AHC/WI: "The Air Force with a Country"

[Ellis MacVey]

Okay, so, before the German unification, Prussia was once famously referred to as "the Army with a Country" due to how large and influential its military was, to the point where it basically ran the country (or so I've heard).

In the Hoi4 alternate history mod Kaiserreich: Legacy of the Weltkrieg, I'm pretty sure Transamur and/or Deutsch-Ostasien are referred to as "the Navy with a Country" sometimes due to the navy's dominance in those two countries.

So, since I happen to have a fascination with the romanticized aerial combat of the first world war (which I know isn't very accurate, but I don't really care, it's awesome), I've decided to put my own spin on it.

Even though airplanes weren't really invented until 1903 and weren't really used in combat until WW1, making this situation somewhat unlikely, your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have a nation's airforce develop a similar dominance to that of the Prussian army in the 1700s-1800s. You choose which country.

The reason I posted this in the "before 1900" forum is because, even though airplanes were invented after 1900, and we aren't changing the date of their invention, this would probably require some pretty significant changes to at least one country in the late 1800s to put it in just the right position to be dominated by its air force in such a way.

Even then, I know it's pretty unlikely, but it's a really cool scenario, so please suspend the disbelief a little bit, though outright ASB-ing is still not allowed.

Edit: Made the scenario more reasonable by removing the "by 1925 at the latest" and "fight in a world war" requirements.

 

[dakkafex]

Alt-Cold War where von Braun and the other Project Paperclip scientists are killed or never brought to the US, leading American missile technology to be decades behind OTL. SAC and the 'bomber generals' become even more prominent, and more and more funds are poured into R&D and production of strategic bombers and escorts at the expense of the rest of the military, and doctrine becomes increasingly bomber-centric. Cut to a WWIII in the late 50s or 60s, where Soviet missiles aren't quite good enough and the Valkyrie squadrons of the enlarged SAC are pivotal to winning the war for the US. The nation is still pretty hammered during the exchange, though, and the military, which is to say, the Air Force, takes control to maintain order. The 'emergency administration' never quite seems to be ready to transfer power back to the civilian government, and the US enters the 21st century a nuclear junta whose power is written in skeins of contrails and the drone of engines.

 

[Ellis MacVey]

Alt-Cold War where von Braun and the other Project Paperclip scientists are killed or never brought to the US, leading American missile technology to be decades behind OTL. SAC and the 'bomber generals' become even more prominent, and more and more funds are poured into R&D and production of strategic bombers and escorts at the expense of the rest of the military, and doctrine becomes increasingly bomber-centric. Cut to a WWIII in the late 50s or 60s, where Soviet missiles aren't quite good enough and the Valkyrie squadrons of the enlarged SAC are pivotal to winning the war for the US. The nation is still pretty hammered during the exchange, though, and the military, which is to say, the Air Force, takes control to maintain order. The 'emergency administration' never quite seems to be ready to transfer power back to the civilian government, and the US enters the 21st century a nuclear junta whose power is written in skeins of contrails and the drone of engines.

The Air Force takes control after 1925 (which was the latest date that it could take control in this AHC), but this is really cool, so I don't really mind. Especially the "nuclear junta whose power is written in skeins of contrails and the drone of engines" part. That is a truly awesome description!

 

[dakkafex]

The Air Force takes control after 1925 (which was the latest date that it could take control in this AHC)

Aargh, I missed that stipulation. Hmm, you might be able to pull it off if you can get a state going whole-hog Futurist in the immediate postwar, but 1925 is a hard boundry to stay behind without a WWII to allow airpower to really mature and prove its worth beyond abstract theory and doctrine.

 

[JennyB]

Balbo's Italy?

 

[Ninja Bear]

Countries generally develop their militaries based on strategic necessity. So, to determine which countries would be susceptible to having their politics dominated by a large and extremely influential air force, we would have to determine what kind of country would find it most valuable to prioritize their air forces to such a great extent.

Generally, the air force being the most important military arm makes the most sense in a scenario like modern Africa, where you have a couple of wealthy areas ruling over a vast and underdeveloped hinterland, particularly where most of the military operations are directed against rebels rather than conventional foreign militaries. A significant number of modern military operations in African countries have relied heavily on foreign or domestic airborne units (ex. the Battle of Kolwezi, Operation Kitona, Operation Thunderbolt, the various activities of South Africa's 1 Parachute Battalion, so on and so forth), simply because it makes a lot of sense for Africa's geography. Paratroops with air support can deploy to an area much more quickly than conventional forces, and ensures the conventional forces don't have to cross hostile terrain that would lead to them suffering high attrition.

For the country to be effectively managed by the air force to the extent required (an "air force with a country") there need to be few other competing political institutions with any influence. For example, a country without a strong military tradition might be more susceptible to this (a country with a strong army tradition like Prussia would probably wind up as "an army with a country, except the army has planes," for example). Likewise, a country where no other strong political institutions were initially set up might be susceptible.

There are a couple of countries that I could see being in this position, with a large hinterland to govern and the resources to do it in this manner, but which wouldn't otherwise have strong institutions or at least strong military institutions. I think the best potential example would be a colonial power "pulling a Taiwan" and needing to keep the locals down, like a French government in only Algeria or an Italian government in only Libya -- potentially in this case the air force could be evacuated mostly intact, while other institutions fell to foreign conquest or whatever revolution is going on at the moment, leaving it the strongest and most powerful part of the new government from the get-go.

Another, more interesting option might be an early-era United States, depending on who exactly winds up in charge. A certain Mr. Franklin was a strong proponent of the kind of air force that would have been available at the time:

"Five Thousand Balloons capable of raising two Men each, would not cost more than Five Ships of the Line: And where is the Prince who can afford so to cover his Country with Troops for its Defense, as that Ten Thousand Men descending from the Clouds, might not in many Places do an infinite deal of Mischief, before a Force could be brought together to repel them?"​

The US in the 1700s and 1800s also matches the African situation, with a wealthy coast and a vast undeveloped hinterland with frequent guerilla action; it is entirely reasonable for the US to do this if it is physically capable of it. The US also wouldn't have too many other strong institutions under the Articles of Confederation regime (particularly not military ones), and had a strong possibility of a military coup early on (particularly if General Washington catches a bullet or has similarly prestigious peers). Most of the problems, then, are technical; if the US federal government can get Franklin's idea working so that a main vanguard of the US military is the "balloon force," you can also have the US start shifting toward citizen-stratocracy based on "every free able-bodied white male citizen being part of the militia," and quite possibly you could have this goal met before 1800.

 

[PoorBoy]

The Kingdom of Italy agrees to 'donate' much of its air force to the Sovereign Military Hospitaller Order of Saint John of Jerusalem (a.k.a the Knights of Malta) after WWII as a condition to being allowed to switch sides during the war.

Then the war proceeds more or less as per OTL, the Yugoslav partisans still behave badly against their Italian 'allies' in Trieste, and the Knights need somewhere to put all those planes. And so, instead of trying to turn it into an independent city-state as planned IOTL, Trieste is turned into a UN trusteeship under the Knights Hospitaller, now known as the Knights of Trieste.

 

[Arkenfolm]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Rawlings - Military dictator of Ghana who was an Air Force lieutenant. There might have been a few other Air Force guys who served as presidents in Africa after coups, and IIRC one or two in Latin America. The biggest problem with an African country like this is the need to go pass out the money and offices to the army (and to a lesser extant the Navy) which would keep the size of the Air Force down. But maybe in a TL like described above with the USAF's dominance (which is pretty plausible), African countries could be inspired by this too. It might be cheaper to buy the small COIN aircraft and helicopters TTL (more on the market, economies of scale, etc.) which would form the backbone of an Air Force like this to make the option even more attractive.

 

[The Star-Spangled Hero]

This scenario really reminds me of that Jules Verne novel, Robur the Conqueror. Makes me wonder if some aviation obsessed noble or rich explorer could've tried pulling a Leopold, setting up their own personal colony in Africa. Probably would end in disaster and getting absorbed by another power during the Scramble for Africa.

 

[taxidea]

Two strange options in my mind. So first off Transamur got me thinking that a messier Russian civil war could lead to this. Maybe if Roman Von Ungern Sternberg had a better relationship with the Russian air force he could get them to relocate there. Mongolia seems like a place that a good air force would be useful. Another much later option would be South Africa, a surviving Rhodesia or Israel. All of them have a small but relatively wealthy population fighting against a technologically inferior but numerically superior enemy.

 

[ennobee]

Since this is the 'before 1900' forum, I would like to imagine a United Kingdom with a 'flying navy' made out of steampunk airships connecting the Isles to India, Australia and South Africa. Too bad this is ASB and to be left to the likes of Michael Moorcock.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Since this is the 'before 1900' forum, I would like to imagine a United Kingdom with a 'flying navy' made out of steampunk airships connecting the Isles to India, Australia and South Africa. Too bad this is ASB and to be left to the likes of Michael Moorcock.

The big problem would be how to get the regular navy out of the way to let the air force take over.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Countries generally develop their militaries based on strategic necessity. So, to determine which countries would be susceptible to having their politics dominated by a large and extremely influential air force, we would have to determine what kind of country would find it most valuable to prioritize their air forces to such a great extent.

Generally, the air force being the most important military arm makes the most sense in a scenario like modern Africa, where you have a couple of wealthy areas ruling over a vast and underdeveloped hinterland, particularly where most of the military operations are directed against rebels rather than conventional foreign militaries. A significant number of modern military operations in African countries have relied heavily on foreign or domestic airborne units (ex. the Battle of Kolwezi, Operation Kitona, Operation Thunderbolt, the various activities of South Africa's 1 Parachute Battalion, so on and so forth), simply because it makes a lot of sense for Africa's geography. Paratroops with air support can deploy to an area much more quickly than conventional forces, and ensures the conventional forces don't have to cross hostile terrain that would lead to them suffering high attrition.

For the country to be effectively managed by the air force to the extent required (an "air force with a country") there need to be few other competing political institutions with any influence. For example, a country without a strong military tradition might be more susceptible to this (a country with a strong army tradition like Prussia would probably wind up as "an army with a country, except the army has planes," for example). Likewise, a country where no other strong political institutions were initially set up might be susceptible.

There are a couple of countries that I could see being in this position, with a large hinterland to govern and the resources to do it in this manner, but which wouldn't otherwise have strong institutions or at least strong military institutions. I think the best potential example would be a colonial power "pulling a Taiwan" and needing to keep the locals down, like a French government in only Algeria or an Italian government in only Libya -- potentially in this case the air force could be evacuated mostly intact, while other institutions fell to foreign conquest or whatever revolution is going on at the moment, leaving it the strongest and most powerful part of the new government from the get-go.

Another, more interesting option might be an early-era United States, depending on who exactly winds up in charge. A certain Mr. Franklin was a strong proponent of the kind of air force that would have been available at the time:

"Five Thousand Balloons capable of raising two Men each, would not cost more than Five Ships of the Line: And where is the Prince who can afford so to cover his Country with Troops for its Defense, as that Ten Thousand Men descending from the Clouds, might not in many Places do an infinite deal of Mischief, before a Force could be brought together to repel them?"​

The US in the 1700s and 1800s also matches the African situation, with a wealthy coast and a vast undeveloped hinterland with frequent guerilla action; it is entirely reasonable for the US to do this if it is physically capable of it. The US also wouldn't have too many other strong institutions under the Articles of Confederation regime (particularly not military ones), and had a strong possibility of a military coup early on (particularly if General Washington catches a bullet or has similarly prestigious peers). Most of the problems, then, are technical; if the US federal government can get Franklin's idea working so that a main vanguard of the US military is the "balloon force," you can also have the US start shifting toward citizen-stratocracy based on "every free able-bodied white male citizen being part of the militia," and quite possibly you could have this goal met before 1800.

As neat an idea as this is, and I'm hardly one to call Franklin a fool, would this qualify as an air force if they aren't fighting from the sky, but merely use their balloons to get to and from the battlefield? These sound like the aireal equivalent to Dragoons, given they still basically function as line infantry, and would have to work in co-operation with or melded into the conventional army establishment to the point that I'm not sure they'd even be established as a seperate distinct "Air Force" (Rather than being an earlier version of the Army Air Corps (Subordinate to the generals) or just BEING the army and being the dominant faction over the cavalry, foot infantry, artillery, ect. Certainly, they'd need a VERY strong logistical corps behind them to support that many hot air balloons, so it only makes sense to hook them into the rest of the system.

 

[juanml82]

Another, more interesting option might be an early-era United States, depending on who exactly winds up in charge. A certain Mr. Franklin was a strong proponent of the kind of air force that would have been available at the time:

"Five Thousand Balloons capable of raising two Men each, would not cost more than Five Ships of the Line: And where is the Prince who can afford so to cover his Country with Troops for its Defense, as that Ten Thousand Men descending from the Clouds, might not in many Places do an infinite deal of Mischief, before a Force could be brought together to repel them?"​

The US in the 1700s and 1800s also matches the African situation, with a wealthy coast and a vast undeveloped hinterland with frequent guerilla action; it is entirely reasonable for the US to do this if it is physically capable of it. The US also wouldn't have too many other strong institutions under the Articles of Confederation regime (particularly not military ones), and had a strong possibility of a military coup early on (particularly if General Washington catches a bullet or has similarly prestigious peers). Most of the problems, then, are technical; if the US federal government can get Franklin's idea working so that a main vanguard of the US military is the "balloon force," you can also have the US start shifting toward citizen-stratocracy based on "every free able-bodied white male citizen being part of the militia," and quite possibly you could have this goal met before 1800.

A problem with 19th century USA is the range of the early biplanes.
This is ASB, because the technology and available resources don't fit, but your post made me think about an ASB-ATL of the Argentine civil wars fought with biplanes and airships - warlords and natives both using air power to raid each other over the vast distances involved. Taking cattle would be problematic unless large steampunk airships are involved, but maybe that can be resolved by switching cattle with unobtanium

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Another, more interesting option might be an early-era United States, depending on who exactly winds up in charge. A certain Mr. Franklin was a strong proponent of the kind of air force that would have been available at the time:

"Five Thousand Balloons capable of raising two Men each, would not cost more than Five Ships of the Line: And where is the Prince who can afford so to cover his Country with Troops for its Defense, as that Ten Thousand Men descending from the Clouds, might not in many Places do an infinite deal of Mischief, before a Force could be brought together to repel them?"
The US in the 1700s and 1800s also matches the African situation, with a wealthy coast and a vast undeveloped hinterland with frequent guerilla action; it is entirely reasonable for the US to do this if it is physically capable of it. The US also wouldn't have too many other strong institutions under the Articles of Confederation regime (particularly not military ones), and had a strong possibility of a military coup early on (particularly if General Washington catches a bullet or has similarly prestigious peers). Most of the problems, then, are technical; if the US federal government can get Franklin's idea working so that a main vanguard of the US military is the "balloon force," you can also have the US start shifting toward citizen-stratocracy based on "every free able-bodied white male citizen being part of the militia," and quite possibly you could have this goal met before 1800.

With all due respect to Mr. Franklin, I don't think this was one of his better ideas. Aside from anything else, hot air balloons would be far too susceptible to the vagaries of the weather to be reliable troop transports, which (I suspect) is why they were never used for this purpose IOTL. Also, they'd be pretty slow, so it would be quite easy to shoot them down, as well as to assemble a defence force to counter them when they do land.

ETA: Oh, and another thing, a two-man balloon wouldn't be able to carry much in the way of supplies, s they wouldn't be much good for extended campaigns.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

The Dominican Air Force wielded extensive influence in the government during the late Trujillato. They also launched the 1963 coup against Juan Bosch under Elias Wessin.

If they play their cards right, you can get the Air Force to maintain military control for a bit longer, perhaps a decade, and take the place of a traditional army based Junta.

 

[Hecatee]

Mid-19th century : French development in hot-air balloon lead to sturdier airships that help turn the tide in 1870 by providing better recon and prevent Sedan's defeat while also providing harassing bombing on the Germans.

The UK and France have a falling out due to colonial clashes in Africa, which leads to a major naval battle in the late 19th century where a large part of the RN is sunk by French airships whose bombs cause superficial but debilitating damages (fires on the bridges and in the turrets, destruction of optics and firecontrol systems, ...) and French small, agile, torpedo armed warships, to the point the British need to rethink their defense strategy. Lacking resources to rebuild the RN and facing the threat of the airships, they decide to use the Frenches' own tactics against them by looking for small agile units able to bring down the airships and strafe/bomb targets on the ground. The new heavier than air appear ideal for this goal, especially as they can be built with much less resources than airships or battleships.

1/4th of 20th century : the UK has a number of ready squadrons along its coasts, made for repelling any forces before they can land or bomb in the UK. Longer ranged planes are being used as recon units over the seas. While the bomber and recon units are maned by more pedestrian britons, the fighters units are often crewed by younger sons of the aristocracy who see themselves as shining knights defending Albion from all threats. On the defensive, UK does not look toward strategic bombing but rather toward tactical defense. Given it's importance in the UK defense scheme, the RAF has a lot of clout, its elites replacing the dishonored admiralty to the point that a satirist speaks of "an air force with a country".

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Israel?