AHC/WI: Teutonic Order + allies win Battle of Grunwald

Challenge: make the Teutonic Order win.

I'm planning a TL based on this POD, and will eventually post here, but I need help nailing down a plausible and specific, yet simple, POD that enables a Teutonic victory [preferably one that a) crushes the Polish-Lithuanian Union, b) leaves the Teutonic army largely intact, and c) kills Jogailo and possibly Vytautas in battle (optional)].

Here's the 'WI?' part: could a total victory over Poland-Lithuania enable the Teutonic Order state to accelerate toward transition to a secular kingdom quicker? A Teutonic Kingdom of the Baltic? Could the Teutons push the crusade further north/east into Lithuania and Russia, before the consolidation of the Russian principalities under Muscovy? Would it be better to simply hold onto/strengthen what they have (as of 1410)?

Some notes I have so far...

Possible PODs include:
-prior to battle, the 'Lizard Union', a group of Polish-sympathizers headed by the treasonous knight Nikolaus von Renys, is routed and thus the Teutons are never 'stabbed in the back' by his [OTL] initiation of a premature retreat mid-battle
-Lupold von Kökeritz succeeds in killing Jogailo in the resulting melee of Ulrich von Jungingen's charge against the Polish command/reserves (IOTL he was stopped by Jogailo's secretary, Zbigniev Olesnicki)
-Frederic von Wallenrode successfully routs the Lithuanian + Tatar cavalry, thus removing them from the battle; von Wallenrode then directs his cavalry in conjunction with Ulrich's charge, and succeeds in overwhelming the Polish cavalry (who were themselves a match for the Teutonic Knights) (IOTL, the Lithuanian cavalry fail to lure von Wallenrode's cavalry away with their feigned retreat, but return later to deal a death blow to the Teutonic left(?) flank)

Notes:
-Ulrich wasn't half as capable as his brother, Konrad. Konrad oversaw the Teutonic Order at the height of its power, and Ulrich is blamed for its downfall. Something to consider---even if they win, can Ulrich really make the most of a Teutonic victory? Or will he just blunder through the peace talks and make things worse as he did under Konrad?
-Conversion to a secular state mid-to-late-15th century---possible for the HRE to grant the Teutonic Grand Master a title (such as Grand Duchy or even Kingdom of Prussia) in the wake of a crushing Polish-Lithuanian defeat? Could an upstart Grandmaster get away with declaring a kingdom himself (my original rough draft had Ulrich's successor declaring a 'High Kingdom of Prussia' resulting in increased tensions between the Order and the Emperor)
-Future of the Teutonic state---increased German settlement in the Teutonic lands; mounting tensions between the Prussian cities and the Teutonic leadership (what happens if no Poland to fight on behalf of the Prussian Confederation against the Teutonic Order?); what happens if/when the Polish-Lithuanian Union dissolves?
 
Bump because no comments.

Really though, 120 views and no one has anything to say on this?

I really want to write a great Teutonic Order (post-1410) wank, but it's my first TL and I could really use some help nailing down the POD (so that it's the most plausible and still simple).

I need some feedback, please, even if it's just "sounds good, go ahead and write your TL".
 
Since you're asking so nicely...
Among Polish historians it is common believe, that Polish-Lithuanian defeat at Grunwald would have been very painful - but it would not be a collapse of Poland. They see the battle rather as a proof of Poland's strength (and Lithuania's too, of course) than reason for it.
Problem for the Order was the official baptism of Lithuania was politically a disaster for all wanna-be crusaders. It didn't matter whether many Lithuanians were still worshipping pagan gods or not, their rulers officially became Christians and that was what mattered for the Church. When the Order called for crusade against pagan Lithuanians and "false-convert" Jogaila, AFAIK the response they received was significantly weaker than they expected. I'd like to remind you, that at the time Poland had been Christian for centuries, even had a few saints of its own (st. Wojciech / Adalbert, st. Stanisław, st Hedwig of Silesia) so many people started to see the Polish-Lithuanian-Teutonic war as a conflict between two Christian states, not Christian crusade against pagans. Not to mention a lot of internal problems in the Order state itself ( Nikolaus von Renys did not defect without reason).
Polish-Lithuanian disaster at Grunwald is of course completely plausible. Worst case scenario? Jogaila and Vytautas die, so do many Polish knights. Very painful, there is some serious mess among Polish leaders (they need a new king, quickly)' Poland looses some territory and a lot of prestige, Polihs-Lithuanian alliance might get broken. But core Poland is still intact, Polish economy is well and rising and Poles are simpley waiting for an opportunity for a rematch. The Order, OTOH, while gaining some prestige still has problems with running out of pagans to fight. Teutonic propaganda might call Lithuanians pagans, but Polish propaganda did exactly the opposite and called the Order "false crusaders" who fight the Christians instead of spreading the faith.
 
Mario, nice! Looks good, and a very interesting direction!

Seraphim, I'm pleased that the Battle of Grunwald is at least win-able for the Order without ASB-intervention ("and thus the Flying Spaghetti Monster did smite Jogailo with his noodley appendage"). I don't want to just wank the Teutonic Order. They had -serious- internal issues, which you mentioned, and I intend to address them all---they will add lovely wrinkles of conflict and insecurity to my TL!
 
Of course the battle was winable without a divine intervention. Killing of Jogaila by von Kökeritz might be one of the best moments; without the king to coordinate the battle Polish-Lithuanian numbers might not be enough, especially if you add psychological impact of loosing the king; OTOH it is doubtful if the fightning forces would have even noticed Jogaila's death - he had only a small guard and a small pennant, not the great banner which was in the middle of the battle. Von Kökeritz probably had no idea he was about to attack the king - he simply saw a small group of Polish knights and attack its leader. But if von Jungingen found out where actually Jogaila was and attacked there with all force... Well, having only 40 knights around him Jogaila would have escaped; IOTL he almost fought von Kökeritz, because he was only a single knight. The king wouldn't have waited for over 1000 knights. Jogaila's escape (if noticed) might also cause panic or at least prevent Polish right wing from changing front to face von Jungingen's charge until Polish reserves arrived.
 
Hi,

I intending to have this battle won by the Teutons in my timeline. Still, I am not sure about the implications of this victory. So, I'm as well quite interested! :D
 
From a previous thread:

There was another pretender to the throne: Ziemowit IV of Masovia. He was a descendant of Piast, he was married to Yogaila's sister Aleksandra and he and a son. I think that most of Polish nobility at that time would prefer him to Luxemburger who had no interest in fighting against TO.

also

In the long term (past the 1650ties) I think the Order won't be a major player, simply because we do have a model for it in the Prince-Bishoprics in Germany, which lost more and more power. Of course they to a large extent was dominated by local estates, which are a weakness the Order didn't have. But you still have elements which point toward it. In OTL the East Baltic had a economy build on the production and export of cereal. The result in OTL was a growing strength of both the major landowners and of the burghers. Of course the power of the burghers was weaken with collapse of the Hansetic league as a major player, this allowed the Sweden to break the position of the burghers of Reval (Tallinn) and the Hohenzollern Köningsberg, leaving only Danzig and Riga with a strong burgher class. With the growing influence of the local estates it's not impossible to imagine that they get increased power to elect or veto the election of local order masters. Of course that will give the order many of the same problems that PL had in OTL, but the openess of the elections may save the order until a point where we see a secularisation of church states.

More things to consider.

I'm thinking I'm going to start story-boarding in a serious way, and identify just how much I want to butterfly.

Someone made a good point in that thread that without Brandenburg-Prussia, a united Germany (as we know it IOTL) is butterflied away, leading to a modern day that looks much more like the Napoleonic Era---Britain and her overseas allies versus a strong, militant France and her 'continental system'.

Many things to consider, but I've gotten ahead of myself. I'll write up a draft and post it in the test section and post the finished TL here when I'm ready. Thanks, all!
 
Someone made a good point in that thread that without Brandenburg-Prussia, a united Germany (as we know it IOTL) is butterflied away, leading to a modern day that looks much more like the Napoleonic Era---Britain and her overseas allies versus a strong, militant France and her 'continental system'.
You're really jumping to some conclusions here with a POD in the early 15th century.
 
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