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I wasn't quite sure where to put this, as I'm asking specifically for a modern result but with a pre-1900 POD. This feels right, though.
So all but the most aggressive predictions for the world show population growth tapering off in the near future. My challenge to you is not to mess with that trend, but to lower the overall number of people at the point of tapering.
Can anyone think of a scenario beginning in the modern era (roughly 1500 CE or later) where, by the time global population begins to taper, there are 4-5 billion people on the planet rather than 8-10?
Please note that the tapering doesn't have to occur exactly on schedule. If you feel you can bring it about earlier, that'd be interesting to hear. But not too much later.
Also, keep things roughly OTL as per the level of catastrophe. Plague after plague is not the answer I'm looking for.