AHC/WI - The British Support the Spanish in the Spanish American War

In OTL Britain had favored Spanish control over Cuba, because the possession of Cuba by an unfriendly United States could have harmed British trade in the Caribbean. However, with the guarantee of Cuban independence by the U.S. in 1898, Britain abandoned this policy and supported America's position on Cuba and the war.

What if America had not made this declaration? Would that alone be enough for the British to support the Spanish? If not, what else could have changed the British's position on the war [perhaps much worse/more tense US-UK relations]?

If the British had joined the war on the side of the Spanish, how would this have affected the war? Would it be a Spanish victory? A draw?
 
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America gets embarrassed in 1898. 1916 is called the Hunger Winter, shortly before the Federated Workers Republic is established in London.
 
In OTL Britain had favored Spanish control over Cuba, because the possession of Cuba by an unfriendly United States could have harmed British trade in the Caribbean. However, with the guarantee of Cuban independence by the U.S. in 1898, Britain abandoned this policy and supported America's position on Cuba and the war.

What if America had not made this declaration? Would that alone be enough for the British to support the Spanish? If not, what else could have changed the British's position on the war [perhaps much worse/more tense US-UK relations]?

If the British had joined the war on the side of the SPANISH, how would this have affected the war? Would it be a Spanish victory? A draw?

Correcting it...

If the British intervene it will be hell of a naval warfare. At this point if the British secure the seas, all they have to do is to starve the American forces in the Spanish colonies.

A status quo is a victory enough for the Spanish. After that the Spanish still have to deal with rebel forces.
 
Maybe an earlier WW1 with a German allied USA? Maybe Mexico would join the war on the side of the Entente. In that case if the Entente won (which is less likely in this scenario) the post-War borders of the USA would be very interesting.
 
Correcting it...

If the British intervene it will be hell of a naval warfare. At this point if the British secure the seas, all they have to do is to starve the American forces in the Spanish colonies.

A status quo is a victory enough for the Spanish. After that the Spanish still have to deal with rebel forces.

Thanks, edited the error.

So the war is an American loss or a Draw?
 
Maybe an earlier WW1 with a German allied USA? Maybe Mexico would join the war on the side of the Entente. In that case if the Entente won (which is less likely in this scenario) the post-War borders of the USA would be very interesting.

I get why the US would changes sides, but why would the Mexicans join the Entente in this alternate WW1?
 

Grimbald

Monthly Donor
If the Brits joined Spain in 1898, the Brits win at sea: certainly.

But what do they so with the 250,000 men in blue coats occupying Canada in 1900.

If Mexico joined in, the southern front is put on hold until Canada is delt with then the boys in blue head south.
 
If the Brits joined Spain in 1898, the Brits win at sea: certainly.

But what do they so with the 250,000 men in blue coats occupying Canada in 1900.

If Mexico joined in, the southern front is put on hold until Canada is delt with then the boys in blue head south.

Most of those were ill trained militia IIRC
 
In the buildup to the Spanish-American War pretty much everyone had sympathy for the Spanish. The Germans were trying to organize intevention and the french were at least somewhat willing. Russia wasn't having anything to do with it Russia had great relations with the Americans and weren't going t orisk them on the folly of keeping a permamenant fleet in the western Hemisphere

The British were all into appeasement at the time . When Cleveland had threatened war over Venezuela, the British realized that long term their days were numbered in the Americas. Salisbury was willing to fight but none of his colleauges were willing to do so.

As for the war, the British economy would suffer horribly as the Americans cut off the supply of raw materials. The Armed Merchant ships would raid British shipping and send many to the bottom. The entire sailing fleet would get tied up as well. The British can't blockade the Americans and the number of raiders at sea will soon make the Royal Merchant Fleet a thing of the past as the ships all switch to German registry

On land, the Americans will eventually get their industry running and build up their militia to the point of being unstoppable. Say good bye to Canada

The Americans will finance this by seizing British property

By the time the Boer War rolls around the British will realize how stupid t his whole thing was and seek terms
 
In the buildup to the Spanish-American War pretty much everyone had sympathy for the Spanish. The Germans were trying to organize intevention and the french were at least somewhat willing. Russia wasn't having anything to do with it Russia had great relations with the Americans and weren't going t orisk them on the folly of keeping a permamenant fleet in the western Hemisphere

The British were all into appeasement at the time . When Cleveland had threatened war over Venezuela, the British realized that long term their days were numbered in the Americas. Salisbury was willing to fight but none of his colleauges were willing to do so.

As for the war, the British economy would suffer horribly as the Americans cut off the supply of raw materials. The Armed Merchant ships would raid British shipping and send many to the bottom. The entire sailing fleet would get tied up as well. The British can't blockade the Americans and the number of raiders at sea will soon make the Royal Merchant Fleet a thing of the past as the ships all switch to German registry

On land, the Americans will eventually get their industry running and build up their militia to the point of being unstoppable. Say good bye to Canada

The Americans will finance this by seizing British property

By the time the Boer War rolls around the British will realize how stupid t his whole thing was and seek terms
Does that mean that there could be a WW1 that is Spain, Britain, and Germany VS America, France and Russia? France would join because it would want revenge on Germany.
 
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If the Brits joined Spain in 1898, the Brits win at sea: certainly.

But what do they so with the 250,000 men in blue coats occupying Canada in 1900.

If Mexico joined in, the southern front is put on hold until Canada is delt with then the boys in blue head south.

Well worth noting the British Regular Army numbered around 220,000 men all told with an additional 147,000 Indian regulars and behind these there are some half a million Army Reserves, Militia, Yeomanry and Volunteers in the UK. Of course not all of them will come anywhere close to Canada but you need to get out of your head the notion of the British having only a small army in the 1890s.

Of course in terms of sheer man power in theory at least the Spanish Army was even bigger.

You might find this US Department of War booklet from 1896 a useful guide to the US assessment of the land forces of their prospective adversaries...it is not entirely accurate and of course additionally about 2 years out of date but useful in a general sense. The British are labelled as England in the text and their entry starts at page 39, the Spanish entry starts page 179.

Generally speaking I doubt the British would go to war for the Spanish but if they were prepared to do so because being generally mad or something then likely the US would have quietly pretended it was uninterested in starting anything anyway.
 
Does that mean that there could be a WW1 that is Spain, Britain, and Germany VS America, France and Russia? France would join because it would want revenge on Germany.

Doubt if it would spread. France and Russia aren't going to war for the Americans- who are far away and the Germans, Spanish and British are so close. The Germans aren't really into fighting the Americans more a rah rah section. The Austrian Hapsburg connection is there (the Queen Regent of Spain is FJ's grand neice? IIRC) but actually fighting the American is a different thing

Most likely they just sit on the sidelines and let the British and Americans pummel each other. If the Americans bang up t he British good enough, a late gang tackle is always possible. Doubt if that happens but British finances are going to be wrecked and the British won't be borrowing money from the Americans to finance WWI
 
Doubt if it would spread. France and Russia aren't going to war for the Americans- who are far away and the Germans, Spanish and British are so close. The Germans aren't really into fighting the Americans more a rah rah section. The Austrian Hapsburg connection is there (the Queen Regent of Spain is FJ's grand neice? IIRC) but actually fighting the American is a different thing

Most likely they just sit on the sidelines and let the British and Americans pummel each other. If the Americans bang up t he British good enough, a late gang tackle is always possible. Doubt if that happens but British finances are going to be wrecked and the British won't be borrowing money from the Americans to finance WWI

You are not even following your own logic here. If the British find themselves with an actively hostile US their choice of European ally will be dictated by which Great Power is most reliably hostile to that same US. Great news for Kaiser Bill. He wins the 1914-16(?) War while the British coin it selling the Germans munitions and shipping space. Subsequently it is possible that the Germans decide to close the US out of European markets (as German goods were most often in head to head competition with American ones rather than British niche manufactures) resulting in a depression in the US.

This is not a given but is actually significantly more likely than your scenario.
 
You are not even following your own logic here. If the British find themselves with an actively hostile US their choice of European ally will be dictated by which Great Power is most reliably hostile to that same US. Great news for Kaiser Bill. He wins the 1914-16(?) War while the British coin it selling the Germans munitions and shipping space. Subsequently it is possible that the Germans decide to close the US out of European markets (as German goods were most often in head to head competition with American ones rather than British niche manufactures) resulting in a depression in the US.

This is not a given but is actually significantly more likely than your scenario.

I think your projecting the world o 1914 unto 1898. In 1898, France and Britain were the traditional allies of the US, Britain the traditional enemy. I doubt if either France or Russia is going to intervene to fight the British and anyone who helps them for the Americans. They would be quite happy to let them all bang themselves up. The Kaiser would as well. The Germans have greivences galore against the British

Nor can you say that the kaiser is openly hostile to America. He's interested in preserving the Hapsburg monarchy in Spain doesn't mean he's going to go invade anyone. what do the Americans have that he wants? Let alone something that he would go to war over. The British have Canada and Caribbean Islands, British Honduras and Guyana. What is Germany going to get by war with the Americans?

If the British have been banged up by an American war they would be even more inclined to seek peace with the Franco-Russian alliance which threatened their Empire everywhere. With their finances wrecked by the war with the Americans and the Boers, the British aren't going t o be in a very adventurist mood. Are the British going to sign the Japanese alliance and risk war with Russia, France and the Americans?

ANd what if the Russians just take advantage of British preoccupation to eliminate the Japanese threat?

To be frank, I see no reason anyone would stick their necks out for the British and plenty of reasons to sit back and let the Americans and British bang the hell out of each other.

Now if WWI happens OTL then the Kaiser would be a big winner no one denied that. But is it going to resemble anything like Otl? Doubtful
 
I think your projecting the world o 1914 unto 1898.

Switcheroo much?

In 1898, France and Britain were the traditional allies of the US, Britain the traditional enemy. I doubt if either France or Russia is going to intervene to fight the British and anyone who helps them for the Americans. They would be quite happy to let them all bang themselves up. The Kaiser would as well. The Germans have greivences galore against the British

Not really Germany or at least Wilhelm wanted to acquire a colonial interest in Venezuela but were blocked by the Monroe Doctrine. Germany (including Wilhelm) would quite like a British alliance as it came with all kinds of juicy advantages. France and Russia (I assume that is who you met by your first Britain?) were quite often neither here no there in regards the US as mostly it did not impact their strategic picture and vice versa.


Nor can you say that the kaiser is openly hostile to America. He's interested in preserving the Hapsburg monarchy in Spain doesn't mean he's going to go invade anyone. what do the Americans have that he wants? Let alone something that he would go to war over. The British have Canada and Caribbean Islands, British Honduras and Guyana. What is Germany going to get by war with the Americans?

Well yes I can, in fact he had some quite choice words to say about America however it is true this negative attitude only becomes apparent when the US truly stats throwing its weight around in 1898. He had been somewhat hopeful of expanding German influence in the Spanish Empire which it is worth noting had been under Bourbon Monarchs since Philip V.

Nor do I posit German intervention in a war in the Americas. I am sort of baffled why the British would fight, for it is likely to be them doing almost all the fighting and jeopardise considerable trade interests in the US, for Spain to hold on to colonies it is in the process of losing nor for the US to risk facing the British who are far and away more formidable a challenge on land and sea and in terms of industry and finance than Spain. The other European powers would likely look on and watch.

However Germany seeks to expand its Empire unlike the fairly content French and the Russians who are interested in their near abroad and thus more of headache for the British. Thus Wilhelm can dangle his Americanophobia before the British allowing the British to safely tame one of the only two naval powers who can potentially catch them in the long run, the other being the US. If a European War breaks out then the US is fairly likely to not intervene and the British are not likely to be doing that much on the Continent themselves. However the gain for Germany of not being blockaded is obvious even if the British can not be induced to join in and hit the French in their Empire and on the high seas.

If the British have been banged up by an American war they would be even more inclined to seek peace with the Franco-Russian alliance which threatened their Empire everywhere. With their finances wrecked by the war with the Americans and the Boers, the British aren't going t o be in a very adventurist mood. Are the British going to sign the Japanese alliance and risk war with Russia, France and the Americans?

The British worse case scenario is a successful land invasion of Canada, this still leaves an intact RN to outface France and Russia, this would be the case even without an allied Germany but doubly so with one.

ANd what if the Russians just take advantage of British preoccupation to eliminate the Japanese threat?

The British did not ally with Japan until 1902. The Russians might in this TL avoid conflict with the Japanese if Germany is chummier with the British as Nicholas II might twig that Wilhelm was BSing about coming in on his side against the Yellow Peril.

To be frank, I see no reason anyone would stick their necks out for the British and plenty of reasons to sit back and let the Americans and British bang the hell out of each other.

Now if WWI happens OTL then the Kaiser would be a big winner no one denied that. But is it going to resemble anything like Otl? Doubtful

The thing is you argued for an exact reprise of OTL WWI but with the US not trading with the British as per OTL. I am not asking for anyone to stick their head out for the Brits, I am a bit baffled that the Brits might stick their fingers out for the Spaniards, however Kaiser Bill merely is posited as acting in his own selfish interest to Germany's gain. The difference is my scenario potentially follows from the POD while I struggle to see how yours even relates to it.
 
The British buys the Philippines in 1896 in exchange for alliance since the British companies have already established in the Philippines.
 
Britain getting into a fight with the Americans at the same time the Fashoda Incident is occurring seems like a rather bad strategy, to say the least.
 
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