Deleted member 1487
My inclination would be to manufacture a political crisis in France that prevents it from getting involved in the back-and-forth mobilization that led to war. War breaks out, and only involves an Eastern and a Southern Front. Germany and Austria-Hungary then administer a couple serious defeats to the Russians in Poland but are unable to achieve much of use. Meanwhile AH would be embarrassing itself at Belgrade.
This would be the only way to have war end by Christmas! The AHs wouldn't founder in front of Belgrade because the shift of forces to Galicia from the Serbian Front OTL that resulted from too few Germans on the Eastern front won't be an issue here. Instead Serbia gets crushed early on and the entire reason for the war is settled.
Though honestly without France signaling their will to get involved Russia won't go to war in 1914. If though France has to weasel out of their treaty obligations, then Russia will have to save face somehow once war is declared, but they are majorly humped. By bowing out early the regime signals its weakness to the people, probably provoking civil unrest turning into revolution, or stick out the war and suffer huge damage to the nation and suffer revolution from the losses.
Either way Germany and AH win big politically, as France is now marginalized without Russia (and financially hit because Russian loans aren't getting repaid), while Britain has lost her most important ally on the continent, as France cannot stand up to Germany by herself even with the BEF. Plus the Germans now have Mittel Europa as their playground and a stabilized ally.
As others have said, the fall of Paris is the obvious solution.
Why didn't I use it? Because, aside from the sheer difficulty, and that taking it would leave them so overstretched that successes for the Entente would be an immediate risk, there's no certain guarantee that the French stop fighting. A chance, yes, but no certainty.
If we force things so the Germans take a little more time, arrive able to fight, and then take Paris, and if we assume the French call for a ceasefire, that's still not enough. Britain and Russia have to be brought to a ceasefire as well. Getting that before Christmas? I just don't see it.
The reverse is even less likely.
You can probably avoid utter Russian defeat in East Prussia, but you can't get much of a victory. And the French strategy at the war's opening simply would not induce the Germans to surrender by Christmas.
No I think you need to limit the war to meet the conditions of the challenge.
Now this is utter truth. Really the only way that the Moltke plan (as it no longer really belonged to Schlieffen) could work is if the French screwed up more than OTL. I mean HARD. The French 5th army would have to get destroyed early on, as it nearly walked into a trap OTL, and it wouldn't hurt to have the BEF encircled at Mons, again which nearly happened if not for Bülow's orders to Kluck on the eve of that battle.
Assuming this plays out Paris is besieged (remember it is fortified), which cripples France as a combatant, leaving her armies in retreat to stay in the game. They are intact (relatively and minus the 5th army), but have lost most of the crucial parts of the nation, including the border forts. It is a replay of 1870, with France prostrate, but unwilling to surrender, which gives Germany the breathing space to send some troops east in October-November. AH is beaten, still in the game, but maimed. Russia loses at Lodz like OTL, but now is on the defensive with the Eastern Front the main sector. The war lasts into 1915 with AH doing better thanks to much more German support, but the Western Front remains hot. Eventually a truce probably is reached in 1915 that favors the CPs, but leaves Russia and France intact enough to remain threats later in the century. Britain is bitter and possibly plotting revenge too. All we have is an ugly setting for another go in the 30's or 40's with mechanization and larger populations than OTL. Germany is much stronger than OTL, but AH remains a millstone around her neck, especially after the delegitimization of the losses in the Great War.
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