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Challenge: make the Teutonic Order win.

I'm planning a TL based on this POD, and will eventually post here, but I need help nailing down a plausible and specific, yet simple, POD that enables a Teutonic victory [preferably one that a) crushes the Polish-Lithuanian Union, b) leaves the Teutonic army largely intact, and c) kills Jogailo and possibly Vytautas in battle (optional)].

Here's the 'WI?' part: could a total victory over Poland-Lithuania enable the Teutonic Order state to accelerate toward transition to a secular kingdom quicker? A Teutonic Kingdom of the Baltic? Could the Teutons push the crusade further north/east into Lithuania and Russia, before the consolidation of the Russian principalities under Muscovy? Would it be better to simply hold onto/strengthen what they have (as of 1410)?

Some notes I have so far...

Possible PODs include:
-prior to battle, the 'Lizard Union', a group of Polish-sympathizers headed by the treasonous knight Nikolaus von Renys, is routed and thus the Teutons are never 'stabbed in the back' by his [OTL] initiation of a premature retreat mid-battle
-Lupold von Kökeritz succeeds in killing Jogailo in the resulting melee of Ulrich von Jungingen's charge against the Polish command/reserves (IOTL he was stopped by Jogailo's secretary, Zbigniev Olesnicki)
-Frederic von Wallenrode successfully routs the Lithuanian + Tatar cavalry, thus removing them from the battle; von Wallenrode then directs his cavalry in conjunction with Ulrich's charge, and succeeds in overwhelming the Polish cavalry (who were themselves a match for the Teutonic Knights) (IOTL, the Lithuanian cavalry fail to lure von Wallenrode's cavalry away with their feigned retreat, but return later to deal a death blow to the Teutonic left(?) flank)

Notes:
-Ulrich wasn't half as capable as his brother, Konrad. Konrad oversaw the Teutonic Order at the height of its power, and Ulrich is blamed for its downfall. Something to consider---even if they win, can Ulrich really make the most of a Teutonic victory? Or will he just blunder through the peace talks and make things worse as he did under Konrad?
-Conversion to a secular state mid-to-late-15th century---possible for the HRE to grant the Teutonic Grand Master a title (such as Grand Duchy or even Kingdom of Prussia) in the wake of a crushing Polish-Lithuanian defeat? Could an upstart Grandmaster get away with declaring a kingdom himself (my original rough draft had Ulrich's successor declaring a 'High Kingdom of Prussia' resulting in increased tensions between the Order and the Emperor)
-Future of the Teutonic state---increased German settlement in the Teutonic lands; mounting tensions between the Prussian cities and the Teutonic leadership (what happens if no Poland to fight on behalf of the Prussian Confederation against the Teutonic Order?); what happens if/when the Polish-Lithuanian Union dissolves?
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