AHC/WI: Successful 'Conspiracy of the Machetes'?

I searched and found surprisingly little on this - well, not all that surprising considering how unlikely to succeed the plot proved from the start - so I thought I'd make it a challenge.

With the bare minimum of additional (from OTL) weapons, money, and personnel your challenge is to describe the absolute best case scenario for the conspirators and the subsequent consequences of their victory.

Ideally, this includes the initiation of a city wide riot-turned-revolt, the expulsion of the peninsulares from the city, the taking of an arsenal, the establishment of a temporary congress to develop terms, and the launching of a colony-wide resistance movement that can gain the attention and support of some European power or several.

Anyway, I'll let you goddamn beautiful geniuses discuss.

Thanks, all.
 
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Perhaps Aguirre doesn't lose his nerve and report it to the authorities. But it's one thing to do what all they were planning on doing, another thing to keep Mexico independent, expel the peninsulares etc. They're gonna need outside help for that. And in 1799, the most reasonable ally would be either revolutionary France or the young United States. France is kinda busy fighting everyone in Europe, and IDK if the U.S. would risk getting involved, especially considering this is pre-Louisiana purchase
 
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