AHC/WI: USA invaded Republic of Georgia as part of the “War on Terror”?

OTL there have been some accusations levelled against Georgia (the one in the Caucasus mountains, not the one in the Dixie), claiming the nation is sheltering Islamic terrorists. To Westerners, this might seem like a strange claim given that Georgia is a predominantly Christian country (& home to one of the oldest branches of the Christian religion at that) and has warm relations with the West. Since the accusations are predominantly coming from Russia it can be easy to dismiss them for some people as a byproduct of the bad relations between Georgia and Russia.

But if one bothers to look deeper, one can learn that Georgia is home to the Pankisi Gorge — a valley region on the Russia-Georgia border populated by the Islamic Kist people. The Kist are essentially Chechens who live in Georgia (as an example, the late infamous 2nd in command of the Islamic State, Abu Omar al-Shishani, often reported as simply a “Chechen” by Western media was actually a Kist Georgian national and a former sergeant in the Georgian military who saw action during the 2008 Georgia-Russia War) and as such have both participated in and were impacted by the Chechen Conflict.

According to this 2002 Times article with USA’s help Georgian authorities arrested over a dozen al-Qaeda-linked Arab militants operating in Pankisi Gorge; not only were they conducting jihad against Russians in Chechnya but they were also planning attacks on Western targets.

The Times article goes on to say that the foreign terrorists in Georgia were “protected by high-ranking and corrupt officials” who were then purged. Ten years later in 2012, during the presidency of the “anti-corruption” crusader Mikheil Saakashvili evidence was uncovered of a Georgian government plan to arm, train and supply Chechen rebels before sending them to Russia (see page 235 of this report by the Public Defender of Georgia).

So, now we get to the AHC/WI scenario: What if sometime post-9-11 Washington decides (rightly or wrongly) that it isn’t just a few “high-ranking and corrupt officials” in Georgia that are cozy with Islamic terrorism and the whole country needs regime-change?

How would the war go? Would there be a strong post-invasion insurgency? Georgia does have a favourable mountainous terrain for this.

Would the post-war reconstruction and nation-building go better or worse for US than it did in Iraq and Afghanistan? What about the American culture back home? Would the impact of it be different on America than the Iraq/Afghanistan invasion? Would, for example, more Georgian food restaurants be opened in US similar to how there was a boom of Tiki restaurants post WW2?

How would surrounding nations like Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia react? At the time Russia had peacekeepers stationed in Abkhazia (& maybe South Ossetia too) — I don’t think US would invade without talking with Moscow first. Would Abkhazia & SO get earlier & wider recognition of their declared independence? Or maybe Russia and USA divide Georgia between two occupation zones similar to post-WW2 Korea?

How would this impact other continuing conflicts in the region like the one between Armenia & Azerbaijan?
 
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This just forces Georgia back into the Russian sphere, as the idea of forcing a regime change would not sit well with the Georgians. We've seen how well it's done in Iraq and Afghanistan, and there the people actively hated the regimes in power.

It'll also run into fierce Russian opposition in the UN, which would regard the Caucasus Mountains as "their territory". American meddling there would be received very poorly, and while Moscow won't charge in to attack, it'll definitely do all it can to sabotage the American effort to put in a new government.
 
I think it would be a definite No-go. I don't want to get to currently political.

But Georgia was seen as a threat to Russia because they were beginning to allign themselves with NATO and so by extension the USA. Heck in those articles you could see that Georgians were willing to help anybody who hated the Russians, but as soon as it began to look bad for them, and threatened their relations with the USA, they were arressted and purged.

The USA won't currently intervene in the Ukranian conflict overtly due to the threat of escalation. I believe that this would be an even bigger threat to the Russians if they have USA forces and Russian forces within shooting distance of each other.
 
This just forces Georgia back into the Russian sphere, as the idea of forcing a regime change would not sit well with the Georgians. We've seen how well it's done in Iraq and Afghanistan, and there the people actively hated the regimes in power.
Georgia was the site of one of the 1st “Coloured Revolutions” back in 2003. While I’m not going to open the can of worms on whether such movements represent “people’s will” it does show there were elements in Georgian society hostile to the Tbilisi government that the invading force could try to woo.
But Georgia was seen as a threat to Russia because they were beginning to allign themselves with NATO and so by extension the USA.
IIRC Georgia’s “Western political course” was mostly a post-2003 thing.
It'll also run into fierce Russian opposition in the UN, which would regard the Caucasus Mountains as "their territory". American meddling there would be received very poorly, and while Moscow won't charge in to attack, it'll definitely do all it can to sabotage the American effort to put in a new government.
While I agree that Moscow would likely be opposed to US forces carrying out military operations on its doorstep (hence why I suggest 2 occupation zones as a possible outcome) there are some things to consider:

1) Islamic radical pose a threat to both Russia and USA. Getting rid of a haven for these groups would be mutually beneficial.

2) Relations between Russia and USA were not as bad in early 2000s as they are now. There were those pushing for closer military cooperation between the two nations. Eg.: Admiral Vladimir Masorin, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy from 2005 to 2007:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Masorin
On August 24, 2007, Masorin became the first Russian recipient of the Legion of Merit (Commander) from the United States. His award was conferred by U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Michael Mullen, for meritorious conduct to increase cooperation and interoperability with the U.S. Navy and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from September 2005 to August 2007. Under his leadership the Russian Federation's navyparticipated in Active Endeavor, a NATO maritime counter-terrorism operation in the Mediterranean Sea. He consistently advocated continued Russian participation in the joint and combined military exercises including BALTOPS, Northern Eagle FRUKUS and Pacific Eagle.

His visit to Washington, D.C. during which he received the Legion of Merit was first official visit of a Russian Federation Navy Commander-in-Chief in eleven years. His predecessors as Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief previously making official visits to Washington were Fleet Admirals Vladimir Chernavin and Felix Gromov.
The USA won't currently intervene in the Ukranian conflict overtly due to the threat of escalation. I believe that this would be an even bigger threat to the Russians if they have USA forces and Russian forces within shooting distance of each other.
OTL, you have Russian and US forces “within shooting distance of each other” in Syria. Yet both sides are currently continuing their deployment and have deescalation lines of communication open.

P.S.: here is another interesting question — what would the US due if it captures the town of Gori?

https://www.calvertjournal.com/articles/show/5339/stalin-museum-georgia-gori
OZDDJEEALUYEAJM6HVQA7AA2B4.jpg

bigstalin.jpg
 
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Georgia was the site of one of the 1st “Coloured Revolutions” back in 2003. While I’m not going to open the can of worms on whether such movements represent “people’s will” it does show there were elements in Georgian society hostile to the Tbilisi government that the invading force could try to woo.
Entirely plausible, then, but those are rarely a surefire thing. But if their support is a matter of political debate, then I'll concede the point and move on.
While I agree that Moscow would likely be opposed to US forces carrying out military operations on its doorstep (hence why I suggest 2 occupation zones as a possible outcome) there are some things to consider:

1) Islamic radical pose a threat to both Russia and USA. Getting rid of a haven for these groups would be mutually beneficial.

2) Relations between Russia and USA were not as bad in early 2000s as they are now. There were those pushing for closer military cooperation between the two nations. Eg.: Admiral Vladimir Masorin, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy from 2005 to 2007:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Masorin


OTL, you have Russian and US forces “within shooting distance of each other” in Syria. Yet both sides are currently continuing their deployment and have deescalation lines of communication open.
There would still be a push by the Russian government to handle the crisis itself. So while deescalation lines of communication would be highly prudent, the Russians will not be pleased with American presence. They weren't too fond of America's actions in Syria, even though they didn't intervene until they were sure Al-Assad won't collapse.
 
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