By a dictated peace where the options are either that or a Sandjak-style autonomy within Serb-dominated Yugoslavia, so that independence even with these terms is better than nothing. Armija is too weak to hold out against the combined forces of Bosnian Croats and Serbs, especially if the conflict doesn't last as long as in OTL.
AHC/WI: Serbia won the Bosnian War
- Thread starter Lord General Mihalic
- Start date
By a dictated peace where the options are either that or a Sandjak-style autonomy within Serb-dominated Yugoslavia, so that independence even with these terms is better than nothing. Armija is too weak to hold out against the combined forces of Bosnian Croats and Serbs, especially if the conflict doesn't last as long as in OTL.
Mookie
Banned
I dont see how you can dictate them to accept to be genocided/forced out of their homes or force converted and then serbianized?
Armija had about 250 000 men. It had standing power. It didnt have heavy weapons untill later, thus unable to advance, but Serbs and Croats unable to defeat them either.
In 93 Bosniaks fought Croats and Serbs at the same time, till the first half of 94. They managed.
Serbia was pretty close to winning so the BH federation would probably form under International intervention but with Republica Srpska being the main entity. Annexation would draw international intervention as a violation of sovereignty in the most blatant and disregarding way so a federal state closely aligned with Serbia makes sense.
I think the whole "independence referendum" thing is a relatively good indication of how Yugoslav sentiment with Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats was...not quite there, to say the least. Arguably it wasn't there even with the Serbs, but they had an additional interest in Yugoslavia surviving.
I have heard that the first murder of a civilian in the war was when Bosniak criminal and later BH army soldier Ramiz Delalic fired into a Serbian wedding procession in Sarajevo on 1. of March 1992. Have the Serbs done anything to the Bosniaks before that?
Actually this is all probably getting off-topic, but...whatever.
~70,000 is, if I'm not mistaken, the number of all Bosniak soldiers and civilians killed in the war, while ~5,000 is roughly the number of Serbian civilians killed, without the soldiers, so I don't know how valid it is to compare these two numbers.
What would be the Bosniak's interests in fighting the Croats? Except, arguably, in the case of an insurgency of Herzegovian Croats.
Mookie
Banned
Serbs performed blitzkrieg at the opening days, they ocupied teritory before the start of the war and they stayed there until 94.
Independence had nothing with lack of Yugoslav sentiment or nationalism among Bosniaks, as much as it had with the fear of being alone in Serb dominated Yugoslavia.
The first civilian murder of the war was the murder of Mehmed Ganibegovic killed on 7th october 91 by Serb paramilitaries in town of Sipovo.
And there were numerous incidents after and before that like opening of machine gun fire on Mehmed-aga's mosque in Tuzla.
Delalic killed that man because he was a criminal, not because he was an ultra-nationalist Bosniak.
There are gang shootings in USA every day, yet no one makes that into racial war.
70 000 is the number of civilians. Number of soldiers is 32 000.
Number of raped women and girls is 50 000.
With about 1.5 milion displaced internaly and externaly.
Yugoslav sentiment, if the Serbs used that from the begining instead of Serb nationalism. There were Bosniaks fighting in Croatia even in 91 under those conditions since they believed in Yugoslavia.
Other than that they have no interest in teritorial expansion into Croat teritories.
And they did fight during 93 when Croats abandoned their positions towards the Serbs and started fighting Bosniaks.
I don't think you, me or anyone else can really speak for Delalic's motivations. The fact remains that he shot up a Serbian wedding procession, right outside an Orthodox church, for no apparent reason.
I always heard it was because they had to/were afraid to desert, and that the war in Croatia was viewed by most Bosniaks as a Serbian secessionist affair they wanted nothing to do with from the very start.
Yes, but they fought simply because there was a secessionist movement of Herzegovian and Bosnian Croats.
Also, what I don't understand is how a Serbian-Bosniak joint venture against Croatia would count as "Serbia winning the Bosnian War" since in that case there wouldn't be a Bosnian War at all.
Mookie
Banned
As I said he was a criminal. A gang member. And everyone not clouded by propaganda can see that. He was later killed by other gang members. Or should people blame that on Serbs, put up baricades and start exterminating them?
Fear of desertion has nothing with it. There were Bosniaks fighting on the side of VRS even. Untill VRS killed them all and their families.
The only way for Serbia to win a war is not to fight it at all. Bosniaks wont just let someone force them out of their homes, or exterminate them, or force them to convert without fighting back with their backs against the wall.
Nor will the Croats allow Serbia to have such a huge border with Croatias interior
tuareg109
Banned
I dont think Alija had much choice
Serbia allready controled the votes of Montenegro, Vojvodina, Serbia and Kosovo. That is 4.
With Croatia out, Slovenia out, Macedonia out, that leaves Bosnia at the mercy of the Serbs, and Bosnian vote would never count, since its 4 to 1.
And I dont see how you can be a muslim nationalist?
He didn't have a choice, you're right; a more accepting and less nationalistic Serbian population and government would've meant that Alija would never be elected into power in the first place, though.
Muslim Nationalist means somebody who is a nationalist and believes that their nation should be based on or at least loosely follow Islamic teachings. This was Alija Izetbegovic. Fikret Abdic and others--like Ante Markovic (of course, not being a Muslim)--wanted to follow a much more secular and Western-style government. Basically Islamic Nationalism in Bosnia was a backlash against increasing Serb domination in politics and the military.
Mookie
Banned
Fikret Abdic cared for himself. He proved that long time ago. He and his followers dont see themselves as Bosniaks or Bosnians at all. Even today.
I think that is prejudice about Alija based on his book. Not a single hint of islam was incorporated into the constitution. There were "constitutive people", 3 of them. And laws were largely Yugoslavian. Hell, islam wasnt even made into an official religion, not even when war started
tuareg109
Banned
My dad was in the 5th Corps of ARBiH during the war, and he said that he and all his friends wanted to join the HVO (Croatian Defense Force) just across the border; they had the coolest uniforms
But yeah, it seemed like even in the beginning of the war most Bosniaks were in favor of cooperation with the Croats.
And Mookie's right: the only way for Serbia to win without huge costs in prestige and in men is to not fight at all. Remember, the people of RS were fighting for their political independence; this is an abstract idea that they've done without since WWII, and even before then. The Bosniaks were fighting for their very survival; they knew that the closer the Serbs came, the closer they were to death or torture and rape. They might've been forcibly deported too, but that's almost just as bad for a people who have lived in the same place for over a thousand years.
tuareg109
Banned
Yes, Fikret Abdic did only care for himself--Western "democracies" are typically set up that way! However, the system he wanted in power is definitely better than the post-Tito system, and undoubtedly better than what people in Bosnia have now.
No, not a single hint of Islamism was put into the Constitution...because Serbs and Croats still had a voice right before the war, and making the Independence War a religious war would have worried the Western aid-providers something fierce. And then, of course, after the War nobody was in a position to do anything constructive.
Still, it's Alija's state that now mandates teaching of religion in public schools. It's a required subject for all Muslim and Muslim-descended students: Vjeronauka (Religious Science/Study). In the Federation Canton government centers, you can't enter (male or female) if your knees are showing. If that's not at least a vestige of Islamism, I don't know what is.
At least they still sell alcohol on Ramazan!
By brute force just as ethnic cleansing that occurred in OTL? Sure, Serbs in Krajina and Kosovo and people of all greeds and ethnic backgrounds living as internally displaced persons in BiH still don't accept what happened to their "purged" home territories, but it still happened and they have to live with that.
Yep - in January 1993. During 1992 it was still a fledgling alliance of militias and was just forming up. It's true that in OTL Armija was able to stand it's ground against their opponents, but assuming that both Croatia and Serbia gang up on them with their regular armies as well (nearly impossible, I know) they would most likely have to give ground until both sides state that they've achieved their war aims and dig in to the conquered territories. People fighting for their lives and homes are never a push-over and it wouldn't be the case here either, but I fail to see how Armija would have been able to stop such attack from happening. This scenario naturally assumes that Serb and Croatian nationalists somehow agree to focus on Bosnia and find some kind of a negotiated solution to their other disputes, so it's really, really unlikely to occur. Still, as a whole both sides had leaders who were mostly in control of the different armed forces on their disposal, and they made the political and military choises that led to OTL situation. To change that so that Serbian nationalists would reach a situation they'd see as "victory", one has to change the OTL situation quite a bit, and first and foremost remove the war against Croatia from the equation.
I'd also like to emphasize that we're discussing how and if Serbia could have won the war in Bosnia - not whether or not it would have been a good or a bad thing.
Mookie
Banned
Religious sciences arent mandatory. They dont even go into score average.
While in Serb part Bosniaks have to attent orthodox religious teaching and "saint sava" ceremonies, as well as learning only in Serbian language.
Misha will be regarded as National Hero.
Kebabs will be removed.
And..the balkans will be MORE unstable
Kebabs will be removed.
And..the balkans will be MORE unstable
Mookie
Banned
By brute force just as ethnic cleansing that occurred in OTL? Sure, Serbs in Krajina and Kosovo and people of all greeds and ethnic backgrounds living as internally displaced persons in BiH still don't accept what happened to their "purged" home territories, but it still happened and they have to live with that.
Yep - in January 1993. During 1992 it was still a fledgling alliance of militias and was just forming up. It's true that in OTL Armija was able to stand it's ground against their opponents, but assuming that both Croatia and Serbia gang up on them with their regular armies as well (nearly impossible, I know) they would most likely have to give ground until both sides state that they've achieved their war aims and dig in to the conquered territories. People fighting for their lives and homes are never a push-over and it wouldn't be the case here either, but I fail to see how Armija would have been able to stop such attack from happening. This scenario naturally assumes that Serb and Croatian nationalists somehow agree to focus on Bosnia and find some kind of a negotiated solution to their other disputes, so it's really, really unlikely to occur. Still, as a whole both sides had leaders who were mostly in control of the different armed forces on their disposal, and they made the political and military choises that led to OTL situation. To change that so that Serbian nationalists would reach a situation they'd see as "victory", one has to change the OTL situation quite a bit, and first and foremost remove the war against Croatia from the equation.
I'd also like to emphasize that we're discussing how and if Serbia could have won the war in Bosnia - not whether or not it would have been a good or a bad thing.
Its one thing when you fight and lose, and its another when someone in Brussels tells you that you have to do what Serbs want you to do.
And as for discussion, it couldnt have won. Its simple as that.
tuareg109
Banned
Maybe it's different on a Cantonal level. In the Unsko-Sanski Canton--which is, admittedly, much more homogenous than any other Canton--it is mandatory. I know because I've been there, and know many school-age people there.
Now that Serb part is definitely messed up. State-sponsored brainwashing is not okay. Also, students in the Unsko-Sanski Canton have to learn Cyrillic as well as Latin script; many schoolbooks have chapters alternating between the two scripts.
My dad was in the 5th Corps of ARBiH during the war, and he said that he and all his friends wanted to join the HVO (Croatian Defense Force) just across the border; they had the coolest uniforms
But yeah, it seemed like even in the beginning of the war most Bosniaks were in favor of cooperation with the Croats.
And Mookie's right: the only way for Serbia to win without huge costs in prestige and in men is to not fight at all. Remember, the people of RS were fighting for their political independence; this is an abstract idea that they've done without since WWII, and even before then. The Bosniaks were fighting for their very survival; they knew that the closer the Serbs came, the closer they were to death or torture and rape. They might've been forcibly deported too, but that's almost just as bad for a people who have lived in the same place for over a thousand years.
I remember reading "Zlata's Diary" when she described Sarajevo before the war and how people in Sarajevo were putting together care packages to send to the Croats in Dubrovnik during the siege of that city. I got the impression from that reference that many of the Sarajevans were considerably more sympathetic to the Croats than to the Serbs in 1991 as well.
Arkan was a criminal too, and he was eventually killed by another Serbian criminal. But I'm not sure it would be fine to qualify him as "just a gang member".
My dad was in the 5th Corps of ARBiH during the war, and he said that he and all his friends wanted to join the HVO (Croatian Defense Force) just across the border; they had the coolest uniforms
Lol. I can sort of understand that, at least if he was talking about the black ones. The others are nothing special.
But intensive propaganda on all three sides claimed that it was, in fact, a war of survival - that the Evil Ustashe getting their Greater Croatia/Evil Islamists getting their unitary Bosnia/Evil Chetniks getting their Greater Serbia can only end in *our* extermination or deportation. Obviously, neither of these claims was completely true, but they were still believed by many.