I've decided to forego the usual 'PC' because I know full well it isn't very plausible at all...
I read recently about American public outcry over the Russian treatment of minorities inside Russia, specifically the Jews. In fact, the U.S. government in 1911 cancelled the U.S.-Russian Treaty of Navigation and Commerce (1832) over the treatment of American Jews visiting Russia.
I know it's damn near impossible to escalate this plausibly, but considering international incidents don't always have to make a great deal of sense I thought, 'plausibility be damned, I want a war!'
The series of events I have in mind is essentially as follows: First, a notable Jewish American is detained for entering St. Petersburg in early 1912. Perhaps through no fault of the Russian authorities the individual is killed in custody, inciting severe backlash from the American public. The 1832 treaty, mind, is already on the chopping block here. Mob violence in the U.S. against Russian Americans occurs sporadically, while anti-Semites in the U.S. react predictably. In the midst of the chaos, George Bakhmeteff, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. is assassinated in a bomb attack carried out by a Jewish American communist in Washington D.C.
Curtis Guild Jr., U.S. Ambassador to Russia is officially recalled but after missing his boat due to unrest he is beaten and arrested before being escorted officially to his own deportation by the Russian military. Upon his return to America his quotes expressing his irritation with Russia are taken out of context and exaggerated in the press.
In the early Spring an incident occurs in the Pacific between the U.S. and Russian navies resulting in a sunken Russian warship. The Americans claim it was accidental, but the Russians begin to mobilize their navy for defense and posturing. All the while reports flood in from Russia concerning Jews who are suddenly being mistreated far worse even than in the years prior. The United States issues ultimatums to Russia and decries the government, all the while imposing immediate economic and diplomatic freezes with the nation. An American civilian fishing boat is sunk off of the Alaskan coast by Russia, accidentally of course as the Russians blame fog, and in late March the U.S. sinks a small Russian passenger liner. By mid-spring war appears inevitable despite international cries for peace. Congress calls for a declaration and is close to receiving it. A submarine of the Baltic Fleet torpedoes a British or American passenger liner containing quite a few British passengers. The UK calls for a diplomatic solution and calls both sides to the table in London to negotiate whilst temporarily blockading Russian ports to force them to talks.
Negotiations break down, more violence, assassinations, etc., Russia attempts to cripple the American navy at Pearl Harbor, Congress declares war, and by the summer of 1912 the Russo-American War is officially declared. While the UK remains neutral the blockade stands...
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I know the above series of events is unlikely, but whimsy aside, what if a diplomatic situation in early 1912 escalated to all out, full-scale war between the Russian Empire and the United States?
A few things:
1. I think this prevents The Great War rather than starts it early. Russia is an outsider in Europe (in general) and in the Triple Entente (in particular) and America isn't really friends or enemies with anyone at all and has a tendency towards non-intervention and even isolationism in this era. All the European alliances are specifically aimed as mutual defense alliances against other European powers - not the United States. What do you think? A larger war, or simply a Russo-American War (with UK support for the U.S. in the way of blockade)?
I can envision Germany increasing trade with both sides, perhaps even including the sale of arms, supplies, etc. to both. Sending military advisors/observers to both would probably be something they would like to attempt as well. Germany in this era likes to learn about war and this is a wonderful opportunity. AH is less likely to get that involved, but she wants Russia to lose, surely. Increased trade with the U.S.? Did much trade between the two exist in the first place at this time? And what of France? What do you think?
2. Russia begins this war with an incredible advantage all across the board, with the exception of the economic capacity it possesses to replace anything it loses. This is why getting the UK involved in a blockade is pretty crucial to this scenario existing in the first place. Otherwise the U.S. is toast before the first shot is fired.
However, we know how Herculean the U.S. war effort can prove. If we call this, say, a two year war, can the U.S. achieve the upper hand in the bloody draw that will inevitably be the result of this war? Pyrrhic victory? Or can no one, not even a WWI era American war machine successfully fight Russia? The conventional wisdom of the time was that 1916 was the year when Russia's economy would catch up to its military capacity, and therefore become difficult or impossible to tangle with. Does the U.S. therefore stand a chance of squeaking out a narrow win?
3. We know that this is a Russia in the middle of a slow burning revolutionary period. Might America successfully use that to its own advantage? Fomenting peasant and ethnic revolts? It's something I've thought quite a lot about but have been unable to come to a conclusion on.
4. Can anyone successfully invade Russia? If the naval war goes well for the U.S. a seige and invasion by American forces into St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Sevastopol, and/or Odessa is possible, I believe. St. Petersburg is practically indefensible and the government would have to move to Moscow. If the U.S. is lucky and Russia is foolish, the invasion begins at the end of winter, and America takes enough time between victories to regroup and fortify I think it can just barely be done. A long seige of Moscow and a crippling of Russia's Pacific Fleet in the meantime is the result. Or have I missed something in my history? It would be a truly difficult slog and more than likely an American defeat, but can it be done? Not just by a quickly militarizing U.S. but by anyone at all? Help me out, please.
5. Can Russia invade or bomb the U.S. mainland? Take a page out of the Kaiser's playbook perhaps? If enough men and ships can shake free of the blockade in the west it's just possible she could attempt, after bombing shipyards along the coast as well as D.C., New York, and Boston to land some unlucky troops there. Troops from the Russian Far East could do more and better, I think. Blockade or no blockade the UK can't keep Russia airtight in the east. Russia could send more troops to America's West coast than it could in the east, and those troops could establish more effective beachheads. Of course, they have the ships and the troops at the start of the war to do so, but would they think to, how unsuccessful would this course of action be, and what would be the end result of the attempt?
6. Speaking of which, what does a two year shorter war with fewer soldiers, ships, and casualties fought two year before the beginning of OTL's Great War even look like? Trenches might be rare, more horses and less autos, no automatic rifles, fewer airships and far fewer planes, neither one as advanced as even the low tech versions of OTL's WWI. No gas? No barbed wire? What sort of war are we looking at?
7. Regardless of outcome, what is the result? I've already said I don't think WWI happens, but for how long can it be delayed? A decade?
Russia, win or lose, is now years behind of OTL with economic improvement. The United States, win or lose, just lost a lot of good men and no small amount of money and arms. All other major powers, meanwhile, have vibrant populations and well greased economies, not to mention war knowledge gained from observing this disaster.
It ends just before the Archduke Franz Ferdinand is killed, and in this timeline perhaps he isn't. So what do the late teens and early twenties look like in the absence of war?
Regardless of who wins and who loses (again, both sides will most likely lose for all intents and purposes...) the Czar now essentially has to step down and allow a relative to take over for him. How probable is an expanded constitution, further decrease of the power of the monarch, allowance of communists to take power in the new constitutionally monarchical government, and at last providing suffrage and equal rights to many oppressed peoples in Russia?
In the U.S. how does this effect the election of 1912? The public's view of war? Relations with Europe? The economy? The 1916 election?
And a bonus: If the Ottoman Empire collapses around the 1915-1920 neighborhood, is it possible for all the powers to put their differences aside to split up the spoils? Who all would jump in? What would go to whom?
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That's probably enough for now.
Again, I know this is an unlikely idea, but the touchy situation between Russia and the U.S. In 1911-13 OTL got my mind working overtime and that's usually when it's best to post here.
How can the United States and the Russian Empire go to war in 1912 and what would be the result?
Thank you all.