AHC: World War II in a Central Powers victory scenario.

Well, certainly from various discussions and threads I've read on this site, it seems that a WWII with reversed roles is not possible, however, I would like to explore and discuss some alternatives. First, I proceed to give a context to have a base from which to start: first of all, the victory of the Central Powers would be the standard, there is no intervention of the United States, Brest-Livostk happens as in OTL and the Germans break the trenches allies in France. Germany would get her colonies back and gain some extras in exchange for returning to the status quo ante bellum in Western Europe (except for Luxembourg and some border adjustments in the Vosges) and you will have her gains recognized in Eastern Europe.

The Bolsheviks will continue to win the RCW, mainly due to the disorganization of the White forces as a leadership, finishing a little earlier. France, for its part, would manage to keep a large part of its territory (including Briey-Longwy) but the industrial devastation and human loss would have a profound impact on the French conscience, the Third Republic would remain, but much more unstable and dependent on international credit. , making its economy unstable to any crack abroad. The United Kingdom would see its possessions intact, but the illusion that the war was fought for nothing caused a wave of instability, causing the fall of multiple governments, added to the crises in Ireland, India and South Africa; being the British priority to guarantee its status as a power and keep the Empire stable. Germany for its part now has its long-awaited place in the sun, but as Uncle Ben said "with great power comes great responsibility." So Germany now found itself running a sizeable colonial empire and had new stooges in Eastern Europe, each one with its basic needs, this added to the state of the German economy, with large internal debts, a hungry population (at least until the supply stabilized) and a devalued currency; They cause Germany to resort to US credits (like France, the UK and others involved in the Great War) making its economy vulnerable and running the risk of exceeding its limits.

Bolshevik Russia, despite not having the Ukraine and the Caucasus, according to what I have researched, still has considerable resources to industrialize the country, although in a much slower way than OTL, in terms of its leadership, I see Stalin as the plausible option, although I have yet to read about the existing power struggles within the USSR. Austria-Hungary, for its part, managed to survive, but the political reforms have not yet eased the discrepancies and tensions that exist within the different ethnic groups of the Empire. Italy for its part, would not lose territory, but would be forced to pay large war reparations to the Central Powers, added to the economic crisis, the Kingdom of Italy would fall into political polarization. However, I do not see that it brings fascism (Unless not as in OTL) although it does revanchist movements that can end in a militaristic dictatorship. The Ottomans reached an agreement with the British, defeating the Arab revolt and taking advantage of the oil boom, I don't have much to say about OE, apart from the fact that little by little it would distance itself from Germany due to differences with respect to the Caucasus. Japan, for its part, would retain its gains from Germany, however, the consolidation of the Zhili Camarilla brought with it new risks to Japanese interests in the region (there was no Beijing Coup, so Zhili manages to win the Second Zhili-Fengtian war.

Now, and going to the point of this thread, with the Great Depression running its course and with some events in between, such as a breakdown of German hegemony, the reconstitution of France, the Soviet resurgence, tensions in Asia and the Balkans Could a regional conflict give way to new conflicts that end a kind of WWII? I explain to myself that I know the point is not understood, let's suppose that pro-Russian movements begin to emerge in Ukraine, Crimea and Belarus (Taking into account the demographics of the region and the tensions that may arise between the different ethnic groups, for example, in the Ukrainian SSR there were 22% Russians, although a minority could cause problems) that begin to cause instability in their Eastern puppets, added to complications in Austria Hungary and internal political polarization, makes the perception in different revanchist nations is that the German bloc is breaking up, so there could be a kind of Realpolitik between Italy, Russia and some Balkan nations, organized for a common purpose. Nations like France or the UK remain neutral (at least momentarily, if Germany is losing the war, they would take the opportunity to get their piece of the cake) so they could see a kind of economic boom due to selling consumer goods to both sides. However, I know this is at least implausible, but I'd like to see some alternatives.
 
Interesting thread though I'm sorry to say you've forgotten one of the most important and perhaps unstable players that could the role of ''Hitler in this timeline, Bulgaria.

Your looking at a nation who's paramilitary terrorist groups have been fighting for decades for now and and the state struggled to be more powerful than them and I imagine in this timeline will be a vital part in occupying their now land, a nation that fought a war against all of it's neighbors and lost then went round two again in world war 1 except except against the Ottomans, a nation that is openly Constantinople and more importantly during the first Balkan war had to threatened to stop and burnt it's bridges with Russia it's patron.

This nation I say would definitely fill the role of a gambler in the Balkan willing to smash the CP pact to the ground, likely being backed by Britain and France with their apprentice in Greece, Persia, and try to dismember the Ottomans and remove one of the Austrian and German sources of Oil and I imagine the USSR would seek to reclaim Caucasus.

Though for Ukraine situation if not the USSR being Germany's pet ''monster'' they raised that might destroy their teetering rule rule Ukraine could serve the same after all greater Ukraine stretches' well into the Austro Hungarian empire, bits of Romania, well into the Caucasus's to far as Siberia . I could see in a weird way Ukrainian elite basically want to recrate the Russian empire except with them in charge.

Other possibility is the USSR in a a strange and weird way could see as a way to remove the ''venom'' of revolution, basically exile the socialists to the USSR, both to keep their destabilizing project alive and a stick to use against their puppets, but also keep them weak better they fight and die fighting the proxies which will last than they try to revolt or bomb the fatherland.
 
Though for Ukraine situation if not the USSR being Germany's pet ''monster'' they raised that might destroy their teetering rule rule Ukraine could serve the same after all greater Ukraine stretches' well into the Austro Hungarian empire, bits of Romania, well into the Caucasus's to far as Siberia . I could see in a weird way Ukrainian elite basically want to recrate the Russian empire except with them in charge.
Nah, in a context with a resurgent Russian Empire, or worse, Stalinist USSR, Ukraine would stick to Germany cause they know that otherwise Russia would eat them up.
 
Interesting thread though I'm sorry to say you've forgotten one of the most important and perhaps unstable players that could the role of ''Hitler in this timeline, Bulgaria.

Your looking at a nation who's paramilitary terrorist groups have been fighting for decades for now and and the state struggled to be more powerful than them and I imagine in this timeline will be a vital part in occupying their now land, a nation that fought a war against all of it's neighbors and lost then went round two again in world war 1 except except against the Ottomans, a nation that is openly Constantinople and more importantly during the first Balkan war had to threatened to stop and burnt it's bridges with Russia it's patron.

This nation I say would definitely fill the role of a gambler in the Balkan willing to smash the CP pact to the ground, likely being backed by Britain and France with their apprentice in Greece, Persia, and try to dismember the Ottomans and remove one of the Austrian and German sources of Oil and I imagine the USSR would seek to reclaim Caucasus.

Though for Ukraine situation if not the USSR being Germany's pet ''monster'' they raised that might destroy their teetering rule rule Ukraine could serve the same after all greater Ukraine stretches' well into the Austro Hungarian empire, bits of Romania, well into the Caucasus's to far as Siberia . I could see in a weird way Ukrainian elite basically want to recrate the Russian empire except with them in charge.

Other possibility is the USSR in a a strange and weird way could see as a way to remove the ''venom'' of revolution, basically exile the socialists to the USSR, both to keep their destabilizing project alive and a stick to use against their puppets, but also keep them weak better they fight and die fighting the proxies which will last than they try to revolt or bomb the fatherland.
Thank you very much for the observations, the case of Bulgaria would be interesting, although it also depends on how the Balkans are, perhaps with a soft treatment from Germany towards Greece and Romania (With Germany and Austria-Hungary agreeing to return the north of Dobruja, which was a condominium of them) causing resentment in Bulgaria and seek a rapprochement with powers hostile to the CP. Something that I forgot to mention is that at least in the case that it develops, WWII would end in a stalemate, with France achieving a border readjustment that allows it to recover parts of the Vosges and protect its iron reserves, Germany conserving its colonial empire and some puppet states in Eastern Europe, the USSR getting Belarus, the Caucasus and parts of the Ukraine.
 
Nah, in a context with a resurgent Russian Empire, or worse, Stalinist USSR, Ukraine would stick to Germany cause they know that otherwise Russia would eat them up.
I mean more Ukrainian elite basically trying to the liberators of the USSR, that conveniently butchered and removed most of the old nobility leaving room a for new one to take charge of Russia.

After all they are the breadbasket of Europe, the spiritual heartland after the USSR is done trying to destroy the faith of the people and more importantly get resource rich regions of Russia to aid in the development of Ukraine proper.
 

Riain

Banned
The big issue with a post CP victory WW2 is the power imbalance. The revisionist powers in Europe won't be nearly strong enough to fight Greater German MittelEuropa at home and any fighting between them outside of Europe would likely escalate into fighting right into the heart of the war initiators. Even a close strategic union between Britain and France would be vulnerable to a combination of OTL's Blitzkrieg, uboat campaign and a Bismark raid the size of the HSF at Jutland.

This is what makes it different to OTL Pacific war, which was Japan grabbing territory mostly outside direct US control and the US needing 4 years of hard fighting to take the war to Japan itself.
 
It sounds like France and Belgium get off lightly in this scenario if Brest-Litovsk happens as OTL and German troops are deeper into French territory and/or near Paris at war's end. What happens to Belgium? Germany will *not* allow Brussels to retain economic independence if Berlin has *any* say in the matter. What of Poland and Bulgaria? And how about the specifics of changes for the Ottomans? If Germany becomes more distant to Istanbul does Berlin begin to warm up to Persia instead, and will the Ottomans tolerate that?
 
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The big issue with a post CP victory WW2 is the power imbalance. The revisionist powers in Europe won't be nearly strong enough to fight Greater German MittelEuropa at home and any fighting between them outside of Europe would likely escalate into fighting right into the heart of the war initiators. Even a close strategic union between Britain and France would be vulnerable to a combination of OTL's Blitzkrieg, uboat campaign and a Bismark raid the size of the HSF at Jutland.
Depend, a Germany that win the war will face so many problem internally and in keeping their empire will not have the same capacity and will to fight to OTL, honestly Germany will be a giant with the feet of clay
 
The big issue with a post CP victory WW2 is the power imbalance. The revisionist powers in Europe won't be nearly strong enough to fight Greater German MittelEuropa at home and any fighting between them outside of Europe would likely escalate into fighting right into the heart of the war initiators. Even a close strategic union between Britain and France would be vulnerable to a combination of OTL's Blitzkrieg, uboat campaign and a Bismark raid the size of the HSF at Jutland.

This is what makes it different to OTL Pacific war, which was Japan grabbing territory mostly outside direct US control and the US needing 4 years of hard fighting to take the war to Japan itself.
Yes, that is certainly the big issue. I was thinking about some previous PODs, like making France have a slightly larger population (instead of 40 million, about 55 million) or the Germans deciding to attack Russia first, however, the consequences I think alter the CP victory scenario what do I want. What I was thinking is that a) Most of the conflict would take place in Eastern Europe and the Balkans b) The British and French would take an opportunistic stance, as soon as they see that any adventure against Germany is proving to be bloody, they make peace with some frontiersmen , depending on how and when they entered the war, the population may like it or not and c) Germany could face its own internal problems, primarily political polarization and economic costs, if Germany exceeds its financial limits and the Reichstag puts pressure , I can see a reduction in military spending, which could give a head start to the revanchist nationals, although, victory depends above all on Russian capacity.

Certainly, the WWII I am looking for is not a war of mass destruction, but rather a conflict in which circumstances led to the involvement of different nations that, apart from the common goal of ending German hegemony, have no interest in saving the other.
 
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It sounds like France and Belgium get off lightly in this scenario if Brest-Litovsk happens as OTL and German troops are deeper into French territory and/or near Paris at war's end. What happens to Belgium? Germany will *not* allow Brussels to retain economic independence if Berlin has *any* say in the matter. What of Poland and Bulgaria? And how about the specifics of changes for the Ottomans? If Germany becomes more distant to Istanbul does Berlin begin to warm up to Persia instead, and will the Ottomans tolerate that?
Belgium maintains its independence in exchange for ceding the Belgian Congo. His policy, although it has been oriented to neutrality and the reconstruction of the country. Its relationship with France is volatile, mainly due to fear of German retaliation, however some minor business deals have been struck.

Bulgaria, for its part, is expansionist, mainly with respect to Greece, Romania and the Ottomans, it feels that the peace treaties benefited it little and seeks its own vital space (something like Italy in OTL) Poland, meanwhile, is a State that de jure it comes under the influence of the Hapsburgs, however, in practice it is under German control, attempts to create a Polish army have failed, and insurgencies are frequent. The Germans have not allowed the consolidation of a stable political system, preferring to maintain a Regency council that prevents the emergence of a Poland that threatens Germany.

I still have to determine what lands the Ottomans could lose, although there is also the option that the war in the Middle East will last longer than in the West, but in general, the Ottomans have sought to take advantage of the oil reserves in their territory for the modernization of their economy and army, however, the volatility of the world economy could have a great impact on foreign currency inflows in Constantinople, which could trigger a new wave of instability in the face of expansionist neighbors. Persia is under British influence, the Germans, despite everything, prefer to keep the Ottoman for commercial interests.
 
In a scenario where USSR does not control Ukraine and Caucasus the famine of 1922 will be worse and if US help isnt as fast or sizeable for some reason things will be bad. Peasant rebellions may be even worse.

A funny scenario could be that Mustafa Kemal’s intrigue succeeds: He convinces the Sultan in Late 1917 to assume army command and appoint him chief of staff. Mustafa Kemal then uses this authority to better organize the Palestine and Caucasus front and when Germans come over to help and the war is wom he is praised as the Hero of Gallipoli, Bitlis, Jerusalem and Baghdad…
 

Riain

Banned
Depend, a Germany that win the war will face so many problem internally and in keeping their empire will not have the same capacity and will to fight to OTL, honestly Germany will be a giant with the feet of clay

What problems?

Russia/Soviet Union held these territories before WW1, then most of them after losing WW1 then all of them again after WW2 until the end of the Cold War. Why would it be such a problem for Germany to do the same?
 
What problems?

Russia/Soviet Union held these territories before WW1, then most of them after losing WW1 then all of them again after WW2 until the end of the Cold War. Why would it be such a problem for Germany to do the same?
Because Germany is planning to create her little colonial empire in east europe making the various nations captive market and subject to the German economic necessity and honestly it's not really a thing that many nationalist or general citizens look upon for his future.
Not considering that after the greatest massacre know to man till that moment Germany itself will not be in a good shape economically and politically and adding the prop up of their puppet will not really make the nation any favor, christ this is the great war, nobody come out good from that winner or loser if one can be called this way after so much loss.
Basically Germany is overstreched and i don't want even talk about the epic mess that will be Austria-Hungary, sorry no being on the winning side and so achieve the title of whole owned subsidiary of the German Empire will not be considerd that great conquest. Not considering that without reparation well ITTL the government will need to find a way to pay the war expense.

Using WW2 URSS as comparisation is not a good example, the Red Army was a much different beast than the German imperial army in term of size and zealotry and frankly they have at least a sizeable numbers of local collaborators and some ideological legitimancy plus they had tons of problems in keeping that territory from fighting rebels movement to routine riots and the need to basically do mass expulsion of entire population.
 
What problems?

Russia/Soviet Union held these territories before WW1, then most of them after losing WW1 then all of them again after WW2 until the end of the Cold War. Why would it be such a problem for Germany to do the same?
Well, Germany would have to face the following problems once the Great Depression arrived: 1) Economic instability, most likely Germany would have to resort to US loans to reorganize its economy and maintain its new Colonial Empire and Eastern European Interests, if the Crack of 29 or some later variant happens, Germany will have to be much more meticulous with its spending and trade policies, which will have a direct impact on the economy of its vassals 2) Political instability, related to the previous point, political instability it could affect Germany (although not to the level of the OTL III Republic) with the SDP favoring a more pacifist line and demilitarization while you have the conservatives favoring a hard line, to be prepared for any aggression against their vassals.

It should be remembered that Germany in this case would be a democracy, not one like the UK or the US, but the press and the opposition would have a voice, so any incident in Eastern Europe could light a fuse in Berlin.
 
Well, Germany would have to face the following problems once the Great Depression arrived: 1) Economic instability, most likely Germany would have to resort to US loans to reorganize its economy and maintain its new Colonial Empire and Eastern European Interests, if the Crack of 29 or some later variant happens, Germany will have to be much more meticulous with its spending and trade policies, which will have a direct impact on the economy of its vassals 2) Political instability, related to the previous point, political instability it could affect Germany (although not to the level of the OTL III Republic) with the SDP favoring a more pacifist line and demilitarization while you have the conservatives favoring a hard line, to be prepared for any aggression against their vassals.

It should be remembered that Germany in this case would be a democracy, not one like the UK or the US, but the press and the opposition would have a voice, so any incident in Eastern Europe could light a fuse in Berlin.
The latter is a very good point. People forget that it was media attention to von Trotha's excesses in Southwest Afrika that led to his early dismissal.....
 

Riain

Banned
Well, Germany would have to face the following problems once the Great Depression arrived: 1) Economic instability, most likely Germany would have to resort to US loans to reorganize its economy and maintain its new Colonial Empire and Eastern European Interests, if the Crack of 29 or some later variant happens, Germany will have to be much more meticulous with its spending and trade policies, which will have a direct impact on the economy of its vassals 2) Political instability, related to the previous point, political instability it could affect Germany (although not to the level of the OTL III Republic) with the SDP favoring a more pacifist line and demilitarization while you have the conservatives favoring a hard line, to be prepared for any aggression against their vassals.

It should be remembered that Germany in this case would be a democracy, not one like the UK or the US, but the press and the opposition would have a voice, so any incident in Eastern Europe could light a fuse in Berlin.

Sure, but none of this happens in a vacuum. Right next door will be the Soviet Union showing Germanys clients/puppets the alternative of dekulakisation, gulgags, deportation, great purges, artificial famines which even without the Ukrainian holodomor will kill millions of people and ruin millions more.

Total war has not yet become a taboo, so the countries in Mitteleuropa will know they have a choice between it and the Soviet Union if Germany loses a total war. I can't believe they'll be super keen on the Soviet option.
 
I can maybe see a large-scale conflict breaking out a couple decades or so after ATL WW1 assuming an earlier CP victory where Russian territorial losses are limited to the Baltics, Finland, and Poland. But in the event of a Brest-Litovsk analogue where they lose all the above plus the Caucasus and Ukraine, IMO it just isn't happening. Ukraine's coal fields and the oil in the Caucasus were absolutely critical to the USSR's crash-course industrialization, and with the loss of these territories to German-aligned states Russia simply isn't getting them back. Even if Germany is heavy-handed with its new puppet states, the people living there aren't stupid -- given the choice between nominal independence or outright annexation and Russification, they're going to side with Germany every time.

But even if you somehow get a Russia confident enough to go for round 2 with the Central Powers, I struggle to see what paths exist to expand the conflict to a world war. Who is going to ally with Russia? France is often the go-to in these scenarios, but I'm personally very doubtful. France has suffered humiliating defeat to the Germans for the second time in a row now, and their failed attempt at revanche has cost them immense loss in both treasury and human lives. I'm sure there would be plenty of mad men hungry for yet another go at revenge, but how can they convince the rest of France to go along with them? France doesn't have a "Dolchstosslegende". A large portion of the western front was fought on French soil and France's northeastern industrial areas will have been devastated. Even if a revanchist strongman does take charge, he will have a very difficult time IMO convincing the French people that their defeat was merely a fluke.

Who else? Britain? I don't see Britain as having much in the way of a desire for revenge. Even in the event of a CP victory scenario Britain won't really have "lost" in any meaningful sense. Britain had a long-standing foreign policy centered around maintaining the balance of power in Europe, yes, but they weren't mindless. After the war Germany will be bending over backwards trying to restore diplomatic and trade relations with the UK, not setting up some Napoleonic continental system 2.0 and thumbing their noses at them. I think it's far more likely that Britain begrudgingly accepts the new state of affairs as opposed to throwing their hat in with the Bolshevik menace in what would essentially be supporting a communist takeover of Eastern Europe.
 
Sure, but none of this happens in a vacuum. Right next door will be the Soviet Union showing Germanys clients/puppets the alternative of dekulakisation, gulgags, deportation, great purges, artificial famines which even without the Ukrainian holodomor will kill millions of people and ruin millions more.

Total war has not yet become a taboo, so the countries in Mitteleuropa will know they have a choice between it and the Soviet Union if Germany loses a total war. I can't believe they'll be super keen on the Soviet option.
Admittingly in a perverse way we might have to see Germany propping the USSR up as a mad dog cause without Belarus, Ukraine, their parts of Poland and the caucuses I'm pretty sure the USSR is at large risk of collapse, frankly I kind of doubt it will win the war against the whites unless Germany makes sure, which already kind of happened in the OTL as Lenin had no issue pulling troops from the border with the Germans knowing they would attack to fight his rivals.

Germany really got their extremist party to destabilize the Russian empire quite well and as you said it pays dividends.

It should be remembered that Germany in this case would be a democracy, not one like the UK or the US, but the press and the opposition would have a voice, so any incident in Eastern Europe could light a fuse in Berlin.
That could serve as a potential flashpoint for a second world war, Germany potentially exhausted politically after ww1 and more than a decade of deal with insurgencies and snuffing fires out has a massive movement to bring their troops home, and suddenly Germany is seen as weak and or decaying master and you get a gambler or two push the world order Germany set up and are not snuffed out quick enough they cause more conflict and bring in more people could result in a potential world war.
 
I can maybe see a large-scale conflict breaking out a couple decades or so after ATL WW1 assuming an earlier CP victory where Russian territorial losses are limited to the Baltics, Finland, and Poland. But in the event of a Brest-Litovsk analogue where they lose all the above plus the Caucasus and Ukraine, IMO it just isn't happening. Ukraine's coal fields and the oil in the Caucasus were absolutely critical to the USSR's crash-course industrialization, and with the loss of these territories to German-aligned states Russia simply isn't getting them back. Even if Germany is heavy-handed with its new puppet states, the people living there aren't stupid -- given the choice between nominal independence or outright annexation and Russification, they're going to side with Germany every time.

But even if you somehow get a Russia confident enough to go for round 2 with the Central Powers, I struggle to see what paths exist to expand the conflict to a world war. Who is going to ally with Russia? France is often the go-to in these scenarios, but I'm personally very doubtful. France has suffered humiliating defeat to the Germans for the second time in a row now, and their failed attempt at revanche has cost them immense loss in both treasury and human lives. I'm sure there would be plenty of mad men hungry for yet another go at revenge, but how can they convince the rest of France to go along with them? France doesn't have a "Dolchstosslegende". A large portion of the western front was fought on French soil and France's northeastern industrial areas will have been devastated. Even if a revanchist strongman does take charge, he will have a very difficult time IMO convincing the French people that their defeat was merely a fluke.

Who else? Britain? I don't see Britain as having much in the way of a desire for revenge. Even in the event of a CP victory scenario Britain won't really have "lost" in any meaningful sense. Britain had a long-standing foreign policy centered around maintaining the balance of power in Europe, yes, but they weren't mindless. After the war Germany will be bending over backwards trying to restore diplomatic and trade relations with the UK, not setting up some Napoleonic continental system 2.0 and thumbing their noses at them. I think it's far more likely that Britain begrudgingly accepts the new state of affairs as opposed to throwing their hat in with the Bolshevik menace in what would essentially be supporting a communist takeover of Eastern Europe.
Hmm, I see, well, I think it will be time to redirect my ideas.
 
The irony is France in such a scenario may inadvertently become a Green variant of Fascist. Heavy emphasis on recycling and reclamation technologies, synthetics, biotech, and even taking trash from other nations for cheap to get more resources
 
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