AHC: World Population Tops off at 4-5 billion

I wasn't quite sure where to put this, as I'm asking specifically for a modern result but with a pre-1900 POD. This feels right, though.

So all but the most aggressive predictions for the world show population growth tapering off in the near future. My challenge to you is not to mess with that trend, but to lower the overall number of people at the point of tapering.

Can anyone think of a scenario beginning in the modern era (roughly 1500 CE or later) where, by the time global population begins to taper, there are 4-5 billion people on the planet rather than 8-10?

Please note that the tapering doesn't have to occur exactly on schedule. If you feel you can bring it about earlier, that'd be interesting to hear. But not too much later.

Also, keep things roughly OTL as per the level of catastrophe. Plague after plague is not the answer I'm looking for.:p
 

Deleted member 67076

Speed up technology, education and wealth. The Demographic transition will follow shortly.

Easiest way to do that would probably be to keep Europe from becoming so dominant. Which means strengthening competitors. I suppose a surviving Mughal Empire and Incan Empires along with non stagnating Chinese and Ottoman empires would tip things further along the balance.
 

jahenders

Banned
Several possibilities/contributors:
- More famine/disease in the 16-1900s
- Earlier development/education would start the decrease earlier in some areas
- Less medical development in 1850-1950
- Delay development of improved agriculture methods in 1700+
 
Well, the Roman Empire's before the era I want to examine (I won't say POD, because I recognize this is accomplished with trends rather than a single point).

Increasing the number of plagues and famines is kind of increasing the level of catastrophe, which is another thing I wanted to avoid.

And retarding scientific advancement in any way is dubious, I would think. Without scientific advancement you get into a Tragedy of the Commons endgame, where yields continue to diminish while the population continues to grow, until the whole system collapses. Definitely sounds like catastrophe to me.

Soverihn's reply seems like the winner:


Speed up technology, education and wealth. The Demographic transition will follow shortly.

Easiest way to do that would probably be to keep Europe from becoming so dominant. Which means strengthening competitors. I suppose a surviving Mughal Empire and Incan Empires along with non stagnating Chinese and Ottoman empires would tip things further along the balance.
 
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