The Militant Doberman
Banned
OTL there have been some accusations levelled against Georgia (the one in the Caucasus mountains, not the one in the Dixie), claiming the nation is sheltering Islamic terrorists. To Westerners, this might seem like a strange claim given that Georgia is a predominantly Christian country (& home to one of the oldest branches of the Christian religion at that) and has warm relations with the West. Since the accusations are predominantly coming from Russia it can be easy to dismiss them for some people as a byproduct of the bad relations between Georgia and Russia.
But if one bothers to look deeper, one can learn that Georgia is home to the Pankisi Gorge — a valley region on the Russia-Georgia border populated by the Islamic Kist people. The Kist are essentially Chechens who live in Georgia (as an example, the late infamous 2nd in command of the Islamic State, Abu Omar al-Shishani, often reported as simply a “Chechen” by Western media was actually a Kist Georgian national and a former sergeant in the Georgian military who saw action during the 2008 Georgia-Russia War) and as such have both participated in and were impacted by the Chechen Conflict.
According to this 2002 Times article with USA’s help Georgian authorities arrested over a dozen al-Qaeda-linked Arab militants operating in Pankisi Gorge; not only were they conducting jihad against Russians in Chechnya but they were also planning attacks on Western targets.
The Times article goes on to say that the foreign terrorists in Georgia were “protected by high-ranking and corrupt officials” who were then purged. Ten years later in 2012, during the presidency of the “anti-corruption” crusader Mikheil Saakashvili evidence was uncovered of a Georgian government plan to arm, train and supply Chechen rebels before sending them to Russia (see page 235 of this report by the Public Defender of Georgia).
So, now we get to the AHC/WI scenario: What if sometime post-9-11 Washington decides (rightly or wrongly) that it isn’t just a few “high-ranking and corrupt officials” in Georgia that are cozy with Islamic terrorism and the whole country needs regime-change?
How would the war go? Would there be a strong post-invasion insurgency? Georgia does have a favourable mountainous terrain for this.
Would the post-war reconstruction and nation-building go better or worse for US than it did in Iraq and Afghanistan? What about the American culture back home? Would the impact of it be different on America than the Iraq/Afghanistan invasion? Would, for example, more Georgian food restaurants be opened in US similar to how there was a boom of Tiki restaurants post WW2?
How would surrounding nations like Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia react? At the time Russia had peacekeepers stationed in Abkhazia (& maybe South Ossetia too) — I don’t think US would invade without talking with Moscow first. Would Abkhazia & SO get earlier & wider recognition of their declared independence? Or maybe Russia and USA divide Georgia between two occupation zones similar to post-WW2 Korea?
How would this impact other continuing conflicts in the region like the one between Armenia & Azerbaijan?
But if one bothers to look deeper, one can learn that Georgia is home to the Pankisi Gorge — a valley region on the Russia-Georgia border populated by the Islamic Kist people. The Kist are essentially Chechens who live in Georgia (as an example, the late infamous 2nd in command of the Islamic State, Abu Omar al-Shishani, often reported as simply a “Chechen” by Western media was actually a Kist Georgian national and a former sergeant in the Georgian military who saw action during the 2008 Georgia-Russia War) and as such have both participated in and were impacted by the Chechen Conflict.
According to this 2002 Times article with USA’s help Georgian authorities arrested over a dozen al-Qaeda-linked Arab militants operating in Pankisi Gorge; not only were they conducting jihad against Russians in Chechnya but they were also planning attacks on Western targets.
The Times article goes on to say that the foreign terrorists in Georgia were “protected by high-ranking and corrupt officials” who were then purged. Ten years later in 2012, during the presidency of the “anti-corruption” crusader Mikheil Saakashvili evidence was uncovered of a Georgian government plan to arm, train and supply Chechen rebels before sending them to Russia (see page 235 of this report by the Public Defender of Georgia).
So, now we get to the AHC/WI scenario: What if sometime post-9-11 Washington decides (rightly or wrongly) that it isn’t just a few “high-ranking and corrupt officials” in Georgia that are cozy with Islamic terrorism and the whole country needs regime-change?
How would the war go? Would there be a strong post-invasion insurgency? Georgia does have a favourable mountainous terrain for this.
Would the post-war reconstruction and nation-building go better or worse for US than it did in Iraq and Afghanistan? What about the American culture back home? Would the impact of it be different on America than the Iraq/Afghanistan invasion? Would, for example, more Georgian food restaurants be opened in US similar to how there was a boom of Tiki restaurants post WW2?
How would surrounding nations like Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia react? At the time Russia had peacekeepers stationed in Abkhazia (& maybe South Ossetia too) — I don’t think US would invade without talking with Moscow first. Would Abkhazia & SO get earlier & wider recognition of their declared independence? Or maybe Russia and USA divide Georgia between two occupation zones similar to post-WW2 Korea?
How would this impact other continuing conflicts in the region like the one between Armenia & Azerbaijan?
Last edited: