by Germany before Russian Revolution.

The first step to that was, ironically, Austria trying to sound out the Entente about a separate peace in 1917, after Karl's ascension to the throne. So, instead of the Entente (really, France) dropping a hint to the Germans that their allies are trying to leave them hanging, have the Entente accept - under the reasoning that letting Austria get away might help the war.

Germany's not likely to take that kind of stab-in-the-back well. While I doubt they'd have the resources (or Austrians the will) to fight, it is a possibility. If that happens - well, you could see Austria enter into the ranks of victorious powers if Germany gets beaten, therefore technically meeting the requirements set out in the OP.

On a more serious note - the League of Three Emperors and Germany renewing the Reinsurance treaty (and Russia, as well - neither power was all that interested in continuing the alliance). The Austro-Russian breakdown in relations would move Austria to the French camp. So, you'd haver the German-Russian alliance (with Italy a benevolent neutral) opposed by France, Austria and UK - with Austria benefiting from OTLs French investments that went to Russia, it might not be as foregone a conclusion as it might seem at first glance. Provided Austrian leadership is better than OTL - Conrad von Hötzendorf's career was very much in question IOTL, but the war put any thought of replacing him on hold, so it's not as out there as it might seem. He was appointed as a reformer, largely at the behest of Franz Ferdinand, but in a case where modernization begins earlier, someone else might take the place.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
@Keb
Your 1st proposal :
That would leave A-H to haver to swallow a damn awful lot of toads.
At first : there is the question of the italian "demands" on A-H, that are all already "promised" by the Entente (France and Britain) by treaty.
Second : As the russians aren't beaten yet, the question of what happens to Galicia, west (mostly polish) as well as east (mostly ukraine). Most likely Russian will claim them.
Third : the Serbs will ofc demand more than "just" restoration of their state.
Forth : Romania will also not only be "restored"
Fifth : Karl would have to "sell" all those losses somehow the magyars ...​
TBH, I don't see, how the Entente as well as Karl aka A-H will manage to get a for all parts acceptable aggreement, esp. as in 1917 Ruissia was visibly on its last leg with the germans and austrians advancing.

Your 2nd proposal _
That would leave Germany and Russia allied ...
by-by A-H as well as France ... well, the rest of continental Europe. Despite whatever France as well as GB might be able to pour into A-H for modernization and preparing for war, it will be dwarfed by what Russia might achieve with german help.​
 
@Keb
That would leave Germany and Russia allied ...
by-by A-H as well as France ... well, the rest of continental Europe. Despite whatever France as well as GB might be able to pour into A-H for modernization and preparing for war, it will be dwarfed by what Russia might achieve with german help.

The 1st one, I'll grant you, but the 2nd - German finances were largely tied up in investing in Germany proper. For Russia, there's no real replacement for French investment, which allowed it to get as far forward as it did IOTL. So, either way, you get a Russia that's significantly worse-off than OTL by the start of this alt-Great War or you try to make up for it through German financing. That might make up for some of the shortfalls in Russia, but then you get a Russia that's somewhat weaker than it's already-abysmal condition IOTL and a Germany that's weaker than it was historically as more of its funding is tied up in Russian industries.

So, TTL, Austria supplants Russia as the fastest-growing economy in Europe (it was second IOTL, registering a larger absolute growth, but percentage-wise worse than Russia) by default ... let alone with French investment. It also needs to defend against German and Russian advances. IOTL, the defensive plans against Russia involved positioning troops some 100 kilometers from the Russian border, in relatively rugged terrain. Obviously, there were no plans for war against Germany for obvious reasons, but let's assume that they fill out the same broad ideas that all plans had - a defensive one and an offensive one. So, in the event of a war against Germany and Russia at the same time, you can add the Austrians attempting to defend against Germany in the Bohemian and Austrian mountainous terrain and I don't think the conflict would be as quick or as easy as everyone seems to think - especially if Austria doesn't cripple it's own army early in the war as it did in Galizia. People might malign the Italian army's performance, but it is very telling of the kind of results you'd get trying to storm defences laid out in rugged terrain with WWI-era tactics and technology, especially early-WWI tactics.
 
I do not think that Austria switching side post-war is a viable solution...by 1916-17 Austria could maybe get away with a white peace, but surely it would not get involved in a new war against the Germans. Also while Austria switching side would create problems to the Germans, by 1917 they could have occupied the country in few weeks. While they would have been forced to leave it after the end of the war, by then Austria would be a wreck.
As a sidenote Karl would be viewed as a traitor and would be despised world-wide.
I think that a nice way to accomplish the task would be for Austria to be more revanchist after 1866 and to settle their differences with Russia, allowing them a free hand in the balkans.then you have a franco-austro-Russian alliance, or at least a franco-austrian one,which, if bolstered by UK...
By the way Austria winning a war against st Germany, creates new difficulties:if Austria grabs germs lands,they would be viewed as the breaker of German unity.if they try to unify Germany under their control,well,that would be impractical and would create a german-hungarian leviathan no one could tolerate.only chance is for the substitute claim Germany and throw away their danubian empire,which is what they should have done from the start.
 
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