Dang, I didn't expect so much activity while doing my due paper in linguistics.
I've been thinking about it once again and after rebooting my brain I have some ideas. As you may know the smybol of us Serbs is a white double-headed eagle with a crest on which a cross with the legendary CCCC is depicted, both elements that have their origins in the Byzantine heraldry. Fitting. Sometimes I like to believe that Serbia is the closest thing to a modern day Byzantine Empire especially in regards of neopotism, ineffective administration and a decadent leadership. A vestigal empire past its prime that step by step is cannibalized by her neighbours.
As World War II and especially the wars of the 1990s have perfectly shown us Saint Sava's slogan
Samo sloga Srbina spašava (Only unity saves the Serbs) that is depicted on our eagle, is at best a utopic wishful thinking. Think of the Serbs as a schizophrenic hydra with many heads. In the 1990s you had following Serb factions:
- The Republika Srpska Krajina
- the Republika Srpska
- the volunteers
- the crypto communist SPS ruling Serbia
- the Serb nationalist parties with special mention to the SRS and SPO
- Montenegro
- the VJ (Yugoslav Army)
- the Serb Orthodox Church
- Arkan and the Serb underworld
- and of course the "liberal", "civil", "anti-war" elite aka the so-called "Second Serbia" (Druga Srbija)
To give you an idea how much of a hopeless clusterfuck this war was I've read of a pilot from Serbia who flew a plane of the RV VRS (Republika Srpska's Air Force) while fighting for the SVK (Serb Army of the Krajina). According to an interview Manojlo Milovanović (the VRS's number two after Mladić) said that Dudaković and his 5th Corps were buying ammunition from the Serbs. Meanwhile the Republika Srpska made a deal with Croatia to abandon the Krajina in exchange for fuel and ammunition. At one occasion I heard that during a battle against the Croats the Muslims paid the Serbs for artillery service while some elements of the VRS were allegedly hired by the ArBiH and the HVO as mercs in Mostar. The fall of the Republika Srpska Krajina and the Dayton Agreement discredited the nationalist wing of the Serb political landscape which for Milošević was a wet dream comming true. He basically greenlighted the biological disappearance of the Serbs in Croatia to weaken his opposition. Sloba always distrusted if not outright hated the army making the VJ more or less an entity of its own while the head of the secret service Jovica Stanišić was an agent working for the CIA. Under these conditions it's a wonder the Republika Srpska hasn't suffered the same fate as her Krajina twin sister.
How Drašković, Šešelj or anyone else would have behaved I don't really know. Though I can offer a possible alternate history scenario on what I would have done if I won the Serb elections of 1990.
My first step would be to read the writings on the wall, declare communism as dead and engage an aggressive dimplomatic offensive in trying to make the United States as an ally with the goal of becoming the Israel of the Balkans. When you have the backing of Uncle Sam there is almost nothing you can't get away with. As a bonus I'd also revive the "old ties" with France and the UK. Ideologically I'd play the Serb nationalism card and be maybe a mishmash of SPO and SRS.
If there is no way to save Yugoslavia, I'd give my fullest support to the SAO Krajina, tell them not to do any rash actions that may escalate the conflict with Croatia. I'd even tell the Krajina Serbs not to do anything without my approval, in fact they won't be allowed even to take a piss without me saying so. My long-term strategy would be to first see how the Republika Srpska Krajina takes shape and then insist on the RSK having the right to join Serbia. As a Plan B I would insist on the RSK being an "ultra autonomous" entity within Croatia (what IOTL was offered in the Z4 plan), basically a state within a state. In such an endgame Croatia would have an entity within that only listens to Belgrade and that is in a perfect position not only to obstruct but also to blackmail her into submission (more or less like IOTL the Republika Srpska or the Albanians in Macedonia). To an extend I could bully Croatia into becoming my vassal state in which case autonomy may even be better than independence or Greater Serbia. Propaganda shouldn't be a problem. If situation requires I can always play the Ustaša card, especially towards my new old allies from the NATO. My Ministry of Information could remind the rest of the world how we Serbs were their allies in both world wars and the horrors the Ustaše committed. If the RTS (Radiotelevision of Serbia) fails to create international sympathy for the Serbs then CNN, BBC and Le Monde will.
I would have used the same pattern for Bosnia and Herzegovina. If I fail to convince the Muslims to stay within Serbia or a rump Yugoslavia, I'd change my attitude towards Croatia and insist "only" on autonomy of the RSK while in exchange pulling back the JNA, paying some symbolic "reparations" and offering Tuđman his share of the Bosnian pie.
While in the end the AVNOJ borders may remain, the Serb para-states turned autonomous republics are, while de jure part of Croatia and BiH, de facto part of Serbia. As already explained above the RSK and RS would be the whips Serbia could use to whip Croatia and BiH into obedience like a ruthless dominatrix. If something goes wrong her new American, French and British allies can always provide the molten wax and the Japanese wooden horses while this ATLs equivalents of Z4 and Dayton are respectively Croatia's and Bosnia's gimp suits.
