AHC/WI: Taiping Rebellion succeeds

It's difficult.

Qing's advantages
The Qing control of China was nowhere as loose as the Yuan. At least the empire did not fracture into several warlord kingdoms immediately after the the initial uprising.

During the End of Yuan rebellions, rebels under different flags set up kingdoms up and down the Yangtze River. The Mongol military machine was in the state of complete disuse, so much so that the rebels even ventured into Mongolia and set Xanadu on fire.

The same thing did not happen to the Qing. At the very least, the Confucian gentry was still loyal the Qing, so were the Mongol princes. More importantly, both of the two forces were in good enough shape that they proved capable of raising an army for the Qing Emperor.

Ideology
If the Taiping rebels wants to win, they must first adjust themselves ideologically and fight for the sympathy of the Confucian gentry. Almost all Chinese rebellions had some connection to a bizarre or unconventional religion, but all the successful ones shed off their original cultish color.

Geography
Next, they must find a good base for their Kingdom. Lower Yangtze plain has never been such a place, as it was a not an easily defensible terrain, and too close to foreign interests. The most ideal location for the Taipings was, IMO, Hunan and Hubei provinces. If they could carve out an area large enough, they could be connected to Nian Rebels and Muslim Rebels in the North, their place of origin in the South, Sichuan in the west and Lower Yantze in the east.

Hereafter
The goal was always to spread the rebellion more widely over the empire, so that the different rebel forces (Nian, Black Flags, Tiandihui, White Lotus, Muslims etc.) could work together to bring the dynasty down (before they themselves, inevitably, descend into a Civil War.)

It's doubtful that the Manchus could organize a Northern Qing (too many Manchus were caught in Chinese inland), although the Mongols might be able to. My guess is that if the Qing or the Russians took Manchuria, Inner and Outer Mongolia, and Xinjiang, the Taiping would still lay claim to them and try to take them, just to make sure that the Qing was officially and completely dead.

Inclusiveness
In conclusion, winning, by the definition of "Unifying the realm again after defeating the Qing", meant that the Taiping must be extraordinarily inclusive and assimilating. They must be able to tolerate and absorb firstly the Confucian gentry and ideology, be actively recruiting them into the rebel ranks; and secondly different rebel factions and surrendered Qing mandarins; and thirdly the non-Chinese princedoms in Xinjiang, Mongolia and Manchuria.

This pretty much required the Taipings to be the antithesis of its OTL self, which could not even sort out their own theological differences.

Aftermath
What China looks like at the end of ATL Taiping wars is to anybody's guess. With the technological conditions of that era, it's doubtful that they could implement so many reforms they claimed that they would implement. But if the important ones (land and opium) were carried out, they Taiping could easily outperform the Qing in some areas.

The death toll might be smaller than OTL, consider how much killing has been done by the Qing, rather than Taiping, troops.
 
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RE: Britain conquering China, part of the reason they supported the Qing was the fear that if imperial order in China collapsed, they would have a moral duty to restore it through conquest. Would be interesting to see if they held themselves to it.

And pancakes is right about the possibility of moderating the crazier parts of the Taiping state; Hong Xiuquan's cousin, Hong Rengan, was much more pragmatic than the Heavenly King. He put Confucius back on the Taiping examinations, for instance, and drew up plans for modernization with the help of Westerners, building bridges with both the gentry and the Europeans. OTL, it ended up being too little too late, but a more successful Hong Rengan is going to make the Heavenly Kingdom much stronger in the struggle for China proper.

As a point of fact, the prohibition on Opium was not enforced at all; the Taiping bought just as much opium as the imperials (to the point that Harry Parkes remarked that all they want are Arms and Opium! Arms and Opium! Arms and Opium!), and the actual opium dealers didn't care either way.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Stability is in the eye of the beholder, but given a Taiping conflict that

640px-Taiping2.PNG

Stability is in the eye of the beholder, but given a Taiping conflict that continues well into the 1860s and the British and French are distracted (longer Crimean war, whatever;)), does some sort of north China-south China split (South/Taiping and North/Quing?) and, presumably, more autonomy on the various frontiers, seem possible?

Thanks.

Best,
 
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The Taiping probably could hold south China alright (there were rebellions in Guizhou and Yunnan, but nobody cares about Guizhou and Yunnan); there are other Hakka communities scattered all over Guangdong and Fujian, and there were numerous anti-Qing secret societies who had just rebelled against the Qing, who could be useful allies to the Taiping.

The Taiping would make an offensive north after consolidating their hold on the Yangtze and the deep south; linking the north and the south is the Grand Canal; that vertical region is under the control of the horse mounted Nian rebels, who did ally with the Taiping on occasion.
rebelmap.jpg


The only territory the Qing can count on holding from the various rebellions is Mongolia and Manchuria, which would be highly vulnerable to Russian predation. The Taiping would probably walk away with the lion's share of China proper, taking the Yangtze, the Grand Canal, the Yellow River, and the Pearl River. The muslim revolt in Gansu and Shaanxi was a chaotic affair, so the Qing might be able to salvage the situation in the northeast, but the southwest, where the Miao in Guizhou and the muslims in Yunnan are rebelling is going to be beyond them. You might get a Northern Qing dynasty ruling Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang, but it will by then cease to be China.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Interesting ... many thanks

Interesting ... many thanks.

If there was an "internal" border (the Huaihe River-Qin Mountains?) with the Taiping more or less controlling the Yangtze and tributaries, I suppose, and the Ming the Yellow River basin, do you see it as possibly stabilizing in the 1860s and afterwards? Is there a potential third bloc (Red Turbans or their sucessors?) in southeastern China, in the Pearl River basin?

Say the Russians are pre-occupied with chunks of the northeast and northwest, and the French and British with various coastal enclaves; any liklihood the Northern (Ming), Central (Taiping), and Southern (dunno - Red Turbans 2.0?) would stabilize into something less than "the Empire" and more than the Warlord Era come early?

Not trying to beat up on China, but using (say) Latin America after independence as a model, is it possible 2-3 more geographically limited polities could transition into something resembling stable nation-states that could either a) fight off the Europeans, or b) play off the various European powers without simply becoming proxies?

Or are three proxy states the most likely outcome of any such division?

Best,
 
Interesting ... many thanks.

If there was an "internal" border (the Huaihe River-Qin Mountains?) with the Taiping more or less controlling the Yangtze and tributaries, I suppose, and the Ming the Yellow River basin, do you see it as possibly stabilizing in the 1860s and afterwards? Is there a potential third bloc (Red Turbans or their sucessors?) in southeastern China, in the Pearl River basin?

Say the Russians are pre-occupied with chunks of the northeast and northwest, and the French and British with various coastal enclaves; any liklihood the Northern (Ming), Central (Taiping), and Southern (dunno - Red Turbans 2.0?) would stabilize into something less than "the Empire" and more than the Warlord Era come early?

Not trying to beat up on China, but using (say) Latin America after independence as a model, is it possible 2-3 more geographically limited polities could transition into something resembling stable nation-states that could either a) fight off the Europeans, or b) play off the various European powers without simply becoming proxies?

Or are three proxy states the most likely outcome of any such division?

Best,

I think the difficulty with breaking up China is the fact that it has significant cultural/linguistic homogeneity, and always tends to reconstitute itself. I mean the peripheral bits can float away but I'm not sure the core Chinese areas can split up into multiple states.

As to getting them to resemble stable states, a lot depends on who's leading them- they'd have to have the patience and wherewithal to painstakingly rebuild administrative infrastructure as well as educate a new group officials. Frankly, it's easier to just run around with a band of armed followers and exploit people.

That said, the distinctly unworldly Hong Xiuquan certainly can't be expected to be interested in rebuilding his devastated kingdom but Hong Rengan might potentially be able to pull it off (if he can get the acquiescence of other Taiping leaders).

As to preventing them becoming proxies- European military superiority makes them influencing things somewhat inevitable. That said, you can tweak exactly what level of influence they possess- if you can distract the Europeans elsewhere (like the longer Crimean War suggested above) whilst the new Chinese states consolidate then the Chinese can deal with the Westerners from a position of relative strength.
 
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