AHC/WI: Successful Decembrist Revolt

In December of 1825, when Tsar Nicholas I inherited the throne of Russia, a small liberal faction of the Russian army rose up in revolt against his reactionary rule. Their uprising was crushed IOTL, but what if it hadn’t been? Could it have spread to more of the army? If it had been successful, would Nicholas have been deposed or forced to accept concessions?
 
The main aim of the Decembrists was to replace Nicholas with his allegedly more liberal brother, Konstantin Pavlovich, who at the time and for nine years more would be governor of Poland. The dispute arose from a contrived succession after Alexander I's somewhat premature death.
Konstantin, however, declined to support the Decembrists. My pet theory is that he favoured stability over a civil war.
So, i think the best PoD for this would be Konstantin deciding to ditch Poland for the main Russian throne, instead of declining it in the period between Alexander's death and Nicholas' coronation. But this would butterfly away the Decembrist Revolt outright, and would also require a personally different Konstantin.
 
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