AHC: Wittelsbach Spain and Poland/HRE

Your challenge is, in a scenario where Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Ferdinand_of_Bavaria_%281692-1699%29) doesn't die and becomes King of Spain on the death of Charles the Bewitched, his half-brother Charles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_VII,_Holy_Roman_Emperor) also becomes King of Poland, if only briefly.

EDIT: What I see is Joseph marrying a Portuguese infanta - Teresa Maria of Portugal (who IOTL was betrothed to Charles of Austria before dying in 1704) or her sister Francisca Josefa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant...fa_of_Portugal), and Charles marrying his cousin, Maria Karolina Sobieska, thus being doubly descended from King John III of Poland.
 
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THe problem comes in that Karl VII claimed the Imperial title because of his marriage to Josef I's (younger) daughter. By marrying him to Karolyna Sobieska that claim is this butterflied away. But I doubt he could be HRE AND king of PLC, it seems an either/or situation.
 
THe problem comes in that Karl VII claimed the Imperial title because of his marriage to Josef I's (younger) daughter. By marrying him to Karolyna Sobieska that claim is this butterflied away. But I doubt he could be HRE AND king of PLC, it seems an either/or situation.

Right. Now I've just limited it to King of Poland.

Of the candidates I initially listed, who do people think Joseph Ferdinand would be more likely to marry? Elisabeth Farnese, OTL second wife of Philip V of Spain, or Louisa Maria Stuart, daughter of the deposed James II of England?
 
Well, a consideration might be the Portuguese infanta who was originally betrothed to Charles of Austria until she died in 1704 during his fight for the crown. That way you can at least be sure of money galore - she'll come with a ridonkulous dowry, plus, she's not Austrian or French, which means you can avoid pissing the other side off. Isabella Farnese as I remember was the princesse des Ursins idea, not Versailles, who weren't very happy with the idea (something about them considering her not important enough for a king). La Consolatrice is perhaps only going to end up as queen of Spain in the case of Felipe V.
 
Right. Now I've just limited it to King of Poland.

Of the candidates I initially listed, who do people think Joseph Ferdinand would be more likely to marry? Elisabeth Farnese, OTL second wife of Philip V of Spain, or Louisa Maria Stuart, daughter of the deposed James II of England?

I think it comes down to who is deciding on who to marry Josef to. If it's his father as regent then they might decide on Maria Josefa of Austria. Isabel Farnese is still on the board, if only to prevent a possible marriage between her and Karl VI. LMTS is in the position she has no dowry - who's going to provide it for her? Her mom's so poor (if not broke) to the extent she can't replace the horses for her carriage when they die, her half-sister is listening to her fingers and pretending neither she nor her brother exist, and the minute Louis XIV contributes a franc to her dowry, England's gonna go to war with him - and her brother is still alive, so it's not even as though she can use England as a bargaining chip.
 
Well, a consideration might be the Portuguese infanta who was originally betrothed to Charles of Austria until she died in 1704 during his fight for the crown. That way you can at least be sure of money galore - she'll come with a ridonkulous dowry, plus, she's not Austrian or French, which means you can avoid pissing the other side off. Isabella Farnese as I remember was the princesse des Ursins idea, not Versailles, who weren't very happy with the idea (something about them considering her not important enough for a king). La Consolatrice is perhaps only going to end up as queen of Spain in the case of Felipe V.

I think it comes down to who is deciding on who to marry Josef to. If it's his father as regent then they might decide on Maria Josefa of Austria. Isabel Farnese is still on the board, if only to prevent a possible marriage between her and Karl VI. LMTS is in the position she has no dowry - who's going to provide it for her? Her mom's so poor (if not broke) to the extent she can't replace the horses for her carriage when they die, her half-sister is listening to her fingers and pretending neither she nor her brother exist, and the minute Louis XIV contributes a franc to her dowry, England's gonna go to war with him - and her brother is still alive, so it's not even as though she can use England as a bargaining chip.

I reckon Teresa Maria of Portugal (the infanta who died in 1704), or perhaps her sister - Francisca Josefa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infanta_Francisca_Josefa_of_Portugal), would be the best candidate for Joseph Ferdinand. That way Spain gets money via her dowry and Portugal gets recognition from the rest of Europe.

Isabella could still end up marrying Philip of Anjou, perhaps as Queen of Naples. I found OTL Charles III of Spain to be a fascinating person.
 
What I see is Joseph marrying either Elisabeth Farnese or Louisa Maria Stuart

A choice of the future Queen of Spain between Stuart and Farnese is not so obvious.

Louise Maria Therese Stuart (1692–1712): daughter of a dethroned king, retired from the King of France, who has refused her even as wife of his third nephew, the Duke of Berry[1], why she should have been chosen to become Queen of Spain?

Elisabetta Farnese (1692–1766): the discourse for this princess is more articulate.
In the European context she had no a political influence so large as to be considered a future bride for a king[2].
1. The stepfather-uncle Duke Francesco Farnese is known for his anti-Austrian sentiments, and only the War of Spanish Succession brought him to orientate for the Imperials.
Now, if on the Spanish throne there is Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria (1692–...), a relative of the Habsburgs and a candidate not unwelcome, presumably there is no war, the Duke remains anti-Austrian and has no political interest toward Spain, but he has a policy of alliance with Italian princes to limit the foreign powers.
=> Elisabetta, most probably, would marry one of the two suitors that she had in the OTL, the Prince of Piedmont Vittorio Amedeo of Savoy (1699–1715), son of Vittorio Amedeo II, or Francesco (III) d'Este (1698–1780), son of Duke Rinaldo of Modena.
As in OTL, in addition to the dowry of 300,000 shields, the Duke Francesco Farnese could add in "over dowry" «l'eredità eventuale di questi stati» (the eventual legacy of these states) [doing then arise a problem on which, because of the War of Spanish Succession and the War of Polish Succession, has "passed over": Parma and Piacenza are a feud Imperial or Papal feud? In the end it would come to a dismemberment of the duchy (Piacenza to the Savoy, Parma to the Este)?].
2. Thanks to those who Elisabetta Farnese was proposed as a new bride to the widower Philip V?
Giulio Alberoni and Marie Anne de la Trémouille, Princesse des Ursins.
+ Giulio Alberoni (1664–1752).
In OTL during the War of Spanish Succession, the Duke Francesco Farnese, hesitant about what position to take, availed himself of Roncovieri Alexander, Bishop of Borgo San Donnino, for a finding mission to the Duke Louis Joseph de Vendôme (1654–1712), commander French forces; Roncovieri took with him Alberoni as interpreter.
At the end of 1703 Alberoni remains alone, as an observer. With his skills and personal with great gifts, he attracted the general sympathies, earning the friendship of Vendôme, followed him in military campaigns and by the duke was introduced to Court of Versailles and presented to King Louis XIV.
When the French Court has taken over the party of peace at any cost, even at the cost to abandon Philip V, Louis XIV sent in diplomatic mission Vendôme (1710), with Alberoni among the retinue.
In Spain Alberoni, first in a role not well-defined, then as "ambassador" of the Farnese (1713), he captivated the sympathy of King Philip V and of the all-powerful Princess Orsini.
When the Queen Maria Luisa Gabriella of Savoy died (1714), Alberoni has been able skillfully play between the various parties of the Court and he has been able to obtain acceptance by the Princess Orsini, the arbiter of the situation at that time, of the candidature of Elisabetta Farnese.
+ Marie Anne de La Trémoille, Princesse des Ursins (1642–1722).
Protected of Louis XIV, she got it, thanks to the intercession of Madame de Maintenon, her close friend, the coveted post of "Camarera Mayor de Palacio" (Mistress of the Robes) of Maria Luisa Gabriella of Savoy (1688–1714), first wife of Philip V.
The Princess Orsini soon became arbiter of the will of the Royal couple and real head in the affairs of the State, true eminence grise of all Spain.
She was courted politically by Alberoni, who painted Elisabetta Farnese to her as a "guarantee": Elisabetta was Italian, in tribute to the memory of the late Queen, good companion but alien from politics, unintelligent, uneducated, not beautiful because she marked by smallpox, bred to good in a minor and provincial Court, and - last but not least advantage - heir of the duchy of the Farnese and the rights to the succession of Tuscany [as a descendant of Margherita de' Medici, wife of Odoardo]. All excellent credentials in the eyes of Orsini who hoped, so, to retain her power over the Spanish Court.
=> then: no Philip Duc d'Anjou as King Philip V of Spain = no Alberoni, no Princesse des Ursins.
=> then, no Alberoni and no Princesse des Ursins = no candidature of Elisabetta Farnese as bride for the King of Spain (the Duke Francesco Farnese is anti-imperial).
Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria (1692–...) as King of Spain
1st November 1700, King Charles II of Spain dies.
Cardinal Luis Manuel Fernández de Portocarrero (1635–1709), Archbishop of Toledo, is put at the head of government.
+ Supporter of the need for peace with France, in the question of succession of Charles II of Spain favored the designation as heir to the Prince of Bavaria.
In OTL, the Bavaria's death (1699), sided decisively in favor of the French party and of the Duc d'Anjou who seemed destined to ensure the unity and integrity of the State.
Head of government of the Regency and then Councillor of Philip V, for his political incapacity and his little noticed economic reforms (causing serious unrest), in 1703 fell out of favor, and passed between the supporters of Charles of Austria. After the war, Philip V forgave him.
=> with Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria as King, by him favored, he remains head of government of the Regency (the king has only 8/9 years).
Marie Anne of Neuburg (1667–1740), widow of the deceased King Charles II of Spain.
+ Supporter of the Prince of Bavaria, designated as heir in the first testament of Charles II, she then joined the Austrian party. The new king, Philip V, ordered her to leave Madrid.
=> with Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria as King, by her favored, she remains at Court.
Maximilian II Emanuel of Bavaria (1662–1726), father of Joseph Ferdinand Leopold
+ Governor of the Spanish Netherlands (1692); son in law of Emperor Leopold I.
=> With his son Joseph Ferdinand Leopold as King, he might be appointed as Regent.
=> Participant in the bad government of Portocarrero, he fell from office of Regent (1703).
=> Marie Anne of Neuburg may be appointed Regent with new head of government Manuel Arias Porres (1639–1717), Archbishop of Seville, or with the return to power of Manuel Joaquin Alvarez de Toledo (1664–1707), Count of Oropesa.
1706: Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria is declared of age.
+ To prevent a dynastic crisis it is necessary for the young king get married and have an heir to the succession.
=> As with Louis XV, it is necessary to choose a princess, not a baby but an adult girl and able to get pregnant as soon as possible and produce an heir.
1. The ideal candidate is Maria Luisa Gabriella of Savoy (1688–1714), daughter of Victor Amadeus II.
+ As in OTL, the Duke of Savoy was creditor towards Spain of considerable sums and wanted to be paid: such amounts could have been deducted from the dowry of the Princess;
+ As in OTL, the Duchess of Burgundy, sister of the princess, has part in the conclusion of the wedding, in this case to promote peace between the Empire and France through Spain.
=> If as in OTL Maria Luisa Gabriella of Savoy dies in 1714 and Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria decides to remarry, Elisabetta Farnese would in any case out of the game because there would be for her sponsors [no Alberoni and no Princesse des Ursins; she would only her maternal aunt Maria Anna of Neuburg, but she would have more important nieces to sponsor].
The choice could fall on the OTL's candidates for the second marriage of Philip V:
a) Maria Vittoria of Savoy-Carignan (1687–1763) and Isabella Luisa of Savoy-Carignan (1688–1767), daughter of Emanuele Filiberto of Savoy-Carignano and Angela Maria Caterina d'Este [difficult];
b) Francisca Josefa of Braganza (1699–1766), daughter of Peter II of Portugal and Maria Sophia of Neuburg;
c) Marie Anne Caroline of Bavaria (1696–1750), daughter of Maximilian Emmanuel of Bavaria and his second wife Therese Cunegonde Sobieski [NO, because his stepsister].
2. Marie Anne of Austria (1683–1754), daughter of Emperor Leopold I and Eleonor Magdalene of Neuburg; in OTL married John V of Portugal (1689–1750) in 1708;
3. Marie Magdalene of Austria (1689–1743), sister of the previous;
4. one of the daughters of Philip II Duke of Orléans
=> The nn. 2-4 choices would be "biased", while the princess of Savoy would be a choice "neutral" and inclusive.

[1] Intimate friend and confidant of the Duchess of Burgundy Maria Adelaide of Savoy (1685–1712); it was the duchess to advocate the proposed marriage of her friend with the brother in law.
[2] She was the daughter of Odoardo Farnese, eldest son of the Duke Ranuccio II, and of Dorothea Sophie of Neuburg, daughter of the Elector Palatine Philip William [she has a sister married to the Emperor Leopold I, and another sister to King Charles II of Spain. For not lose her influential family relations and her rich dowry, when Odoardo died, Dorothea Sophie married the brother Francesco, eight years junior of her and new Duke. During the thirty years of marriage, serene and well-matched, Dorothea Sophie submit herself to zealous cares for remain pregnant again, but the marriage will remain sterile. Elisabetta seems destined at a wedding, at most, in a secondary European Court, expecially if it were to be born a male heir. Moreover in 1710 smallpox in acute form (so violent that it was feared for her life) has left Elisabetta's face and arms marked and partially disfigured, with inevitable negative impact on her marriage aspirations.
 
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I didn't know the stuff about Elisabetta but as to Louisa Maria Therese Stuart, Urbanus, I've seen it cited in biographies of her father and brother, Louis XIV, Marie-Adélaïde and Liselotte that the reason for her not getting married was not because she didn't want to (although she was pious, she was also the usual fun-loving teenager (the biography on her brother actually goes so far as to contrast her high-spirits, liveliness with JFES' more reserved temperament) but rather because they were both in a decidedly awkward position - too important to match with just anybody (although Mary Beatrice did express this sentiment after her uncle refused to allow JFES to marry Rinaldo's daughter, Benedetta (whom he seems to have had a genuine affection for), that he marry someone simply of good standing and good reputation) if they were restored, but until then they simply weren't important enough (considering that Berri married a daughter of one of La Montespan's bastards, which a king's daughter would automatically outstrip in rank. Many have posited that if both had survived their OTL deaths, the new dauphine would've pushed for Louisa to remarry the widower Philip V of Spain.
 
You are right, Jonas. In the previous post we have focused on Elisabetta Farnese.
But you have to consider that, probably, the Louise Maria Therese Stuart of this scenario is different from the LMT of OTL
For example, a simple reasoning could lead to some considerations about the possible difficulty in choosing of LMT as a bride for Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria as King of Spain.

JFL comes of age in 1706, and from that date forward we can think of a marriage for him.
But what has happened in European politics between 1700 and 1706?

1. How JFL was chosen to be the heir of Charles II of Spain?
=> [unofficially] in the Treaty of The Hague (or First Partition Treaty), a SECRET arrangement between the England of William III and the France of Louis XIV to prevent the outbreak of war at the Charles II's death.
very important: It was an informal approach between Louis and William.
# Reasons for signing the treaty:
+ for William: a) avoid a chaotic situation because there was no a clear successor to the Spanish throne; b) Spain and the Spanish Netherlands [important for the United Provinces] would remain independent;
+ for Louis: a) the power of France, in any case, would significantly increase due to the Italian possessions; b) Louis therefore would have had the peaceful acquisition of Spain's Italian possessions.
Real Reasons:
+ for William:
a) the real English/Dutch interest was purely for the benefit of their business interests: to exclude the French pretender (= to exclude the competition of the French enemies in the English/Dutch trade with the Spain) and the imperial pretender (in age rule alone) it meant to keep the Spanish monarchy weak (JFL was under regency until at least 1706) and to favor the English/Dutch commercial dominance (the commercial intercourse with Spain and her dependencies was indeed highly important; a considerable number of British merchants at that time lived in many ports of Spain);
b) the English/Dutch public opinion did not wish be disturbed by the Spanish question in their trade with that country and its colonies;
c) England, now that it had just ended the war against France (Treaty of Ryswick), wished a lasting peace: the Commons passed a resolution that all the land forces raised since 1680 should be disbanded (the old aversion against a standing land-army!) and the dismissal of Dutch troops whom the King William had brought over with him from Holland and still paid by means of his Civil List
=> William was militarily weak
+ for Louis:
a) at only a few months since the Treaty of Ryswick, Louis had the wish to preserve France from a new war;
b) in September 1698, at the conclusion of the negotiation, it was clear to Louis that in Spain the time was not yet ripe to accept the succession of one of his grandsons, because none of the Grandees wished this, and none force was ready in Spain to support the French claim. And in the case in which he had taken by force the kingdom, the other Powers would have formed certainly a league against France;
# implicit importance of the treaty:
even if the Emperor Leopold was not invited to the negotiations and although JFL looked like a "middle way", the treaty was a victory for the English policy against France, and consequently, a victory of the Habsburg policy because:
1. acknowledges the two formal acts of renunciation of Maria Teresa, wife of Louis XIV, in which she renounced all her hereditary rights on the dominions of her father, for her and for her descendants male and female, in order that it could not happen to unite the Spanish kingdom and other territories under the sceptre of King of France [mitigated in the treaty with the award of the Italian territories];
2. acknowledges for valid the provisions of the Will of Philip IV (confirmed by the Cortes of Spain), who had expressly stated in his testament that, after the renunciation of the eldest daughter, it was in the person of second surviving daughter Margaret that would be assigned the rights to the Spanish throne after the eventual death without heirs of Charles II
=> Louis and William consider that the Electoral Prince JFL, when of age, will not object to the renunciations imposed on him by the Partition Treaty, if this treaty should be the sole source of his right;
=> [officially, after that the Court of Madrid has become aware of the Partition Treaty] the Will of 1698: King Charles II had appointed the Electoral Prince of Bavaria his successor to the Crown;
+ Charles II and the Spanish Government , independently of the Partition Treaty, have the idea to recognize of the rights of the Electoral Prince JFL as a means to transfer ALL dominions of the Crown of Spain from Chailes II to his successor
+ the idea of a partition of the Spanish monarchy is refused with vehement indignation by the Spaniards: this document was an attempt to save the integrity of the monarchy from the danger of being dismembered from the agreement between France and the other Powers.
=> the Will of Charles II in 1698 confirmed at the same time the testament of Philip IV. In case of a minority of the future King, Queen Mary Anne was to hold the regency together with a Junta of six persons.
2. If the succession of JFL has taken place, a general war would really have been avoided?
=> probably, but...
+ Louis knew that William had none hope of carrying English Parliament along with him to a war against France after the last parliamentary decision to dismiss the land forces...
+ the Ministers of the Emperor Leopold, formally, were ignorant of the contents of the secret Partition Treaty between Louis and William...
=> Leopold accepets the Partition Treaty? [originally Spain, colonies and the Belgic Provinces to JFL, The Italian dependencies (kingdoms of Naples and Sicily, the places belonging to Spain along the Tuscany coast), the marquisate of Finale and the Spanish province of Guipuzcoa, contiguous to France, to the Dauphin, duchy of Milan to Archduke Charles, the second son of Leopold];
=> It's doubt that he is content with only of duchy of Milan...
(Wikipedia.en articles have mixed the provisions of the First and the Second Treaty of Partition, "have forgotten" the secret article that claimed to the succession JFL's father in case of his death, the project of territorial exchanges proposed by France (June-August 1699) before the Second Treaty [Treaty of London (1700)], but after the death of JFL, are placed in the First Treaty [Treaty of The Hague (1698)], etc.)
=> probably a mini-war between Austria and France for the Spanish Italian possessions...
+ large diversity of interests:
a) Leopold wished to secure for his House the Italian possessions of the Spanish Crown;
b) the Maritime Powers not wished the French competition in their trade with Spain and her transatlantic colonies;
c) for Holland it was important that the Belgic Provinces, a valuable barrier against France, did not pass to France;

3. If JFL becomes King of Spain:
=> no Second Treaty of Partition;
=> no new Will of Charles II (October 1700) in favor of Duc d'Anjou (to inherit the whole Spanish monarchy, with all its world-wide interests and possessions undivided; no part of the monarchy should be alienated and no part should never be united with any other foreign State, against the policy of the Partition Treaties);
=> in OTL Louis XIV accepts the Will of Charles II and fails to comply the Second Treaty of Partition;
=> no Maritime Powers considers Louis XIV a great danger;
=> no union of the French and Spanish navies
=> there is no danger in the opinion of the English and the Dutch;
=> probably no William's/English foreign policy of OTL;
=> probably no Grand Alliance (1701) to the establishment of the general peace [in reality only because England and Holland would like acquire security for their dominions and for their commercial interests!];
=> In this climate and in these good relations, the relationship between Louis and William could have been better: the informal approach at the secret Partition Treaty, could become formal; though since 1697 William had been acknowledged by French diplomacy as King of Great Britain, yet this acknowledgment had been given only implicitly, not expressly, by Article IV of the Treaty of Ryswick between France and England;
=> Louis could decide to not acknowledge the son of the deposed James II as King James III of England, Scotland, and Ireland (1701) [In OTL when Louis has accorded to the son of James II the title of King of England, the English patriotic indignation rose to a height which it had seldom reached before];
[=> the English are less angry, no Act of Settlement?]
=> certainly/probably, in 1706, without even the formal recognition by France of Louis XIV, Louise Maria Therese Stuart would not have a political importance such as to be considered a candidate to marry the King of Spain.
 
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I didn't know much of that, Urbanus. Thank you. To be honest, part of the reason I selected Louisa Maria Stuart as a candidate was the possibility of clearing out the Wittelsbach-Hapsburg gene pool.

But now that I think about it, a Portuguese marriage - Infanta Teresa Maria of Portugal (the infanta who died in 1704) or her sister Francisca Josefa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant...fa_of_Portugal) - would be the best solution. Peter II of Portugal had just discovered gold mines in Brazil, and IOTL, as Kellan Sullivan pointed out, the marriage between Teresa Maria and Charles of Austria was supposed to come with a large dowry.

EDIT: BTW, seeing as there were four Aragonese kings named Peter and only one Castilian king named Peter, would a united Spanish monarch named Peter be called Peter II or Peter V?
 
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EDIT: BTW, seeing as there were four Aragonese kings named Peter and only one Castilian king named Peter, would a united Spanish monarch named Peter be called Peter II or Peter V?

Historically the ordinal number preferred was the Castilian (Ferdinand "VI" (1713–1759), Alfonso "XII" (1857–1885), and, before, Ferdinand "II" of Aragon (1452–1516) became Ferdinand "V" of Castile as king-consort of Isabella); for the Bourbons the choice was also "easier" ;) because with the Decretos de Nueva Planta (1707–1716) Philip V punished the Crown of Aragon (Because it supported Charles of Habsburg) depriving it of its autonomy.
Previously the Habsburgs, though using the title of "King of Spain", had a federalist organization of the various kingdoms (for example Philip IV of Spain, was Philip "IV" as King of Castile, but Philip "III" as King of Aragon, because Philip the Handsome no King of Aragon, only King of Castile).
=> Decretos de Nueva Planta: from a composite monarchy (personal union of different kingdoms under the same Crown) to a unified monarchy, where all the other kingdoms, while continuing to exist nominally, were subjected to the institutions, laws and authority of the Castile.
Now:
=> no Philip V as King of Spain
=> no War of the Spanish Succession
=> no support of the Crown of Aragon to the Arciduke Charles
=> no Decretos de Nueva Planta?
There would then be the question of the so-called "Peter V of Aragon", Peter of Coimbra (1429–1466), grandson of King John I of Portugal, claimed to the Crown of Aragon (1463) in opposition to John II: in a family relationship with the sovereigns of Portugal...:D
 
Historically the ordinal number preferred was the Castilian (Ferdinand "VI" (1713–1759), Alfonso "XII" (1857–1885), and, before, Ferdinand "II" of Aragon (1452–1516) became Ferdinand "V" of Castile as king-consort of Isabella); for the Bourbons the choice was also "easier" ;) because with the Decretos de Nueva Planta (1707–1716) Philip V punished the Crown of Aragon (Because it supported Charles of Habsburg) depriving it of its autonomy.
Previously the Habsburgs, though using the title of "King of Spain", had a federalist organization of the various kingdoms (for example Philip IV of Spain, was Philip "IV" as King of Castile, but Philip "III" as King of Aragon, because Philip the Handsome no King of Aragon, only King of Castile).
=> Decretos de Nueva Planta: from a composite monarchy (personal union of different kingdoms under the same Crown) to a unified monarchy, where all the other kingdoms, while continuing to exist nominally, were subjected to the institutions, laws and authority of the Castile.
Now:
=> no Philip V as King of Spain
=> no War of the Spanish Succession
=> no support of the Crown of Aragon to the Arciduke Charles
=> no Decretos de Nueva Planta?
There would then be the question of the so-called "Peter V of Aragon", Peter of Coimbra (1429–1466), grandson of King John I of Portugal, claimed to the Crown of Aragon (1463) in opposition to John II: in a family relationship with the sovereigns of Portugal...:D

"Okay" I thouight, but then when I was looking up Carlist claimants to the throne of Spain, the supporters of Jaime, Duke of Madrid usually referred to him as James III, and there were never any Castilian monarchs named James. An exception?

As for how Charles (OTL HRE Charles VII) might become King of Poland, if only briefly, what are his chances? There were no less than eighteen candidates for the throne upon the death his TTL grandfather-in-law, including Augustus 'the Strong' of Saxony, Stanisław I Leszczyńsk, Francis Louis, Prince of Condi, and Maximilian of Bavaria, Joseph Ferdinand and Charles' own fathe.
 
"Okay" I thouight, but then when I was looking up Carlist claimants to the throne of Spain, the supporters of Jaime, Duke of Madrid usually referred to him as James III, and there were never any Castilian monarchs named James. An exception?

Very interesting question.
Los Carlistas Don Juan Carlos de Borbón y Braganza, Count of Montizón (1822–1887), whether Don Jaime de Borbón y de Borbón-Parma, called Duke of Madrid (1870–1931) and grandson of the previous, in effect, have chosen the numbering (III) of the kingship of Aragon and Catalonia.

The explanation is simple.
The first uprisings in support of Carlos Maria Isidro, proclaimed king by his followers with the name of Carlos V, occurred a few days after the death of Fernando VII, but were suffocated easily everywhere except in the Basque Country, Navarra, Aragon, Catalonia and Valencia (Primera Guerra Carlista 1833–1840). The main battlefield in the Segunda Guerra Carlista (1846–1849) were the rural areas of Catalonia, although there were some episodes in Aragón, Navarra and Guipúzcoa, and in the Tercera Guerra Carlista (1872–1876) the main theaters of conflict were the rural areas of the Basque Country, Navarra and Catalonia, and less impact in areas such as Aragon, Valencia and Castilla.
It was a matter of political choice (and craftiness) to attract sympathies: Los Carlistas needed the support of Catalonia-Aragon-Valencia to go against Los Isabelinos of Madrid and nothing more sympathetic to the cause to adopt the Aragonese ordinal number against the Castilian "arrogance" of Los isabelinos.

Probably, if Los Carlistas had gone from being kings "de jure" to be kings "de facto", they would assumed the Castilian ordinal number, as was done with Fernandos and Afonsos.
 
I think if you're looking for a Wittelsbach to become king of Poland, it can't be the same person who is already king of Spain OR Holy Roman Emperor. Hell, most of Europe backed slowly away from the Habsburgs when Josef I died since they didn't fancy an empire from the Carpathians to the Andes. That said, Max II had enough sons in the cloth, but only one other son (OTL) groomed for a secular life - Ferdinand Maria. Maybe propose him as candidate for Poland, but the minute the rest of Europe get wind of a Wittelsbach wank there'll be war.
 
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