AHC: With a POD after 1815, make Italy a major power

In OTL, the weak Italy state always meant the country was clearly second rate compared to France, Germany, Russia etc. The challenge is to have them a power on a similar sort of level as at least the Habsurg Monarchy.
 
Given that the Italians defeated A-H in WW1 (obviously not alone, but they outlasted Russia) it's not very fair to say that they were 'second rate' compared to them. They certainly did a lot better than France in WW2 as well. Nevertheless it's not too hard to make Italy relatively stronger than OTL. An A-H collapse in 1848 could accelerate Italian unification quite a bit, and give them more of an opportunity to acquire colonies/expand their influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Italian and German strategic interests align nicely absent A-H, a possible alliance between the two could net Italy any and all of its claims on France, as well as territories like Tunisia. The biggest one as always though is to prevent any war like WW1, OTL Italy was literally less than two years away from having by far the most powerful navy in the Med; the war skewed this development. Lots of things really, Italy lacks certain natural resources but otherwise has plenty of potential as a European Great Power.
 
As a followup I suppose retaining Savoy could be quite helpful, if only for the coal there. Italy had very limited coal reserves of it's own, always a bottleneck. I haven't read much Italian economic history in a while, but my understanding is that a big part of the problem is that Italy came quite late to the game. So like before an earlier unification, with somewhat greater access to resources, could create the synergy needed to push Italy up to Great Power status a decade or two before it did OTL.

The other big way to do this is to nerf the other European states. So for a *very* rough sketch, say Italy does manage to do a bit better in the 19th century, well enough that it satisfies its major claims on both France and Austria. Then comes a major European war with roughly the same lineup as OTL's WW1, while Italy remains neutral. Germany&Friends win, with France ending up neutered while Russia loses some border territories like Poland but does not collapse like in OTL. Britain gets a white peace. Italy generally makes some money during the war, though not as much as one might think given that even a stronger Italy during the early 20th century will still be very dependent on a global trade network that has been terribly disrupted. Nevertheless Italy does ok, and most importantly is entirely undamaged during the war. Post-war it has by a good margin the most powerful fleet in the Mediterranean.

To continue the OTL resemblance, let's say there's a rematch 20 years later. In the mean time Germany has been enjoying European hegemony but nevertheless Britain and Russia with a weakened France present a major threat. Russia in particular has industrialised, and for arguments sake is some sort of reformed Tsarist thing that resembles OTL's 1914 Kaiserriech in its political makeup i.e. a bit democratic with lots of power still remaining in the hands of the monarch. Queue 'WW2', Germany manages to do very well in the west knocking out France but is involved in a terribly bloody conflict in the east which appears intractable. To try and finish affairs in the west it attempts to invade Britain, with further buildup between the wars Germany has a moderate naval advantage over the UK and manages to knock out the Royal Navy and lands in South East England. It is unable to defeat the British quickly however, creating a bloody and destructive conflict that ruins large parts of the country's most urbanised region. Meanwhile Russia has begun to gain ground in the east, and has begun invading Germany proper. Berlin falls, perhaps as much as the entirely of OTL East Germany/lost Eastern German territories are overrun. At this point Italy, not wanting to live under a Russian dominated Europe, intervenes on the German side while ensuring that Britain is given a white peace. After 6-12 months of fighting the exhausted Russians retreat from a ruined Germany, and for good measure have some political upheavals to keep them busy.

So here we have a situation in which all the major European powers have pretty much wrecked themselves except for Italy, which can claim the role of 'saviour of Europe' from the Russians. None of the European states can claim continental hegemony in any sense whatsoever, and for fun Italy can also be the most liberal/democratic of the bunch.

A very very rough sketch, probably pushing the OTL-allegory a bit too hard in places, but overall the point is that in 20th century Europe just staying out of the destructive wars is a sure fire way to improve one's overall position, so long as none of the fighting countries can claim the whole pie. The US did this of course, going from first among equals to lonely at the top thanks to all its rivals ruining each other. Italy could never be the US, but it could certainly do a smaller version of this. So probably could Britain or Russia, depending on the scenario.
 
Neutrality in WW2 with retention of Libya that gains a majority population of Italian colonists. A rational Mussolin not messing so badly with the economy and military.

Those far from guarantee Italy Major Power status, but they'd sure help.
 
Italy discovers Libyan oil around 1917. Mussolini stays out of Ethiopia. Italy has huge oil production going by 1940 and a majority in Libya. Italy accepts Britain/Frances offer of shares in Suez, annexation of Tunisia, and concessions in Malta in exchange for neutrality. After fall of France, Italy sells heavily to both sides and gets a border adjustment with Yugoslavia. In mid 44 Italy joins the allies in exchange for Italy getting gains in Yugoslavia recognized, Austria as a postwar occupation zone, and the ability to purchase Malta from Britain. Italy takes Austria and gets a seat at how peace table at relatively low cost. By the end of 45 Italy is the richest of the major powers in Europe per capita, is the strongest country in Western Europe, and gets a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Post war Italy gets Marshall Aid, enters NATO, and begins opening up its economy to international trade and moving away from economic isolation that Mussolini pushed. This unleashes an economic boom, which in turn prevents as many Italians from moving to the America's. In 53 Italy gets its first nuke. It also establishes a decent majority in Tunisia and an overwhelming majority Libya. Italy stands up to the Soviets in the Suez Crisis as Mussolini's final major act, and remarkably gets the Soviets to backdown.

Mussolini dies in the early 60s. Italy transitions to Democracy over the decade before settling into the role of a normal Western Great Power. By the present Italy has a population of 75 million and a GDP per capita of $55,000, giving them Europe's largest economy. They spend a solid 3% of their GDP on their military budget, giving them 120 billion dollars a year to spend roughly, making them much stronger than Britain or France. With Suez, Malta, and Djibouti, they control the Eastern Med and Red Sea. Throw in nukes, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and world renowned culture, and they are the the number three or four power by the present ITTL.
 
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