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In the early 1900s Subic Bay and Pearl Harbor were competing to become major forward operating bases of the USN. President Theodore Roosevelt was in favor of Subic Bay, but decided to focus on Pearl Harbor after receiving push-back from civilian and military officials. Further development of Subic Bay was put on hold until the outbreak of World War I before being halted by the passage of the Washington Naval Treaty in 1922, which restricted construction of bases in the Western Pacific. Development of the base didn't begin again until just before World War II, when it was almost totally destroyed. By the late 1950s Subic Bay was being developed as a major naval base.
What if the role of Subic Bay and Pearl Harbor had been reversed, with Subic Bay being developed as the forward base for the Pacific Fleet? Would Imperial Japan risk war with the United States given the larger American military presence in the Philippines?