AHC/WI Second Haitian Revolution, the socialist boogaloo?

How could Haití have a a revolution like the cuban one? How would the legacy of the first revolution affect the second one? Just like the first one was against the french slavocrats, the second one would be frame as against the colored bourgaosie and their yanki masters? Would the revolutionaries frame this as thw conclution of the first revolution? Would the haitian american emigree comunity be like the cuban one but with a racial component? How would be the relation with Cuba (to make it more interesting, have both survive to our days)?
 
If the events leading to this happen after Cuba, I expect the US will head off any potential revolution by whatever means they have to. Plus, while more communism in the Caribbean is generally a good thing for the Soviet Union, Cuba was the prize, I don't think they'd throw their full weight behind Haiti and risk a war over it.

If this revolution precedes the events in Cuba the new communist state might survive. But the problem is that while Cuba is an island by itself, Haiti has the DR to its east. So the DR is going to have to figure out how to deal with the new government on their border. If the US takes the lessons from this 2nd Haitian revolution then there might never be a Cuban revolution in the way we recognize it. The intelligence services would just be too focused on the region.

IOTL something like 20% of all Haitians live abroad. I would expect that percentage to increase if Haiti has a sustained communist revolution. Maybe as high as 30-35%. But the number of countries willing to take Haitians is....not particularly high. If this takes place during Trujillo's tenure as President of the DR you could actually see very violent methods used to keep Haitians out of the country.
 
If Magloire had managed to consolidate his hold on the army and power in 1956 rather than fleeing to Jamaica then a chaotic "socialist" revolution against the elites he restored to power doesn't seem unlikely.

There would absolutely be a racial element. Papa Doc, Magloire's successor, managed to stay popular despite being an insane dictator by presenting himself as a champion of the poor blacks against the wealthier mulatto population.

It's a bit tough to tell what Cuba would do since Castro reportedly hated Papa Doc and the two countries had terrible relations since he took power. I think Cuba strongly wanted to distance themselves from the anti-intellectual and racial elements of Haiti's populist politics.

Overall though I don't know how long a socialist government in Haiti would last. The country was so wildly unstable that it seems it would be extremely susceptible to US meddling and regime change without something like Pap Doc's despotic control.
 
If Magloire had managed to consolidate his hold on the army and power in 1956 rather than fleeing to Jamaica then a chaotic "socialist" revolution against the elites he restored to power doesn't seem unlikely.

There would absolutely be a racial element. Papa Doc, Magloire's successor, managed to stay popular despite being an insane dictator by presenting himself as a champion of the poor blacks against the wealthier mulatto population.

It's a bit tough to tell what Cuba would do since Castro reportedly hated Papa Doc and the two countries had terrible relations since he took power. I think Cuba strongly wanted to distance themselves from the anti-intellectual and racial elements of Haiti's populist politics.

Overall though I don't know how long a socialist government in Haiti would last. The country was so wildly unstable that it seems it would be extremely susceptible to US meddling and regime change without something like Pap Doc's despotic control.
The instability aspect I think is the most important thing here. A group of Haitian communists could declare the People's Republic of Haiti on Monday, and be deposed, tried, and executed by end of business Friday. Cuba, which demonstrated a desire to spread communism in the Caribbean IOTL, could play a role in stabilizing a communist government if relations are repaired, but that'd be counteracted by the US picking any faction within the military and sponsoring a coup.
 
If the events leading to this happen after Cuba, I expect the US will head off any potential revolution by whatever means they have to. Plus, while more communism in the Caribbean is generally a good thing for the Soviet Union, Cuba was the prize, I don't think they'd throw their full weight behind Haiti and risk a war over it.

If this revolution precedes the events in Cuba the new communist state might survive. But the problem is that while Cuba is an island by itself, Haiti has the DR to its east. So the DR is going to have to figure out how to deal with the new government on their border. If the US takes the lessons from this 2nd Haitian revolution then there might never be a Cuban revolution in the way we recognize it. The intelligence services would just be too focused on the region.

IOTL something like 20% of all Haitians live abroad. I would expect that percentage to increase if Haiti has a sustained communist revolution. Maybe as high as 30-35%. But the number of countries willing to take Haitians is....not particularly high. If this takes place during Trujillo's tenure as President of the DR you could actually see very violent methods used to keep Haitians out of the country.
After reading about Papa doc, I doubt the communist could make things worst. Or that Haiti could have a bigger diaspora than already has, unless USA gives easy citizenship to Haitians like with Cuba, but I doubt they would do that, free inmigration from a black country would set a lot of alarms from a lot of people.
 
After reading about Papa doc, I doubt the communist could make things worst. Or that Haiti could have a bigger diaspora than already has, unless USA gives easy citizenship to Haitians like with Cuba, but I doubt they would do that, free inmigration from a black country would set a lot of alarms from a lot of people.
It would add in a level of foreign meddling from both ideological sides that could just be worse. The absolute worst case scenario would be if they decided to culminate the revolution the same way the first was, with the slaughter of anyone not basically pure black.

I agree the US wouldn't extend the asylum they did. Not only is there a racial issue, although I think the dynamics of that are going to vary depending on when exactly we're talking about this happening, but Cuba also had a strong middle class, and a lot of the early departers left by plane and arrived not as totally impoverished people needing aid. The ones who arrived later benefited from the existing Cuban population. There'd be no such vanguard to support later Haitian arrivals. In fact I think they'd face a lot of hostility from the other Caribbean diaspora populations like Dominicans and Puerto Ricans.
 
It would add in a level of foreign meddling from both ideological sides that could just be worse. The absolute worst case scenario would be if they decided to culminate the revolution the same way the first was, with the slaughter of anyone not basically pure black.

I agree the US wouldn't extend the asylum they did. Not only is there a racial issue, although I think the dynamics of that are going to vary depending on when exactly we're talking about this happening, but Cuba also had a strong middle class, and a lot of the early departers left by plane and arrived not as totally impoverished people needing aid. The ones who arrived later benefited from the existing Cuban population. There'd be no such vanguard to support later Haitian arrivals. In fact I think they'd face a lot of hostility from the other Caribbean diaspora populations like Dominicans and Puerto Ricans.

Interestingly, apparently one of the major points of contention between Cuba and Papa Doc is that Castro was providing asylum for people fleeing Haiti. Cuba seems to have opened the doors for all of the upper class and mulattoes that the populist Haitians wanted out.
 
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