AHC/WI - West Germany (later reunified Germany) experiences a UK-style form of Declinism

This thread was inspired by the following link. - https://academic.oup.com/tcbh/article-abstract/20/2/227/1674132

In real-life it seems Declinism, a general malaise and lack of investment (in sports, industries, etc) and the habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (whether via incompetence, internal subversives, etc) has become a recurrent theme in recent British history.

To the point where it is a regular national pastime for a largely adversarial UK media bashing their own industries (into either failing or falling into foreign ownership), national infrastructure and national teams in sports, whilst at the same time reminiscing or "mock reminiscing" about past success (e.g. 1966 World Cup, etc) and adopting a "Grass is always Greener on the other side" attitude.

Germany (initially West Germany) on the other hand managed to bounce back from devastation in the aftermath of WW2 experiencing success in both sports (Football / Soccer is one example that stands out) and industries such as high-speed trains (e.g. Intercity-Express / ICE) and automobiles (the latter remaining under domestic ownership), quickly surpassing the UK all without seemingly experiencing this malaise or Declinism let alone an oikophobic media readily recommending non-domestic alternatives, etc.

In a scenario where WW1 and WW2 still happen as in OTL yet with an earlier PODs for the changes involved, what would it take to largely swap the fortunes of the UK and Germany with regards to post-war Declinism / general malaise (where the 1954 World Cup becomes ATL Germany's 1966 yet the German Car industries still largely manages to succeed in the face of adversity) without simply resorting to the Morgenthau Plan?

Obviously the UK would still have to recognize the reality it is no longer an Empire in such a scenario, the challenge though is for the UK to experience a similar level of success to OTL Germany in the aftermath of WW2 up to the present day in terms of infrastructure, industries and sports without experiencing the OTL Declinism and general malaise.
 
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The problem is that British malaise build on some factors which wasn't presence in Germany.

A obsolete industrial base: the British avoided the destruction of their industrial base and at the same time they was the earliest industrialiser. Germany pretty much had to restart from scratch, which meant that they avoided that problem.

Loss of their colonial possessions: the British lost their captured captured markets, while Germany with it small colonial empire had been much more dependent on being competitive.

Different cultures: the Germans are perfectionists, yes it may sound like a cliche, but there's a reason why German products have the reputation they have. This build on a long production tradition.

Politics: German politics build on consensus and cooperation, while British politics build on the winners crushing their enemies and hearing the lamentation of their women. This means that German government can't ignore long term structural problems, as UK was able to (I heard this great interview with Lord Adonis, where he brought up six problems made worse by the British government not dealing with it in time).

Different unions: German unions have more in common with Scandinavian unions than British ones, the result are widespread Union membership and a focus on cooperation instead of conflict.

In short it's really hard to blame UK for the problem they got after WWII, but that also means they're hard to transfer to elsewhere.
 
Although it's hard to remember now, Germany was seen as the "sick man of Europe" from the 1990s through the mid-2000s. Large deficits, stubbornly high unemployment, and slow growth relative to the rest of Europe. The labor reforms of the second Schroeder government helped as did the weakness in the Eurozone; with the Euro valued lower than the Deutschemark would have been, Germany benefited from an export boom and high internal savings.

Maybe if you can prevent these things from happening you'd get Germany still struggling. Whether that gets you to out-and-out declinism is a different Q.
 
Although it's hard to remember now, Germany was seen as the "sick man of Europe" from the 1990s through the mid-2000s. Large deficits, stubbornly high unemployment, and slow growth relative to the rest of Europe. The labor reforms of the second Schroeder government helped as did the weakness in the Eurozone; with the Euro valued lower than the Deutschemark would have been, Germany benefited from an export boom and high internal savings.

Maybe if you can prevent these things from happening you'd get Germany still struggling. Whether that gets you to out-and-out declinism is a different Q.

I remember it (we got a lot of German guest workers in those years), but it was never really similar to what UK was going through, as it was more limited, and even without the Hartz Reforms, it was unlikely to continue (but Germany wouldn't have jumped back as they did, it would have gone far slower). But alone the fact that Germany was able to grow so fast after a few reforms,pretty much tells us it was less serious than what happened in UK.
 
If Ludwig Erhard doesn't become finance minister in the Western occupation zone, the Wirtschaftswunder may be delayed or dulled.

If an alternate German government handled the reunification process in an extremely incompetent manner there may be a period of decline in Germany's relative economic weight in Europe.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
A obsolete industrial base: the British avoided the destruction of their industrial base and at the same time they was the earliest industrialiser. Germany pretty much had to restart from scratch, which meant that they avoided that problem
Post ww2, Germany actually reformed towards a more free-market economy. Meanwhile, British economic policies had been increasingly statist and even borderline socialist (Labour's heavy emphasis on nationalization), but unlike in France or Japan, British government intervention was always a failure. Who can forget British Leyland.
 

elkarlo

Banned
The problem is that British malaise build on some factors which wasn't presence in Germany.

A obsolete industrial base: the British avoided the destruction of their industrial base and at the same time they was the earliest industrialiser. Germany pretty much had to restart from scratch, which meant that they avoided that problem.

Loss of their colonial possessions: the British lost their captured captured markets, while Germany with it small colonial empire had been much more dependent on being competitive.

Different cultures: the Germans are perfectionists, yes it may sound like a cliche, but there's a reason why German products have the reputation they have. This build on a long production tradition.

Politics: German politics build on consensus and cooperation, while British politics build on the winners crushing their enemies and hearing the lamentation of their women. This means that German government can't ignore long term structural problems, as UK was able to (I heard this great interview with Lord Adonis, where he brought up six problems made worse by the British government not dealing with it in time).

Different unions: German unions have more in common with Scandinavian unions than British ones, the result are widespread Union membership and a focus on cooperation instead of conflict.

In short it's really hard to blame UK for the problem they got after WWII, but that also means they're hard to transfer to elsewhere.
Add in that British companies tend to sell out to buyouts, preventing the UK from enjoying big business HQs. Yes there are exceptions like Tesco and all, but so many British companies seem to sell out and take the cash, rather than take the chance and grow
 
So in the UK's case, to forestall their OTL Declinist periods would entail similar steps to the More Solvent / Less Bankrupt Post-War UK thread with a POD of 1870 onwards - beginning with the Second Industrial Revolution (helping to realise various infrastructure projects along the way) up to improved performances during WW1/WW2 and preparation during the interwar years followed by Churchill defeating Attlee (potentially laying the groundwork for a more free-market economy and more Marshall Plan aid to complement a more solvent coffers) as one example?

Improving UK performance in the World Cup, Cricket and other sports where they have declined in OTL is another matter, though the above should make it easier for UK industry to remain competitive allowing for successful automobile, motorcycle and rail (via a realised APT, etc) industries.

As for Germany was envisioning the following Declinist post-war low point scenario as a rough example:

Sports:
  • 1954 World Cup becomes Germany's 1966

Industry:

- Automotive -
  • GM does not revive Opel along with Ford for Ford of Germany in the post-war era as was allegedly the case with the former.
  • Volkswagen falters early on (with another company appropriating tooling / designs as war reparations in the immediate post-war period) or up to the late-60s / early-70s (thanks an alternate Ralph Nader, a improved trouble-free Corvair and reluctance to ditch the rear-engine layout or Beetle-based mechanicals) with Mercedes acquiring Wolfsburg to build commercial vehicles
  • BMW owned by Mercedes from around 1959-1960 and either discontinued, merged with Auto-Union (who were also owned by Mercedes at the time) or occupying the mid/low-end segment. Inspired by OTL
  • Mercedes itself remains part of Chrysler.
  • NSU and Auto-Union eventually merge (or Mercedes sells off the latter to NSU) to form an ATL smaller Audi (essentially producing Audi-badged versions of OTL FWD Volkswagens) that may or may not be swallowed up by Mercedes (or Porsche) and slot below or merged with BMW or become part of some European-wide analogue of British Leyland aka Euro Motors.
  • Porsche itself struggling along up to the present day by trying to unsuccessfully expand and encroach on Volkswagen's former territory, after losing out to Mercedes for control over Wolfsburg
  • Borgward either falls like in OTL or gets acquired by Chrysler and merged with Simca (possibly followed by Peugeot).
  • Japanese and other foreign carmakers either acquire carmakers / factories in West or reunified Germany or build new factories.

Infrastructure:
  • Intercity-Express is either butterflied away or significantly delayed by a few decades with trains provided by another country (akin to Crossrail).

Politically the ATL German Declinism would probably be somewhat masked by Germany's involvement in the EEC, until the post-cold war era where the EEC either never becomes the EU (and/or dissolves) or Germany ends up unable to implement the reforms of the second Schroeder government and remains the sick man of Europe with French-like Declinist books and articles exploring the falling of Germany becoming a booming industry.
 
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Post ww2, Germany actually reformed towards a more free-market economy. Meanwhile, British economic policies had been increasingly statist and even borderline socialist (Labour's heavy emphasis on nationalization), but unlike in France or Japan, British government intervention was always a failure. Who can forget British Leyland.
Ludwig Erhard is one of the most underrated economic liberals of the last century. He abolished wage and price controls to end the hyperinflation that had been plaguing the West German occupation zone, but he could only do it through a Sunday radio announcement when the allied offices were closed. He went against the consensus of all of Eisenhower's advisors, and technically didn't even have the authority to make the announcement.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Add in that British companies tend to sell out to buyouts, preventing the UK from enjoying big business HQs. Yes there are exceptions like Tesco and all, but so many British companies seem to sell out and take the cash, rather than take the chance and grow
I think German financial system is more bank-based, and banks tend to be more risk-averse and long-term oriented than stock markets. Since their best interest is to ensure their borrowers' credit worthiness, they naturally look beyond quarterly profit. Creditor protection has a bigger role in German corporate governance.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Different unions: German unions have more in common with Scandinavian unions than British ones, the result are widespread Union membership and a focus on cooperation instead of conflict
POD around early 1920s: have the Liberals winning general election.
 
Not sure whether it is possible for ATL German Unions to resemble OTL British Unions, especially given West Germany might be more proactive in cracking down on what they'd likely view as subversives from East Germany.

That said it would be fascinating to see German analogues of Derek "Red Robbo" Robinson and Arthur Scargill, along with possibly Tony Benn (at least in terms of wanting to merge and nationalize various industries into vast combines).
 
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