Sardinia had been a territory of the Kingdom of Aragon since 1323, and, with the union of Aragon with Castile in 1469, part of the new kingdom of Spain. During the period of Aragonese and later Spanish rule, Sardinian culture adopted some new Spanish traditions and customs, bringing the island closer to the mainland. Spain lost Sardinia in 1708, after the War of Spanish Succession. Spain then reconquered the island for a brief period of time before being defeated by the Quadruple Alliance. Spain lost the island permanently with the Treaty of London in 1718, in which the island was awarded to the House of Savoy.

However, what if Spain had somehow retained Sardinia? Perhaps Spain manages to escape the War of Spanish Succession with its rule over Sardinia intact, or Spain reaches a limited victory in the War of the Quadruple Alliance, where the Quadruple Alliance would have to recognize Spain's reconquest of the island.

How would this affect Spanish history? Could Spain realistically retain Sardinia up to the present day? What about Italian unification? Would the House of Savoy take more of an interest in Corsica as a result? How would this affect the cultural and linguistic identity of Sardinia as a whole?
 
After the War of the Spanish Succession, the House of Savoy was awarded Sicily, and the Austrian Hapsburgs were given Sardinia. They then swapped the islands. Though I've read up on the episode, I'm still not sure why, but I think the Savoyards found Sicily to be ungovernable.

If Sardinia remains with Spain, Sicily remains with Savoy. Now there are separate issues depending if the POD is that the Bourbons are in a stronger diplomatic position and retain a little more territory than IOTL (Sardinia), or if when the peace is negotiated they get Sardinia and give up something equivalent elsewhere.

In the first scenario, the Bourbons gain Sardinia and the allies don't gain any compensating territories. Savoy is still awarded Sicily. If they swap it later, it will probably be for a few towns in Lombardy. This pretty much affects nothing until the French Revolution. There is a small issue in that possession of either Sardinia and Sicily allows the Count of Savoy to call himself a King, and without either island he can't do that, so the Holy Roman Empire has to come up with some important title for him. When the French Revolution happens, there is no place for the Count of Savoy to flee too, and they might be left out of the 1815 Vienna settlement entirely, and THAT would raise butterflies, especially depending on what happens with Piedmont and Genoa.

In the second scenario we could see in addition Savoy or Austria taking a part of France, and then France taking a Spanish colony, most likely Santo Domingo or Texas. That would raise butterflies. If the part of France is a few fortresses in the northeast, which is most likely, there is no effect on Italy, but one or two places, maybe Calais and Lille, wind up in Belgium and not France. France then loses its additional American territory either in 1762 or during the French Revolutionary Wars.

As for Sardinia itself, it remains a backwater, just a Spanish speaking one. It will probably side with the Nationalists during the civil war. Sardinia's historical importance, other than as a place to exile dissidents, was to boost the status of the House of Savoy and give them a place to flee to during the Napoleonic Wars.
 
After the War of the Spanish Succession, the House of Savoy was awarded Sicily, and the Austrian Hapsburgs were given Sardinia. They then swapped the islands. Though I've read up on the episode, I'm still not sure why, but I think the Savoyards found Sicily to be ungovernable.

If Sardinia remains with Spain, Sicily remains with Savoy. Now there are separate issues depending if the POD is that the Bourbons are in a stronger diplomatic position and retain a little more territory than IOTL (Sardinia), or if when the peace is negotiated they get Sardinia and give up something equivalent elsewhere.

In the first scenario, the Bourbons gain Sardinia and the allies don't gain any compensating territories. Savoy is still awarded Sicily. If they swap it later, it will probably be for a few towns in Lombardy. This pretty much affects nothing until the French Revolution. There is a small issue in that possession of either Sardinia and Sicily allows the Count of Savoy to call himself a King, and without either island he can't do that, so the Holy Roman Empire has to come up with some important title for him. When the French Revolution happens, there is no place for the Count of Savoy to flee too, and they might be left out of the 1815 Vienna settlement entirely, and THAT would raise butterflies, especially depending on what happens with Piedmont and Genoa.

In the second scenario we could see in addition Savoy or Austria taking a part of France, and then France taking a Spanish colony, most likely Santo Domingo or Texas. That would raise butterflies. If the part of France is a few fortresses in the northeast, which is most likely, there is no effect on Italy, but one or two places, maybe Calais and Lille, wind up in Belgium and not France. France then loses its additional American territory either in 1762 or during the French Revolutionary Wars.

As for Sardinia itself, it remains a backwater, just a Spanish speaking one. It will probably side with the Nationalists during the civil war. Sardinia's historical importance, other than as a place to exile dissidents, was to boost the status of the House of Savoy and give them a place to flee to during the Napoleonic Wars.

If I recall correctly, Savoy couldn't defend Sicily and so were pressured into swapping it for Sardinia and giving Sicily to Austria due to the Spanish invasion in the War of Quadruple Alliance (1717-1720). They acquired it as their spoils at the insistence of the Brits to curtail Austria's new position in Italy. It was Austria the attacked Spanish troops after Messina fell to them, the Duke of Savoy continued policies of playing one block against another to see who gave him the most benefit, eventually siding with the alliance.

Back to the main question, Sardinia is of strategic importance as it allows for easier power projection into Italy by Spain. But it was really french & british diplomats that drove the peace of utretch and the allies pretty much had to accept the peace fait accompli when the brits packed up ship, the French offer Sardinia as compensation to the wittlesbachs in the initial treaty as it was assumed Austria was going to keep Bavaria.

To accomplish scenario a, you'd need for Charles VI to keep fighting long enough for Sardinia to fall back into Spanish hands and have some imperial territory occupied before signing the treaty of baden-rastatt, not the low countries region though (this might cause problems with the brits, so the french might try avoiding campaigning in that area).

To accomplish scenario b, we'd need better performance by the savoyards around when Eugene moved the Austrian army to take Toulon in S/eastern France. If they're able to establish a foothold and maintain it during the war, Savoy may gain some territory there and maybe be forced to return their gains in Milan (that got them to switch to the alliance from the Bourbon side). Then later the French "take Sardinia" as compensation for losses which is then exchanged for territory in the wider world leading to Spanish re-acquisition of Sardinia. It'd have to be timed just right to overcome British objections.

On the impact on Spanish history, not really sure. On Italian re-unification, I'm not quite sure. Piedmont was more important, Sardinia just offered the title of King and that's about it as far as I'm aware. It'll just add another set of irredentist & nationalistic claims to Italy when it forms and they'll look for an opportunity to take it when they can.
 
Last edited:
In the second scenario we could see in addition Savoy or Austria taking a part of France, and then France taking a Spanish colony, most likely Santo Domingo or Texas. That would raise butterflies.

I would say in this case, Santo Domingo is the much more likely option here. France never held much of an interest in colonizing Texas, with the exception of a single fort that lasted for three years. In addition, after Spanish colonization of the region, it became clear that Texas did not hold nearly as much colonial value as Santo Domingo. In contrast, France was very much interested in ruling over a unified Hispaniola, which it actually accomplished during the French Revolutionary Wars until it was returned to Spanish rule in 1809.

So if France does take Santo Domingo as compensation for small territorial losses in Europe, it will most likely hold onto it until the Seven Years' War or the French Revolutionary Wars. If it is lost in the Seven Years' War, we'll have a British colony in Santo Domingo until the ARW, when it is returned to Spain. Then the history of Santo Domingo and the Dominican Republic goes fairly similar to OTL, though the British period may have an interesting legacy. If France holds onto it until the French Revolutionary Wars, the colony is either conquered by the newly independent Haiti or given back to Spain after the wars. If Haiti unifies Hispaniola with the predominantly Spanish-speaking (though there would undoubtedly be more French-speakers than in OTL) eastern two-thirds of the island so soon after its independence, it could have some significant butterflies on the history of Hispaniola.

It'd have to be timed just right to overcome British objections.

Speaking of the British, the British may have sought to establish a protectorate in Sardinia if they could take it from Spain during the American Revolutionary War (which I'm fairly sure would still happen, unless there are some serious butterflies in North America somehow), similar to their ambitions with the short-lived Corsican Republic. Of course, if Britain still loses the ARW, they fail. On a related note, Spain keeping Sardinia puts the British colony of Menorca (one of their own prizes from the War of Spanish Succession until it it was regained by Spain after the ARW) in an interesting place, having the Spanish, with every intention of taking it back, on both sides of the sea from it.
 
I would say in this case, Santo Domingo is the much more likely option here. France never held much of an interest in colonizing Texas, with the exception of a single fort that lasted for three years. In addition, after Spanish colonization of the region, it became clear that Texas did not hold nearly as much colonial value as Santo Domingo. In contrast, France was very much interested in ruling over a unified Hispaniola, which it actually accomplished during the French Revolutionary Wars until it was returned to Spanish rule in 1809.

So if France does take Santo Domingo as compensation for small territorial losses in Europe, it will most likely hold onto it until the Seven Years' War or the French Revolutionary Wars. If it is lost in the Seven Years' War, we'll have a British colony in Santo Domingo until the ARW, when it is returned to Spain. Then the history of Santo Domingo and the Dominican Republic goes fairly similar to OTL, though the British period may have an interesting legacy. If France holds onto it until the French Revolutionary Wars, the colony is either conquered by the newly independent Haiti or given back to Spain after the wars. If Haiti unifies Hispaniola with the predominantly Spanish-speaking (though there would undoubtedly be more French-speakers than in OTL) eastern two-thirds of the island so soon after its independence, it could have some significant butterflies on the history of Hispaniola.



Speaking of the British, the British may have sought to establish a protectorate in Sardinia if they could take it from Spain during the American Revolutionary War (which I'm fairly sure would still happen, unless there are some serious butterflies in North America somehow), similar to their ambitions with the short-lived Corsican Republic. Of course, if Britain still loses the ARW, they fail. On a related note, Spain keeping Sardinia puts the British colony of Menorca (one of their own prizes from the War of Spanish Succession until it it was regained by Spain after the ARW) in an interesting place, having the Spanish, with every intention of taking it back, on both sides of the sea from it.

Hmm.. I completely forgot about Minorca...
 
So if France does take Santo Domingo as compensation for small territorial losses in Europe, it will most likely hold onto it until the Seven Years' War or the French Revolutionary Wars. If it is lost in the Seven Years' War, we'll have a British colony in Santo Domingo until the ARW, when it is returned to Spain. Then the history of Santo Domingo and the Dominican Republic goes fairly similar to OTL, though the British period may have an interesting legacy. If France holds onto it until the French Revolutionary Wars, the colony is either conquered by the newly independent Haiti or given back to Spain after the wars. If Haiti unifies Hispaniola with the predominantly Spanish-speaking (though there would undoubtedly be more French-speakers than in OTL) eastern two-thirds of the island so soon after its independence, it could have some significant butterflies on the history of Hispaniola.

The population of the Spanish Santo Domingo was very small - in 1790 OTL, while there were about 500 000 people in Saint-Domingue, there were only about 40-50 000 in Santo Domingo. If France acquires it in 1720 or so, by the end of the century it probably will no longer be predominantly hispanophone.
 
If the Spanish Bourbons still take the Two Sicilies from the Hapbsburgs in 1734 then I think the most likely outcome that it becomes a possession of the Two Sicilies Branch of the House of Bourbon rather than the Spanish branch. Would that significantly alter the balance of power in Italy between the House of Savoy and the Sicilian House of Bourbon?

The second most likely outcome is that the Spanish Bourbons hold onto it to give themselves a base closer to the central Mediterranean. I don't know if that would alter the overall history of Europe much before 1900.

The only military thing I can think of is that it would help the British get convoys to Malta via Gibraltar a bit more easily with the Italians unable to use it as an air base.

When the cheap flights make Mediterranean beach holidays affordable for north Europeans a Spanish Sardinia might be developed as a tourist destination more than Italian Sardinia has been. Does anyone know if having the Peseta instead of the Lira as its currency would help or hinder in that regard?
 
I hadn't thought of the Sicilian Bourbons getting the island, so we are pretty much down to the House of Savoy not having a large island as the only effect.
 
I hadn't thought of the Sicilian Bourbons getting the island, so we are pretty much down to the House of Savoy not having a large island as the only effect.

Having a Sicilian Sardinia would give the Two Sicilies a larger power base, which could give them the edge they need over the House of Savoy come the Risorgimento.

However, for the sake of this thread, let's assume the Spanish are able to hold onto Sardinia themselves, keeping it out of the hands of any Italian state.
 
Having a Sicilian Sardinia would give the Two Sicilies a larger power base, which could give them the edge they need over the House of Savoy come the Risorgimento.
The Bourbons of Naples had enough troubles in governing Sicily, which was very close. If they get Sardinia too, it would not be a bonus: it would just add another independentist trouble to the Sicilian ones.

In any case at Utrecht, the duke of Savoy would have swapped without any hesitation Sicily for Lombardy, even if Lombardy did not have a regal crown attached. In 1720, they were more or less forced to swap Sicily for Sardinia. From the POV of Italy, it would have certainly be more interesting to have Savoy, Piedmont and Sicily under the same crown for 150 years before the unification period arrived. The population of Sardinia was much lower than the Sicilian one, and the potential revenues from Sicily certainly dwarfed what they got from Sardinia.
 
Going to shift gears back to North America for a bit:

The population of the Spanish Santo Domingo was very small - in 1790 OTL, while there were about 500 000 people in Saint-Domingue, there were only about 40-50 000 in Santo Domingo. If France acquires it in 1720 or so, by the end of the century it probably will no longer be predominantly hispanophone.

So, any kind of Dominican Republic is butterflied away into nothing more than a distant fantasy of eastern Haiti's Spanish-speaking minority?
 
Going to shift gears back to North America for a bit:



So, any kind of Dominican Republic is butterflied away into nothing more than a distant fantasy of eastern Haiti's Spanish-speaking minority?

I would think so. A lot of French settlers would have arrived and most likely, some of the Spanish settlers would have assimilated by the end of the century in order to climb the social ladder.
 
I wonder if the notorious casu marzu ('rotten cheese' with live maggots) would have ever gotten produced or would it been butterflied away via Spain keeping Sardinia?
 
Top