If the Six Day war between Israel and the Arab states ends in a stalemate/ceasefire where basically the whole conflict ends in a status quo ante bellum, what happens next? Is this even possible?

Is this considered a victory for either Israel or the Arab states or both? How is Arab nationalism impacted? Since no territorial losses happen, the Arab governments don’t receive such a blow that they did in OTL? How does Israel deal with this? What other effects?
 

CalBear

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It's pretty hard to see how the Arab capitals and leaders, easpecially Nasser can manage to spin it as anything but an utter defeat. The combined forces of the entire Arab world were unable to advance 10 miles against the Israelis (and this is not the U.S. backed "hang on, we'll strip our NATO supply depots and fly you brand new Phantoms straight from the factory Israel of 1973)? This is a situation where a draw is a massive defeat for the Arabs and a major, even shocking, victory by the Israelis.
 
The Arab militaries are so outmatched and underprepared anything besides otl is impossible.
But if it were possible to fight to a stalemate what happens after?
It's pretty hard to see how the Arab capitals and leaders, easpecially Nasser can manage to spin it as anything but an utter defeat. The combined forces of the entire Arab world were unable to advance 10 miles against the Israelis (and this is not the U.S. backed "hang on, we'll strip our NATO supply depots and fly you brand new Phantoms straight from the factory Israel of 1973)? This is a situation where a draw is a massive defeat for the Arabs and a major, even shocking, victory by the Israelis.
TBF I can’t imagine anything worse than losing territory which is what happened in OTL. Assuming if Israel started it like it did in OTL Nasser could spin this as a victorious effort at self-defense. On the other hand if Nasser and Co. started it, then you’d be right that this would be humiliating for the Arabs.
 
The combined forces of the entire Arab world were unable to advance 10 miles against the Israelis (and this is not the U.S. backed "hang on, we'll strip our NATO supply depots and fly you brand new Phantoms straight from the factory Israel of 1973)?
In otl, Nasser and Co claimed that United States backed Israel during the Six Day war, so nothing would change in that regard. Any stalemate can be justified by that .
 
I think the question of who won is best answered by whether the strait of Tiran are open or closed to Israeli merchant traffic. For the Israelis to start a war of this scale and then fail to either force the Egyptians to open the strait in a diplomatic settlement or take the Sinai for themselves would be an enormous failure and unquestionably a defeat. The most plausible scenario for that would probably involve some method of taking away the Israelis' element of surprise, but I don't know how well the Egyptian troops would have stood up to attacks, even if they were expecting them. The Israelis have, throughout their history, been known to lack in terms of artillery, which would be necessary for deliberate attacks, but the Egyptian performance IOTL is certainly not inspiring.
 
I think the question of who won is best answered by whether the strait of Tiran are open or closed to Israeli merchant traffic. For the Israelis to start a war of this scale and then fail to either force the Egyptians to open the strait in a diplomatic settlement or take the Sinai for themselves would be an enormous failure and unquestionably a defeat. The most plausible scenario for that would probably involve some method of taking away the Israelis' element of surprise, but I don't know how well the Egyptian troops would have stood up to attacks, even if they were expecting them. The Israelis have, throughout their history, been known to lack in terms of artillery, which would be necessary for deliberate attacks, but the Egyptian performance IOTL is certainly not inspiring.
The Straight of Tiran wasn't blocked from what I read. A UN observer came and saw that there was hardly any blockade.
 
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