AHC/WI: Soviets back a Communist Coup/Revolution in Iran during the 1970s

Instead of letting an Islamist revolution just happen, could the USSR pull off a successful coup/revolution that puts the Communists in power? Who would they support? And can they pull it off?

And if they do so how does this affect Iran? What does the US do? Would the Soviets need to go to war in Afghanistan? And what happens to the Iranian Islamists?
 
The MEK ?

Most likely outcome: the shadow of me + my bicycle ends up flash-burnt onto my parents driveway slab. No way is Reagan going to let the USSR flip Iran, and given how close we came to WWIII anyway...
 
Holy shit you live in Iran?

I’d imagine Reagan. would fund an insurgency there

No I live in the U.S. ; and at the time only a few miles from a primary and various secondary targets.

Reagan would probably give direct military support to a counterinsurgency, and sooner than later it'd escalate.
 
It wouldn't be MEK, it'd be Tudeh if the Soviets were to pick a horse to back. Getting Tudeh into power would be tough, but not completely out of the realm of possibility- they had at least some support among members of the Iranian military right up until the 1983 purge, most prominently this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahram_Afzali

As for the countermeasures the US would take, I think supporting an Afghanistan-style insurgency would certainly happen. I do think it'd be harder because you can't just ship in Saudi guys like they could in Afghanistan, it'd have to be purely homegrown. I also think Tudeh in power wouldn't be nearly as weak domestically as the PDPA was in Afghanistan.

The real bad news for the Iranian people is that Christmas is going to come early for Saddam and Uncle Sam is going to fill his stockings with more weapons than he's going to know what to do with. The inevitable alternate Iran-Iraq was is going to be even more ugly than it already was...
 
It wouldn't be MEK, it'd be Tudeh if the Soviets were to pick a horse to back. Getting Tudeh into power would be tough, but not completely out of the realm of possibility- they had at least some support among members of the Iranian military right up until the 1983 purge, most prominently this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahram_Afzali

As for the countermeasures the US would take, I think supporting an Afghanistan-style insurgency would certainly happen. I do think it'd be harder because you can't just ship in Saudi guys like they could in Afghanistan, it'd have to be purely homegrown. I also think Tudeh in power wouldn't be nearly as weak domestically as the PDPA was in Afghanistan.

The real bad news for the Iranian people is that Christmas is going to come early for Saddam and Uncle Sam is going to fill his stockings with more weapons than he's going to know what to do with. The inevitable alternate Iran-Iraq was is going to be even more ugly than it already was...

Without a Shi’a version of Saudi Arabia it really isn’t going to be as strong. Though I will agree that Saddam is definitely going to find a way to milk an opportunity from this. Maybe Pakistan too since it borders Iran.
 
Without a Shi’a version of Saudi Arabia it really isn’t going to be as strong. Though I will agree that Saddam is definitely going to find a way to milk an opportunity from this. Maybe Pakistan too since it borders Iran.

True but Pakistan intervening in any significant numbers against Tudeh Iran is going to run a major risk- if Soviet troops are there that runs the risk of provoking the Soviets into attacking them from Tajikistan, and remember India is still basically Soviet-aligned at this point.
 
True but Pakistan intervening in any significant numbers against Tudeh Iran is going to run a major risk- if Soviet troops are there that runs the risk of provoking the Soviets into attacking them from Tajikistan, and remember India is still basically Soviet-aligned at this point.

I was also thinking about how Afghanistan is going to respond to this. Does the war even happen?
 
I was also thinking about how Afghanistan is going to respond to this. Does the war even happen?

Iran would be much more valuable to the Soviets than Afghanistan (and Brezhnev only sent troops into Afghanistan reluctantly), so maybe ITTL they stay out of it and focus all their efforts on helping Tudeh. That leaves Hafizullah Amin in power who the Soviets killed because they feared he was gravitating towards the US, so maybe instead of funding mujahideen there the US just makes a deal with Amin to help them in Iran.
 
Iran would be much more valuable to the Soviets than Afghanistan (and Brezhnev only sent troops into Afghanistan reluctantly), so maybe ITTL they stay out of it and focus all their efforts on helping Tudeh. That leaves Hafizullah Amin in power who the Soviets killed because they feared he was gravitating towards the US, so maybe instead of funding mujahideen there the US just makes a deal with Amin to help them in Iran.

I don’t know if the Afghans want to get involved in that. It’s not like they have anything at stake there.
 
Just something everyone should know: The reason Iran didn't go communist was because of fear of them becoming a Soviet puppet. You want a Communist Iran? Find a way to make sure Islamists don't get a lot of support, which requires a 1940s PoD.
 
The MEK ?

Most likely outcome: the shadow of me + my bicycle ends up flash-burnt onto my parents driveway slab. No way is Reagan going to let the USSR flip Iran, and given how close we came to WWIII anyway...
Carter... President Carter administration would probably be the best time since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to keep the regime loyal & communist to the USSR....
 
Just something everyone should know: The reason Iran didn't go communist was because of fear of them becoming a Soviet puppet. You want a Communist Iran? Find a way to make sure Islamists don't get a lot of support, which requires a 1940s PoD.

Maybe have the USSR find and support resistance groups?
 
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