Merely averting thr Sino Japanese war has serious ramifications, as it means Japan is uncommitted during Barbarossa and the FoF and of course avoids the oil embargo. Let's assume that we butterfly the conquest of Manchuria and the broader engagement in China so that Imperial Japan is neutral until 1939 (maybe China was a bit stronger, maybe the Emperor a bit more proactive against the militarists, maybe the navy has a stronger say) and like Italy they hastily jump in against the Allies after France falls. China might (key word might) be bribed into a friendly neutrality- they aren't fond of Japan even without the Mukden Incident but they arent exactly fond of Britain either, and Chiang Kai-Shek might be swayed into an anti communist tactical alliance broadened into an anti British treaty as well (maybe Japan offers Hong Kong in return for their formally joining the war?) so I can see China following suit and jumping in if Britain loses Singapore like OTL.
Absent the war in China I think Japan can commit to a serious invasion of India, and they would presumably have somewhat better luck with collaborationists among the nationalists there. The question then is if Britain can be forced to sue for peace- with the US out and the USSR still neutral I think that the loss of India would precipitate a fall of Churchill's government and an at least temporary armistice with thr Axis. Of course then Stalin probably pays more attention to the various warnings re barbarossa, so I doubt the Germans would be able to do any better there, especially if the Russians are still getting lend lease (which they probably would). I doubt even a sane Japanese govenrment could completely avoid confrontation with the US or USSR but they may be able to sit on their spoils long enough to swing back around to a cold war ally when the USSR inevitably crushes Germany.
Absent the war in China I think Japan can commit to a serious invasion of India, and they would presumably have somewhat better luck with collaborationists among the nationalists there. The question then is if Britain can be forced to sue for peace- with the US out and the USSR still neutral I think that the loss of India would precipitate a fall of Churchill's government and an at least temporary armistice with thr Axis. Of course then Stalin probably pays more attention to the various warnings re barbarossa, so I doubt the Germans would be able to do any better there, especially if the Russians are still getting lend lease (which they probably would). I doubt even a sane Japanese govenrment could completely avoid confrontation with the US or USSR but they may be able to sit on their spoils long enough to swing back around to a cold war ally when the USSR inevitably crushes Germany.