AHC/WI: Spain joins the Axis?

Gan

Banned
What would it take for Spain to join the Axis at least by the end of 1940?

What would their goals in the war be? Can they overrun the British forces in Gibraltar? Would they attempt/be able to grab some land from France? Would they try to unite the Iberian Peninsula?

How would their participation of the war affect the war itself? How much of a boon would they be to the Axis, and how much will it burden the Allies in retaking Europe? How would Spain be perceived and treated in the post-war world?
 

Deleted member 1487

On their own? Britain nearly collapsing so they could pull an Italy and get what they wanted on the cheap.
More realistically however they would probably have to be invaded by Germany during Operation Felix, not being attacked, just moved into by German forces to get at Gibraltar. Franco could do nothing but stand aside and let it happen, while the British probably blame him for doing nothing, even if he supposedly was telling them that a German invasion was not his doing. Of course there is little the British can do in 1940 against that, Gibraltar falls, the British probably will have to wait until 1941 or later to mount a move against the Canaries and probably move on the Azores out of fear Portugal would switch sides. Then Malta falls due to lack of supplies during early 1941.

The only way this happens though is if Hitler doesn't opt for Barbarossa and instead is going with a Mediterranean strategy. So the rest of the war is very different.

The British are going to put SOE into Spain, which is going to be in famine without food imports that are now cut off. Hitler would see to either take Stalin up on his offer for joining the Axis to get the promised extra food or do something to buy extra from Stalin. Hard to say for sure really because of all the butterflies.
 
After negotiating with Franco Hitler famously said something along the lines of "I would rather have three of my teeth pulled than sit down and deal with that man again." The Spanish Civil War had destroyed much of Spain and Franco feared that joining the Axis would reopen the just stitched up wounds. So he demanded far more than the Germans were willing to give, knowing that this would allow him to keep his neutrality.

Someone other than Franco would have to take command for this to happen, but of course it is possible that without Franco the Nationalists could have lost the war.
 
After negotiating with Franco Hitler famously said something along the lines of "I would rather have three of my teeth pulled than sit down and deal with that man again." The Spanish Civil War had destroyed much of Spain and Franco feared that joining the Axis would reopen the just stitched up wounds. So he demanded far more than the Germans were willing to give, knowing that this would allow him to keep his neutrality.

I wasn't aware Franco actually issued a list. What were the demands?
 
I wasn't aware Franco actually issued a list. What were the demands?

For starters to replace all the oil and grain Spain was buying in South America and USA with German deliveries. I believe extensive revisions of Morrocan and Algerian borders in favor of Spain. Extensive help with arming of the Spanish forces. And very limited actual effective contribution of Spain to the Axis war effort.
 
For starters to replace all the oil and grain Spain was buying in South America and USA with German deliveries. I believe extensive revisions of Morrocan and Algerian borders in favor of Spain. Extensive help with arming of the Spanish forces. And very limited actual effective contribution of Spain to the Axis war effort.
Pretty much. He wanted much of North Africa and Germany to fund his economy, but didn't want to do much to fight. Which makes sense, since the demands were basically his way to politely telling Germany to go fly a kite.
 
OTL Per "Spaniards and Nazi Germany: Collaboration in the New Order":

Franco sent his chief of staff Jorge Vigon to discuss with Hitler Spain's role going forward.
He arrived June 10th but didn't meet with hum until June 16th to sort out Spain's role in the new order of things and maybe join in if the price was right. Hitler only met with him for 45 minutes and really wasn't interested in Spain joining in at that time.

So as a POD lets say Hitler meets with him, is enthusiastic and gives Vigon some promises about what he might do for Spain in the future in exchange for Spain entering the war.

I could then see one of two things happening to get Spain in.

1) British intelligence picks up on this diplomatic warmth and some advanced Spanish preparations for war, stockpiling supplies, etc. (even if the Spanish would never get around to actually declaring war) and preemptively invades the Canary Islands forcing Spain in the war.

2) France continues to fight on (no Vichy). Hitler agrees to give Spain big things: an occupation zone in Southern France, all of Morocco, etc... to join in. Hitler is forced to adopt a med strategy and is able to import enough grain and oil form Soviet Union to keep Spain supplied.

Otherwise, with Vichy and Spain neutral and friendly and available for economic exploitation Hitler has what he needs which is that this region is quiet and compliant when he invades the Soviet Union.
 
Spanish participation in the war would make life harder for the British in 1940-42, but it doesn't win the war for the Axis unless some other things change.

There is a window between June and September 1940 when the war appears to be over apart from negotiating the peace treaty. That's what made Mussolini join the war and if Franco had done the same he would soon regret. It is quite likely that he would also be dead by the end of 1945.

The main active contribution Spain can make to the war is to close the Strait of Gibraltar with the coast artillery they have in southern Spain. That means Malta can only be supplied from Alexandria and when that route is also cut off the island falls. That would probably be in the first half of 1942.

However, just as important is Spain's location. It would give the Germans valuable bases for the Battle of the Atlantic.

-The approaches to Cadiz and Ferrol were harder to patrol than the Biscay ports so it would be easier for Axis surface warships, U-boats and blockade runners to get in and out.
-The Fw200s would be able to fly a few hundred miles further west.
-The long-range U-boats operating in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans would have their transit times cut by a few days.
-It would be harder for the RAF to bomb German heavy warships operating from Cadiz than Brest. Though there is the possibility of Pearl Harbour style air raids by the Royal Navy (and USN from 1942). Therefore the Germans would use Cadiz as a forward base and make Cartagena their facility for major repairs. Spain's Mediterranean coast would be impossible for the RN to attack with aircraft carriers before the end of 1942 and Bomber Command would have to fly over hundreds of miles of mainland Spain to reach it so the air defences would have plenty of warning.

Thus the German forces sink more WAllied merchant shipping, but not enough to alter the result of the war. If it was combined with the Germans having a stronger surface navy and a larger Maritime Luftwaffe that might be different. Possession of these bases might make Hitler accept the Kreigsmarine's request for resources to build more U-boats with, but what is Germany going to make less of to compensate? The Germans might be able to give the Spanish money and technical assistance so that more aircraft, surface warships and submarines can be built in Spain. However, that would not be enough to change the result of the war either.

Meanwhile the British occupy the Canary Islands in 1940.

The fall of Malta in the first half of 1942 is not early enough to help Rommel break through to the Suez Canal and even it he does events at the other end of the Mediterranean prevent its exploitation.

The WAllies still land in Morocco at the end of 1942. They occupy the Spanish Sahara and Spanish Morocco before pushing on to the border of Algeria and Tunis not much later than they reach it in the real world. They won't be able to send merchant shipping through the Strait of Gibraltar, but there is a railway that runs from Casablanca to Algiers and Tunis, which can be used to supply the WAllied land and air forces. Malta's surrender will make it easier for the Italians to supply the Axis forces in Tunisia and losses of Axis transport aircraft are going to be considerably reduced. However, that might be good for the WAllies in the longer term because Hitler and Mussolini might send more troops to Tunisia.

I think Tunisia would still be in WAllied hands by the middle of 1943 and the invasions of Sicily and mainland Italy would not be delayed. D-Day and the invasion of Southern France would still happen and at the same time.

The Balearics would be taken as a prelude to the invasion of southern France, if not earlier. Mainland Spain would be bypassed and left to "wither on the vine". Franco would start surrender negotiations himself or there would be a coup like the one that deposed Mussolini. Spain would change sides between early 1943 or the middle of 1944.
 
Last edited:
Ask Napoleon what happened when he put troops into an allied Spain.

Franco damn well knew what could happen the moment German troops crossed the border "to support" his regime against Allied retaliation of his joining the Axis. Hence his demands to Hitler.

Pity Mussolini couldn't see that far ahead.
 
After negotiating with Franco Hitler famously said something along the lines of "I would rather have three of my teeth pulled than sit down and deal with that man again." The Spanish Civil War had destroyed much of Spain and Franco feared that joining the Axis would reopen the just stitched up wounds. So he demanded far more than the Germans were willing to give, knowing that this would allow him to keep his neutrality.

Someone other than Franco would have to take command for this to happen, but of course it is possible that without Franco the Nationalists could have lost the war.

Franco wanted to join right after France fell, but Hitler wasn't interested in sharing spoils until the RAF defeated the Luftwaffe over British skies.

Hitler had opposition he didn't know he had. Admiral Canaris had helped Franco come to power, but when he saw what the Nazis were doing in Poland he turned against them. When Hitler sent him to meet with Franco beforehand, Canaris would "let slip" that it might actually be in Spain's best interest to stay out. This was no doubt buttressed by the RAF's performance against the Luftwaffe, and probably encouraged Franco to make the exorbitant demands. Even if the RAF didn't prevent a successful sea mammal, this is one area where many do owe much to few. Hitler caught on to what Canaris was doing shortly after the bomb plot, by which time the war was as good as lost.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Keep in mind the role of the Catholic Church, upon whom Franco's entire support base other then the Falange rested on. He could not afford to piss off the church, and the church was not pleased at all with the war nor with the treatment of Jews, going as far as to hide some in the Vatican.

I don't think Franco in 1940 is secure enough in power to go away from his wartime footing. He cannot piss off his coalition.

That is not even getting to the economic shambles that was Spain. A blockade would kill the country, and Germany would not be able to replace what was lost. Spain would not join the war unless Britain was one day away from surrendering and they had the assurances of Hitler that they could keep Gibraltar and more of North Africa.
 
Top