AHC/WI: Russia reaches the Hungarian Plain

kernals12

Banned
What if during World War I, the Russians managed to reach the Hungarian Plain, perhaps thanks to the Brusilov Offensive. Would A-H be forced to surrender? And if they did, would Germany collapse? Needless to say, such a victory would probably save Nicky.
 
The Carpathians are not good ground to traverse, and Conrad von Hötzendorf found that out the hard way.
If i were in charge of the Russian army, i'd prefer estabilishing a defensive line in the Carpathians, to supplant an offensive drive towards Berlin. The main objective of the Brusilov offensive was to weaken Austria-Hungary in order to support another offensive in the north, on general Evert's ground, IIRC.
 
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Well If I'm going off a VERY, almost ASB successful Brusilov offensive, and the Russians make it to the Carpathian mountains, Russia most likely won't advance into the Hungarian plain. If they do, they will most likely put down tons of trenches near the mountains on the plains, for ground, and cliff support from any Austro-Hungarian offensive. Russia after this might sew for peace with Austria. Would Austria accept? Hard to tell. Austria knows Russia is going to have a hard time advancing farther into the Hungarian plains because they will take more casualties the farther they push in. However Austria knows, the Russians will have put a lot of men near, or on the Carpathians, and seeing as they will have already lost alot of men fighting to take the mountains, the Russian war effort is already extremely strained, with millions of deaths, and troops expended everywhere.

This is just what the Ottomans and Germans need to keep advancing in Russia. Austria-Hungary most likely won't ask for peace, because they know that Russia has sacrificed a lot of people to take the mountains, and now has lost hundreds of thousands of people.
 
This depends on when they do it.

If it happens in 1914- say the Russians switch to Alexeseyev's southern strategy. They ignore East Prussia and go for the Austrians. They will route them, drive them from the passes and open the Hungarian plain with strong forces in reserve A strike into the Hungarian plain would deal the knockout blow as the Romanians and Italians would pounce to get whatever spoils they could and the Ottomans don't join Alexeseyev's planned a drive into Silesia after defeating the Austrians but if that stalls, the Russians might go for the Hungarian plain. They will be stronger not having lost in East Prussia and with the Ottomans wavering freeing up the Caucasian front, a drive to Budapest can easily be in the cards


If it happens in 1916-

A lot would depend on just how much of the Austrian army remains. Austro-German morale is sinking pretty heavily, the Kaiser is in total panic when the Romanians do join. It might be enough but would probably need some help. Maybe buying off the Bulgarians. Nicky's fall is a fluke that won't take much to avoid. That has repercussions that are hard to see- it might delay American involvement or make the Austro-Germans want to settle with their monarchail brother rather than the Republicans
 

kernals12

Banned
This depends on when they do it.

If it happens in 1914- say the Russians switch to Alexeseyev's southern strategy. They ignore East Prussia and go for the Austrians. They will route them, drive them from the passes and open the Hungarian plain with strong forces in reserve A strike into the Hungarian plain would deal the knockout blow as the Romanians and Italians would pounce to get whatever spoils they could and the Ottomans don't join Alexeseyev's planned a drive into Silesia after defeating the Austrians but if that stalls, the Russians might go for the Hungarian plain. They will be stronger not having lost in East Prussia and with the Ottomans wavering freeing up the Caucasian front, a drive to Budapest can easily be in the cards


If it happens in 1916-

A lot would depend on just how much of the Austrian army remains. Austro-German morale is sinking pretty heavily, the Kaiser is in total panic when the Romanians do join. It might be enough but would probably need some help. Maybe buying off the Bulgarians. Nicky's fall is a fluke that won't take much to avoid. That has repercussions that are hard to see- it might delay American involvement or make the Austro-Germans want to settle with their monarchail brother rather than the Republicans
Why didn't they do that IOTL?
 
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Deleted member 1487

This depends on when they do it.

If it happens in 1914- say the Russians switch to Alexeseyev's southern strategy. They ignore East Prussia and go for the Austrians. They will route them, drive them from the passes and open the Hungarian plain with strong forces in reserve A strike into the Hungarian plain would deal the knockout blow as the Romanians and Italians would pounce to get whatever spoils they could and the Ottomans don't join Alexeseyev's planned a drive into Silesia after defeating the Austrians but if that stalls, the Russians might go for the Hungarian plain. They will be stronger not having lost in East Prussia and with the Ottomans wavering freeing up the Caucasian front, a drive to Budapest can easily be in the cards
Not sure the logistics would work out via Carpathian passes, especially given A-H and German reserves that would pour in to stop them; in 1914 Russian logistics into Galicia were abysmal due to the rail gauge shift, poor roads, and weather. Getting into the Hungarian plain has all that be true PLUS the abysmal logistics of having to use one poor rail line through the mountains while the enemy is at the hub of their logistics. It might well end up being a disaster for the Russians on a Tannenberg scale.

Remember this isn't WW2 with major truck borne logistics over roads with 30 years of development. The Russians had their logistics chain rudely yanked in September by the rail situation, road situation, mud, and Przemysl/Dniester fortified bridgeheads. Decisive victory in 1914 in the East was not really possible due to logistics concerns and as always the advantage lay with the defender, who was able to move FAR more quickly due to rail movement on their own system and thanks to land line communications (lack of radio was a massive hindrance as well).

Why didn't they do that IOTL/
Logistics and the French screaming for help as the German right wing threatened Paris.
 
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Not sure the logistics would work out via Carpathian passes, especially given A-H and German reserves that would pour in to stop them; in 1914 Russian logistics into Galicia were abysmal due to the rail gauge shift, poor roads, and weather. Getting into the Hungarian plain has all that be true PLUS the abysmal logistics of having to use one poor rail line through the mountains while the enemy is at the hub of their logistics. It might well end up being a disaster for the Russians on a Tannenberg scale.

Remember this isn't WW2 with major truck borne logistics over roads with 30 years of development. The Russians had their logistics chain rudely yanked in September by the rail situation, road situation, mud, and Przemysl/Dniester fortified bridgeheads. Decisive victory in 1914 in the East was not really possible due to logistics concerns and as always the advantage lay with the defender, who was able to move FAR more quickly due to rail movement on their own system and thanks to land line communications (lack of radio was a massive hindrance as well).


Logistics and the French screaming for help as the German right wing threatened Paris.

This seems like an interesting thread to pursue; AH forces cutting off the one viable route of Russian supply and organized retreat could be one of the few ways you could effectively organize the ever elusive longed for envelopment and destruction of an army-sized unit in a WW I environment, especially if small units of Russians who manage to escape through the rougher, lower passes get strafed by partisans on the way back a'la the Serbian retreat through Albania. Could the political kick in the pants created by a Canie in Hungary lead to an early shake up in the Russian command?
 
Why didn't they do that IOTL?

Russian war planning was much debated and goes through many changes before the war. After the Manchurian War, Russia's planning is defensive and extremely pessimistic. Danilov's idea prevails and extreme caution is the rule of the day. He fears all kinds of coalitions- Sweden and Romania joining the war against Russia and France being neutral. He favors a northern offensive against East Prussia and assigns four armies to it not the two Otl.

Alexeseyev is more optimistic school. The political and military situation changes for the better for Russia as well. By 1912, Alexeseyev is arguing that Romania and Sweden are unlikely to join a war against Russia, that British entry was likely and Italy would be neutral in a war with France. This opened up more possibilities. Alexeseyev also correctly argued that an attack on East Prussia was full of dangers (the Russians are defeated more by geography than the germans) and unlikely to yield decisive results as the Germans could retreat behind the Vistula. Austria was far more vulnerable

The main criticism of the plan were:

1) The north would be vulnerable. Alexeseyev deployed 13 divisions to the north versus OTL 29. He argued that this would be enough to defend against a spoiling attack from East Prussia. There were doubts about this especially if the Germans deployed the upper limit of 20-25 divisions to East Prussia.

2) The Russians also understood the need to draw the Germans off the French. If France collapsed early, which many in Russia expected, then nothing that is accomplished in the South would matter.

In the end, the Russians adopt a hybrid of the two plans. It leaves both the north and the south with too little to accomplish a decisive blow. The Southern strike fails to encircle and destroy the Austrians and the Northern armies are too small and destroyed. The four divisions the Russians draw off the French probably wouldn't have mattered anyway.

Knowing what we do now, we can say if the Russians had adopted the plan:

They would have saved the 1st and 2nd armies from destruction and probably obliterated the Austrians. France would have still survived and the Entente in much better shape. If the French had stuck to plan XVI or XV the two plans would have worked beautifully together. The war would probably have been over by September

@wiking

With the Russian 1st and 2nd armies intact and the Austrians destroyed, may I ask where all these German troops you are using are coming from
 

Deleted member 1487

@wiking

With the Russian 1st and 2nd armies intact and the Austrians destroyed, may I ask where all these German troops you are using are coming from
Austrian and German intel was pretty solid about Russian deployments so would know if the Austrians were getting ganged up on, so they wouldn't attack and stick to their defensive plan in Galicia, that is sit behind their fortifications on the Dniester river. The Russians then overload their logistics even getting to the Dniester with all these extra armies and do no such thing as destroy Austrian armies. Meanwhile the German 8th army, freed up from facing an offensive in East Prussia, can form the historical 9th army sooner, leaving their weakest forces behind in Prussia to defend while taking their best to support the Austrians in Poland.

That is about the worst outcome for the Entente as the Germans divert nothing from France, the Austrians face less losses than IOTL, and the Russians are in a worse position in Galicia, while the Germans can start operating against their flank in South Poland. True the Russians might initially save 2nd army and part of the 1st lost IOTL, but given their historical performance in late 1914 around Lodz the Russians will likely get smashed up in Summer 1914 in South Poland against the Germans.
 
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