AHC/WI: Zhili Clique Unifies China

There's seems to have been a brief window in the early 1920s during the Zhili-Fengtian where the Zhili Clique nearly gained victory uniting China.

But how could they have won?

And what if they won? What would the 'Nanjing Decade' look like under Zhili Clique rule? What direction would they want to take the country in? What would it look like?
 
It's important to understand how much control you want the Zhili Clique to have. The Kuomintang only effectively had control of central China along the Yangtze - Yangtze Delta and Wuhan areas. They lost control of Canton after 1929, and did not bring it back under their control until late 1936. They only established a modicum of control over Guiyang and Sichuan after the Long March in 1934. The rest of China was never really under their control, although the warlords who did rule their agreed to a facade of KMT rule. So the Nanking Decade was nevertheless a struggle for Chiang to continue his efforts to unite the country under a real government (besides combating the Communists and fighting the Central Plains War, Chiang also had to maneuver against the other warlords).

If we take a victory for Zhili in the Second Zhili-Fengtian War, I assume you mean the Zhili will rule over a much greater area of China. Zhili control northern China south of the Great Wall. They then add Manchuria (or at least the southern part of it) after defeating the Fengtian Clique. They then move south and take the provinces around Yangtze River. At that point do they march south against the KMT in Canton (KMT was at this time still allied to the Communists)? If so, they will control everything that the KMT did plus north China and Manchuria. I assume that much of the right wing of the KMT will agree to join the Beiyang government in return for certain concessions. Some of the more revolutionary types may head into exile in the hopes to continuing the KMT "Republic of China", but they probably return to China after a few years. The Communists are smashed and go underground.

This would give the Zhili Clique a much larger tax base than the Nationalists had, and they'd have far fewer opponents of much less strength. They'd also have "united" China a few years earlier than Chiang. So they'd have a much bigger head start. Also, they'd have quicker international legitimacy since the Zhili Clique controls the Beiyang government which is the government already diplomatically recognized by the international community. The Communists will also be less well represented since they would not have accompanied Chiang Kai Shek on his Northern Expedition in 1926-1927, and there will not be the disruption in governance caused by the subsequent wars. Communist activity will likely be limited to the Canton area.

The real power of the Zhili Clique is held by Wu Peifu. He has a protege in Sun Chuanfang. Cao Kun is the figurehead President. The government will be right wing and anti-Japanese. That government will attempt to modernize and strengthen China so that it can deal with the great powers as an equal.

I assume the Zhili Clique will act much like Chiang Kai Shek did, although they'll be far more successful at it given their greater size and earlier control. They will have substantially greater tax base. They will also be able to engage in military reform at a quicker pace (eliminating ghost soldiers on the payroll) because they won't need to fear a warlord rebelling.

Their first real crisis will come in early thirties when the Great Depression destabilizes Japan, and the Kwantung Army decides to do its own thing. However, China ITTL will be in a very different situation than IOTL. A central Chinese government will have much greater control in Manchuria. I also believe it will have a more effective central army since reforms will have been enacted. Likely if the Kwantung Army attacks, it can win local victory, but at a very high cost. It is possible the leaders of the Kwantung Army will not choose to invade at all given the higher risks.

This is all based that the Zhili Clique really can unite much of China in 1924-1925. Everything after that is all based on the much larger tax base and less powerful domestic adversaries than Chiang had to deal with from 1927 on.
 
Would the Kwantung Army even invade in this scenario? I thought the only reason they did was due to the tenuous state of China coupled with the fact that Zhang Zuolin played ball with the Japanese up until he decided to turn his back on them leading to Japanese intervention.
 
It's important to understand how much control you want the Zhili Clique to have. The Kuomintang only effectively had control of central China along the Yangtze - Yangtze Delta and Wuhan areas. They lost control of Canton after 1929, and did not bring it back under their control until late 1936. They only established a modicum of control over Guiyang and Sichuan after the Long March in 1934. The rest of China was never really under their control, although the warlords who did rule their agreed to a facade of KMT rule. So the Nanking Decade was nevertheless a struggle for Chiang to continue his efforts to unite the country under a real government (besides combating the Communists and fighting the Central Plains War, Chiang also had to maneuver against the other warlords).

If we take a victory for Zhili in the Second Zhili-Fengtian War, I assume you mean the Zhili will rule over a much greater area of China. Zhili control northern China south of the Great Wall. They then add Manchuria (or at least the southern part of it) after defeating the Fengtian Clique. They then move south and take the provinces around Yangtze River. At that point do they march south against the KMT in Canton (KMT was at this time still allied to the Communists)? If so, they will control everything that the KMT did plus north China and Manchuria. I assume that much of the right wing of the KMT will agree to join the Beiyang government in return for certain concessions. Some of the more revolutionary types may head into exile in the hopes to continuing the KMT "Republic of China", but they probably return to China after a few years. The Communists are smashed and go underground.

This would give the Zhili Clique a much larger tax base than the Nationalists had, and they'd have far fewer opponents of much less strength. They'd also have "united" China a few years earlier than Chiang. So they'd have a much bigger head start. Also, they'd have quicker international legitimacy since the Zhili Clique controls the Beiyang government which is the government already diplomatically recognized by the international community. The Communists will also be less well represented since they would not have accompanied Chiang Kai Shek on his Northern Expedition in 1926-1927, and there will not be the disruption in governance caused by the subsequent wars. Communist activity will likely be limited to the Canton area.

The real power of the Zhili Clique is held by Wu Peifu. He has a protege in Sun Chuanfang. Cao Kun is the figurehead President. The government will be right wing and anti-Japanese. That government will attempt to modernize and strengthen China so that it can deal with the great powers as an equal.

I assume the Zhili Clique will act much like Chiang Kai Shek did, although they'll be far more successful at it given their greater size and earlier control. They will have substantially greater tax base. They will also be able to engage in military reform at a quicker pace (eliminating ghost soldiers on the payroll) because they won't need to fear a warlord rebelling.

Their first real crisis will come in early thirties when the Great Depression destabilizes Japan, and the Kwantung Army decides to do its own thing. However, China ITTL will be in a very different situation than IOTL. A central Chinese government will have much greater control in Manchuria. I also believe it will have a more effective central army since reforms will have been enacted. Likely if the Kwantung Army attacks, it can win local victory, but at a very high cost. It is possible the leaders of the Kwantung Army will not choose to invade at all given the higher risks.

This is all based that the Zhili Clique really can unite much of China in 1924-1925. Everything after that is all based on the much larger tax base and less powerful domestic adversaries than Chiang had to deal with from 1927 on.

I'd assume that by 1928 the Zhili Clique will be in control of most of China, lower Manchuria, Peking, Shanghai, Canton...resistance may carry on on the central plains, mountains, and steppe several years, but by 1938, China would be united.

They would industrialize and modernize earlier, prompting an earlier, more stable, and probably better 'Nanjing Decade' analogue. This means that Japan won't be able to unleash a jingoistic rampage on them, since IOTL 1937 was now or never, the Chinese were strengthening their army and soon they would be unbeatable. ITTL Zhili Clique China is going to be ready, and will be far too formidable of an opponent.

So what Japan does in this scenario is open to question.

Internal policy will be more conservative, Wu Peifu will carry out some neo-Confucian cultural policies. And he will be pro-Anglo-American instead of neutralist like the KMT, so the Soviets won't be able to back the KMT or CCP, Zhili Clique China will resist them staunchly.

But what will economic policies? and how prevalent, or problematic, would corruption be?

Would the Kwantung Army even invade in this scenario? I thought the only reason they did was due to the tenuous state of China coupled with the fact that Zhang Zuolin played ball with the Japanese up until he decided to turn his back on them leading to Japanese intervention.

Yeah I doubt it, China is this scenario seems way too powerful to be a tempting, or vulnerable, target.
 
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