AHC/WI Western Europe has the same dying demographics as Japan.

How could the demographic winter come early for Europe so that in present day their population was look like or worst than Japan's ageing one, how would that effect the economy and the EU's attitude to immigration.

Info population pyramid of western Europe as off 2015 the challenge is to get Males and females in age groups 20-24 and under to make up about 2% of the total population http://populationpyramid.net/western-europe/2015/
 
How could the demographic winter come early for Europe so that in present day their population was look like or worst than Japan's ageing one, how would that effect the economy and the EU's attitude to immigration.

Info population pyramid of western Europe as off 2015 the challenge is to get Males and females in age groups 20-24 and under to make up about 2% of the total population http://populationpyramid.net/western-europe/2015/

Most European countries seem to be pretty close to Japan regarding demographics. Germany and Italy leading.
 
They're basically same. If there weren't a flow of immigrants from ex-Communist countries they'd have even more similar statistics to that of Japan.
 

tenthring

Banned
There is a strong correlation between population density/urbanization and lower fertility. While this is an issue I find it much less of an issue with Japan, lord knows they could use some extra space over there.

The primary problem seems to be that smart liberal/secular women don't have many kids. Smart conservative/religious women still do. This is true even in places like Scandinavia or France which have higher overall TFRs.

The primary culprit seems to be overestimating how long one can wait before having to settle down and have kids. Lots of women state they desire 2-3 children, but a large enough % end up either alone or marrying after they can have children. You've got to find a way to lower age of marriage amongst the highly educated.

Artificial fertility methods don't seem to be that big a help (the number of frozen eggs that ever get used is very small). Some technocratic methods help a little, but failures of strong government incentives in places like Singapore and Germany show the limits. One trick the Nordics figured out is paying people to have children in rapid succession (within X months) which turns a lot of one child families into two child families because it get mothers in their 30s to buckle down and have that extra kid while they still can. They also made the payment higher based on the earnings of the mother.

Still, I think the solution is a bit long term but inevitable. There is currently a bias towards liberalism/secularism as you go up in IQ, but when you combine the two it leads to low fertility no matter what you do. Since political and religious disposition is somewhat heritable I expect this to shift over time due to differential fertility. In the future the intelligent will be socially and culturally different then they are today, and they will probably match the 2.0 TFR of the lower classes (OECD, excluding global).
 
Um.

TFR rates for France and the UK are about 2.01 and 1.9, respectively. Japan is 1.4. This is not about the same.
 
I did not mention France. France, Britain, Ireland and Poland are the exceptions. Big exxceptions but exceptions however among 28 EU members.
 
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?mode=view&code=tsdde220

The EU as a whole isn't that far off the rate of Japan of 1.4, but it does vary by region. The "old core" - France, the low countries, United Kingdom (and Ireland) - and Scandinavia, are pretty all right. Belgium 1.75, France 1.99, United Kingdom 1.83, Netherlands 1.68, Denmark 1.67, Sweden 1.89, Norway 1.78, Finland 1.75, Iceland 1.93, Ireland 1.96. True some of the numbers are low, Denmark and Netherlands in particular, but they're not ultra-low like Portugal/Spain/Italy/Germany/much of Eastern Europe.

The only fully developed country (except maybe for Switzerland) in Europe which has really low total fertility is Germany, but that might partially be due to the Eastern half of their country having its various social problems. Apparently it is partially due to the Germans having trouble integrating women into the work force (Ie. they work, but they can't work and have children) due to various cultural conceptions, and poor policy making in such regard, so just have the rest of Western Europe be less effective in the same policies. And don't have the UK spread that magic fairy dust that somehow allows them to have a 1.83 fertility rate for no apparent reason.

Yes, and this also the case for most of eastern Europe (except Poland), Spain and Portugal.

Poland is 1.29 TFR. They're one of the lowest
 
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