AHC/WI: Soviet Union breakup results in war

As far as breakups of authoritarian regimes go, the Soviet Union's breakup was mostly peaceful with no major wars breaking out between the separatist states.

Whatever violence there was in the break up was restricted to Central Asia and the Caucasus. In chronological order...
  • 9 April 1989 in which 21 anti-Soviet demonstrators in Georgia were massacred by the Red Army
  • the 1990 'Black January' event in Azerbaijan in which the Red Army violently cracked down on Azerbaijani nationalists resulting in the deaths of a estimated 300 civilians
  • Anti-Armenian riots in Tajikistan in 1990
  • Riots between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz people in Kyrgyzstan in 1990

(Feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything)

While these outbreaks of violence are undeniable, they could've gotten worse. I read somewhere on Facebook that if the Soviet Union's breakup was delayed, it could've resulted in revanchist wars between the separatist states.

So, what could've happened to delay the Soviet Union's breakup to such an extent that there are full blown wars between the separatist states over territory, ethnicity, religion, etc and what would've happened in the event of such events?
 
You don't really need to delay anything. Just have the August Coup degenerate into civil war. Granted, no one, not even the US, wants to see a nuclear civil war, but the fact that Russian Civil War 2.0 didn't break out at all was nothing short of miraculous at that stage. Of course, that didn't stop the troubles menacing the Caucasus and Moldova.
 
What about if China tried to grab some territory.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/China–Tajikistan_border

When Tajikistan became independent in 1991 it inherited a section of the USSR-China frontier. In 2011, Tajikistan ratified a 1999 deal to cede 1,000 km2 (390 sq mi) of land in the Pamir Mountains to the People's Republic of China, ending a 130-year dispute. In the treaty, China also relinquished claims to over 28,000 km2 (11,000 sq mi) of Tajikistani territory.

What if the Chinese had demanded much more and attempted to use force?
 
What stopped that from happening?

A drunken man they should have hauled off to Lubyanka if the plotters hoped to succeed.

Boris_Yeltsin_19_August_1991-1.jpg


For whatever reason, they opted not to, but nailing Yeltsin would have easily triggered a more violent protest from his supporters, and a violent suppression that could spiral out of control.
 
What about if China tried to grab some territory.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/China–Tajikistan_border

When Tajikistan became independent in 1991 it inherited a section of the USSR-China frontier. In 2011, Tajikistan ratified a 1999 deal to cede 1,000 km2 (390 sq mi) of land in the Pamir Mountains to the People's Republic of China, ending a 130-year dispute. In the treaty, China also relinquished claims to over 28,000 km2 (11,000 sq mi) of Tajikistani territory.

What if the Chinese had demanded much more and attempted to use force?

China wouldn't start a war over something like that. Most likely they wouldn't just sign the treaty, it's not like they are in hurry.

A drunken man they should have hauled off to Lubyanka if they hoped to succeed.

Boris_Yeltsin_19_August_1991-1.jpg


For whatever reason, they opted not to, but nailing Yeltsin would have easily triggered a more violent protest from his supporters, and a violent suppression that could spiral out of control.

There was one point during the coup when special forces had surrounded the dacha where Yeltsin was meeting with his allies but for some reason they didn't get an order to take him out. As an interesting sidenote, the mayor of Leningrad and later mentor of Putin, Anatoly Sobchak, was also participating in that meeting. Without him, it is quite possible that the Soviet army would have also attempted to occupy Leningrad, which he was able to prevent IOTL after he negotiated with local commanders.
 
As far as breakups of authoritarian regimes go, the Soviet Union's breakup was mostly peaceful with no major wars breaking out between the separatist states.

Whatever violence there was in the break up was restricted to Central Asia and the Caucasus. In chronological order...
  • 9 April 1989 in which 21 anti-Soviet demonstrators in Georgia were massacred by the Red Army
  • the 1990 'Black January' event in Azerbaijan in which the Red Army violently cracked down on Azerbaijani nationalists resulting in the deaths of a estimated 300 civilians
  • Anti-Armenian riots in Tajikistan in 1990
  • Riots between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz people in Kyrgyzstan in 1990

(Feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything)
*cough* Moldova-Transnistria Conflict *cough*
 
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