AHC: With a POD after the Mexican-American War, have Mexico develop to the same level as Canada and the US

[NAF]

Here are some rules to add clarification to the challenge:

• The POD may occur at any point following the end of the Mexican-American War.
• By the modern-day Mexican territory must be more or less identical to that of OTL -- so no retaking of Central America or the Northern territories lost to the US.
• US screws must be minimalized -- minor negatives such as losing small amounts of immigrants to Mexico are permitted but breakaway states or outright collapse are not.
• "Development" is a rather vague term, so the sole metric we will use here is HDI. For the goal of the challenge to be met, Mexico must by the modern-day have an HDI in the range of 0.910-0.930.
• Annexation by the United States is not an acceptable answer.

And finally, feel free to ignore these questions, as they're solely out of curiosity:

• How does such a Mexico impact the globe in terms of immigration patterns, cultural influence, and geopolitics?
  • Would Mexico become the largest target for Latin American immigrants in TTL instead of the US? Would TTL's US have a much smaller Hispanic population?
  • How widespread do you see Mexican culture becoming across the globe? Could Mexico have its equivalent of "blue jeans and rock n' roll" as cultural export?
  • What type of relationship do you see developing between the US and TTL's Mexico?

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Can Central American states at least be made protectorates or dependencies of Mexico? In any case, while I don't think it's really possible to develop to quite the same level as the US with such a late POD (arguably the problems start from well before independence, Spanish colonies were not set up for self-sufficiency) it should be possible to do a good deal better than OTL Mexico. I'd assume the solution revolves around both creating a stronger sense of political stability as early as possible while also introducing more or at least earlier liberal reforms.

 

[NAF]

Can Central American states at least be made protectorates or dependencies of Mexico? In any case, while I don't think it's really possible to develop to quite the same level as the US with such a late POD (arguably the problems start from well before independence, Spanish colonies were not set up for self-sufficiency) it should be possible to do a good deal better than OTL Mexico. I'd assume the solution revolves around both creating a stronger sense of political stability as early as possible while also introducing more or at least earlier liberal reforms.

So long as there is no formal annexation of territory then it's fair game.

 

[M79]

*Maximillian and Juarez make peace early in 1864
*They walk a fine line between reform and keeping the Church/Landowners sufficiently placated as not to rebel further
*Much more investment into public works, schools, and industry
*Trade bloc with much of the former Gran Colombia, Haiti, and Central America
*Mexico expands her Navy, eventually overtaking the US presence in Hawaii and incorporating the islands as a 'special province' with a hereditary governor. This triggers US naval expansion as Mahan completes, Impact of Sea Power on History.
*Mexico begin naval expansion to a somewhat lesser degree as a means of expanding its steel and naval industries, finding a market selling not-quite-second rate ships to second and third tier nations
*Mondragon Rifles make Mexico first to adopt semi-automatic magazine-loaded firearms for its army
*World War I sees a neutral Mexico sell goods to both Allies and Central Powers while allowing the Central Powers to send scientists and families there for safety, over a third remain after the war alongside increased Catholic immigration
*'Banana Republics' emerge with pro-Mexican parties preferring annexation to Mexico and freedom to 'independence' under American auspices via the United Fruit Company
*World War II sees the resurgent Mexico invade Guatemala to deal with Nazi influence there, they purge the German influence and leave the country a satellite
*European Catholics continue immigration to Imperial Mexico and reinforce an already burgeoning economy
*By 1965 the Catholic League, an indepenent bloc of 'Third World' countries, makes its home in Mexico City and representing much of southern Europe, Latin America, and even parts of East Asia

 

[Allochronian]

1) Let Juarez accept the position of Prime Minister and serve with Maximilian. A constitutional monarchy under two liberals will grant stability to Mexico.
2) Have Porfirio Díaz actually step down and not rig the 1910 election, avoiding a very violent civil war and his name will be viewed upon more positively, but still mixed. There might still be some kind of revolution, but not as destructive as it was in real-life.
3) Allow the PRI to reform during its glory years, such as allowing free elections and not hosting the 1968 Olympics.

 

[jycee]

*Maximillian and Juarez make peace early in 1864
*They walk a fine line between reform and keeping the Church/Landowners sufficiently placated as not to rebel further

1) Let Juarez accept the position of Prime Minister and serve with Maximilian. A constitutional monarchy under two liberals will grant stability to Mexico.

I think you have to start even earlier and avoid the outbreak of the Reform War in 1857 altogether.

Have Herrera run for reelection in 1850 and win a second term. Herrera was a moderate Federalist that most Conservatives could stomach. A second term gives Herrera the opportunity to bring fiscal stability to Mexico while avoiding the conservative coup in 1853 against Arista (Herrera's hotheaded successor), Santa Anna's return in 1853, and the outbreak of the Reform War over the Liberal Constitution in 1857.
However, we still run into a bit of trouble during the 1854 election, by this point Herrera's health was deteriorating (so he is unlikely to run for a third term) and the same goes for Mariano Arista (his most likely successor). If we have a moderate Conservative win you might have a peaceful transfer of power between the major factions for the first time since Independence, and it might keep either radical faction from "inviting" Santa Anna back to power.
Reforms to the 1824 Constitution are slowly introduced avoiding anything as radical as the Lerdo Law (which confiscated Church and Indigenous real estate) and a moderate Juarez Law (which eliminated ecclesiastical and military courts). And take it from there with investments in public works, schools, industry, trade, the navy, and hopefully political stability. Greater immigration from Southern Europe will also help significantly.

Without going crazy Mexico can still have some additional territory than OTL with this POD, by simply not selling the Mesilla/Gadsen territory and with more favorable settlements to its border disputes with British Honduras (Belize) and Guatemala in the southeast. With the latter two, Mexico can have the border with Belize at the Belize River and gain the Soconusco and Peten region from Guatemala (you'd really be screwing Guatemala here). Additionally, Mexico could gain/keep Clipperton Island.

 

[M79]

I think you have to start even earlier and avoid the outbreak of the Reform War in 1857 altogether.

Have Herrera run for reelection in 1850 and win a second term. Herrera was a moderate Federalist that most Conservatives could stomach. A second term gives Herrera the opportunity to bring fiscal stability to Mexico while avoiding the conservative coup in 1853 against Arista (Herrera's hotheaded successor), Santa Anna's return in 1853, and the outbreak of the Reform War over the Liberal Constitution in 1857.
However, we still run into a bit of trouble during the 1854 election, by this point Herrera's health was deteriorating (so he is unlikely to run for a third term) and the same goes for Mariano Arista (his most likely successor). If we have a moderate Conservative win you might have a peaceful transfer of power between the major factions for the first time since Independence, and it might keep either radical faction from "inviting" Santa Anna back to power.
Reforms to the 1824 Constitution are slowly introduced avoiding anything as radical as the Lerdo Law (which confiscated Church and Indigenous real estate) and a moderate Juarez Law (which eliminated ecclesiastical and military courts). And take it from there with investments in public works, schools, industry, trade, the navy, and hopefully political stability. Greater immigration from Southern Europe will also help significantly.

Without going crazy Mexico can still have some additional territory than OTL with this POD, by simply not selling the Mesilla/Gadsen territory and with more favorable settlements to its border disputes with British Honduras (Belize) and Guatemala in the southeast. With the latter two, Mexico can have the border with Belize at the Belize River and gain the Soconusco and Peten region from Guatemala (you'd really be screwing Guatemala here). Additionally, Mexico could gain/keep Clipperton Island.

Maximillian brings enough European credentials to ward off the creditors for a while, without him we may see more adventuring from France, Spain, and the UK in the 1860s/1870s. Worst case scenario may see London start to support the Yucatan or Republic of the Rio Grande/ a new Republic of Sonora et al.

 

[jycee]

Maximillian brings enough European credentials to ward off the creditors for a while, without him we may see more adventuring from France, Spain, and the UK in the 1860s/1870s. Worst case scenario may see London start to support the Yucatan or Republic of the Rio Grande/ a new Republic of Sonora et al.

I think you can easily take care of the UK by recognizing British Honduras and letting them expand further into Central America through the Miskito colony. Outside France, neither Spain nor the UK really tried any adventuring into Mexico; they both blockaded and demanded debt payment but went as far as to recognize either the Yucatan Republic or the Rio Grande Republic at the time much less the Republic of Sonora, which was unabashedly a private filibustering venture by William Walker and by no means a real independence movement. Furthermore, Britain had ample opportunity to expand their Honduras colony into the Chan Santa Cruz during the Caste War. The fact that neither Spain nor Britain acted on these opportunities, even though Mexico remained unstable through the 1850s it took the outbreak of the Reform War for France to intervene and try to place Max on the throne.
Taking this into consideration, I don't see why Mexico can't manage to ward off the creditors and if it manages to stabilize and starts paying off some debts by the mid-1850s. This gives Mexico an extra decade and a half to develop and catch up, but more importantly, it gives the country a legitimate government and not a European monarch disliked by the very party that placed him on the throne. It should be enough to have a guy like Herrera, and a few other moderates, build incremental change in Mexico while avoiding the disasters of the Reform War, the Revolution, and the 1960s-70s, and Mexico could be in a very good position by the present day.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Without going crazy Mexico can still have some additional territory than OTL with this POD, by simply not selling the Mesilla/Gadsen territory and with more favorable settlements to its border disputes with British Honduras (Belize) and Guatemala in the southeast. With the latter two, Mexico can have the border with Belize at the Belize River and gain the Soconusco and Peten region from Guatemala (you'd really be screwing Guatemala here). Additionally, Mexico could gain/keep Clipperton Island.

I thought the Soconusco was already a part of Mexico? In any case, my initial idea also revolved around a quicker and more decisive victory against the French invasion, but perhaps an earlier POD can help more what with being able to prevent the Gadsden Purchase (although that might be against the spirit of the OP, but I don't think Tucson is that important to America's OTL trajectory). Regardless, one of my ideas was for a more internationalist/militarily bolder Mexico that is more willing to intervene, and thus a way to gain more land from Guatemala and potentially put the other Central American countries under Mexico's thumb if not outright annex them would be to intervene in Guatemala's attempt to reunify Central America.

IOTL, Justo Rufino Barrios had dreams of creating another Federal Republic of Central America or something and apparently most states were willing to back him. El Salvador apparently backed out and asked Mexico for aid, and this is where Mexico solidified its hold on the Soconusco according to wikipedia. But Mexico did no more than that, and Barrios got himself killed leading an attack on a Salvadoran town. But what if he was more militarily successful? Say that El Salvador loses that battle and their president is forced to flee to Mexico. Mexico, sensing an opportunity, leads the counter-attack against Barrios, taking the Peten as part of the peace agreement and El Salvador either becomes willingly annexed or becomes a protectorate. From this point, the other Central American countries (minus Guatemala perhaps) likewise accept increased Mexican influence as a means to protect them from outside threats such as the United States or their predatory fruit companies.

 

[Sarthak]

Before the reform war I say a stable succession of power. After it I say Maximilian and Juarez teaming up.

 

[mial42]

I thought the Soconusco was already a part of Mexico? In any case, my initial idea also revolved around a quicker and more decisive victory against the French invasion, but perhaps an earlier POD can help more what with being able to prevent the Gadsden Purchase (although that might be against the spirit of the OP, but I don't think Tucson is that important to America's OTL trajectory). Regardless, one of my ideas was for a more internationalist/militarily bolder Mexico that is more willing to intervene, and thus a way to gain more land from Guatemala and potentially put the other Central American countries under Mexico's thumb if not outright annex them would be to intervene in Guatemala's attempt to reunify Central America.

IOTL, Justo Rufino Barrios had dreams of creating another Federal Republic of Central America or something and apparently most states were willing to back him. El Salvador apparently backed out and asked Mexico for aid, and this is where Mexico solidified its hold on the Soconusco according to wikipedia. But Mexico did no more than that, and Barrios got himself killed leading an attack on a Salvadoran town. But what if he was more militarily successful? Say that El Salvador loses that battle and their president is forced to flee to Mexico. Mexico, sensing an opportunity, leads the counter-attack against Barrios, taking the Peten as part of the peace agreement and El Salvador either becomes willingly annexed or becomes a protectorate. From this point, the other Central American countries (minus Guatemala perhaps) likewise accept increased Mexican influence as a means to protect them from outside threats such as the United States or their predatory fruit companies.

How would this develop Mexico? Annexing Central American republics will not make Mexico richer, let alone as wealthy as Canada or the US.

 

[Aghasverov]

Before the reform war I say a stable succession of power. After it I say Maximilian and Juarez teaming up.

Max as titular Emperor, Benito as PM or Chancellor... I like this idea

 

[Vahktang]

An intense clandestine war against their northern neighbors.
Supply weapons, equipment, against any separatist organizations, indigenous peoples or anti government assemblies.
Spain is always blamed because of American racism and ignorance.
Canada and United States become much lesser, Mexico stays about the same, they end up equal.

 

[Denliner]

How would Maximillian and Juarez even work together to create a constitutional monarchy? Once Maximilian does the Black Decree, any hope of saving the Second Empire seems lost.

 

[NAF]

An intense clandestine war against their northern neighbors.
Supply weapons, equipment, against any separatist organizations, indigenous peoples or anti government assemblies.
Spain is always blamed because of American racism and ignorance.
Canada and United States become much lesser, Mexico stays about the same, they end up equal.

The goal of this challenge is not to drag other countries down, but to raise Mexico up.

 

[Mister Mister]

How would this develop Mexico? Annexing Central American republics will not make Mexico richer, let alone as wealthy as Canada or the US.

Agreed. Central America is just a drain on Mexico. If anything, Mexico should give more native territory to Guatemala, like in Chiapas.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

An intense clandestine war against their northern neighbors.
Supply weapons, equipment, against any separatist organizations, indigenous peoples or anti government assemblies.
Spain is always blamed because of American racism and ignorance.
Canada and United States become much lesser, Mexico stays about the same, they end up equal.

Sounds highly unrealistic.

 

[Roland Traveler]

I thought the Soconusco was already a part of Mexico? In any case, my initial idea also revolved around a quicker and more decisive victory against the French invasion, but perhaps an earlier POD can help more what with being able to prevent the Gadsden Purchase (although that might be against the spirit of the OP, but I don't think Tucson is that important to America's OTL trajectory). Regardless, one of my ideas was for a more internationalist/militarily bolder Mexico that is more willing to intervene, and thus a way to gain more land from Guatemala and potentially put the other Central American countries under Mexico's thumb if not outright annex them would be to intervene in Guatemala's attempt to reunify Central America.

IOTL, Justo Rufino Barrios had dreams of creating another Federal Republic of Central America or something and apparently most states were willing to back him. El Salvador apparently backed out and asked Mexico for aid, and this is where Mexico solidified its hold on the Soconusco according to wikipedia. But Mexico did no more than that, and Barrios got himself killed leading an attack on a Salvadoran town. But what if he was more militarily successful? Say that El Salvador loses that battle and their president is forced to flee to Mexico. Mexico, sensing an opportunity, leads the counter-attack against Barrios, taking the Peten as part of the peace agreement and El Salvador either becomes willingly annexed or becomes a protectorate. From this point, the other Central American countries (minus Guatemala perhaps) likewise accept increased Mexican influence as a means to protect them from outside threats such as the United States or their predatory fruit companies.

Would keeping Mesilla even help Mexico? As far as I’m aware, the region is mainly desert who’s big draw was a railway that didn’t even end up being initially built there. Considering the resources tied down by continued Apache actions in the region, the utter lack of population or exploitable resources, and Southern desire of it for the railroad, selling it off seems like a net benefit. Maybe some shrewd diplomacy or victories against the Apache could convince the US to pay more for the region. If the purchase happens under a government other than Santa Anna that manages to get the US to formally and definitively recognize Mexican sovereignty, the money could be invested into more beneficial projects than the military.

Besides that, definitely find a way to get rid of the military dictatorships and chronic instability while implementing post-Revolution reforms ASAP. Mexico’s biggest problem (in terms of economic prosperity) is that in the 1800s it was sparsely populated and lacking in stability. Managing to solidify a somewhat competent government and getting the population growing would give Mexico a lot more economic potential. Personally I don’t have enough knowledge on Mexico in the time period to pinpoint who, when, and where, but I’m sure you could find it somewhere.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

How would this develop Mexico? Annexing Central American republics will not make Mexico richer, let alone as wealthy as Canada or the US.

Admittedly I'm not super invested in my own idea and I'm just throwing stuff at a wall at this point, but I was leaning more towards "protectorates with favorable trade deals that uniquely benefit Mexico somehow" rather than military conquest or even necessarily political annexation. There are valuable resources in at least some of these countries though and perhaps with Mexico acting in the role of a benevolent protector as opposed to predatory corporate sponsor Central America could be better developed and also more stable than IOTL. Also, there's the batty idea of a Nicaragua Canal that Mexico could possibly control, but that's kind of a long shot I guess.

 

[M79]

Agreed. Central America is just a drain on Mexico. If anything, Mexico should give more native territory to Guatemala, like in Chiapas.

Even with the chance that in doing so Mexico could open a Nicaragua Canal and/or coordinate the economies of Central America via common infrastructure while avoiding their devastating civil conflicts and fates as literal banana republics?