AHC/WI: Royal Navy Copenhagen Italian Navy in 1935 - 1937

Thomas1195

Banned
AH Challenge: RN Copenhagen Regina Marina in 1935, after the Second Italo-Abyssinian War broke out, with a POD start in 1929-1931.

And then, what would happen next?

One thing is that the LNT would be broken
 
... is it me or does this question not make any sense? RN Copenhagen Regina Marina in 1935? Am i missing something? You want the 2 sides to duke it out at Copenhagen?

I'm sorry, i don't want to sound rude.
 
... is it me or does this question not make any sense? RN Copenhagen Regina Marina in 1935? Am i missing something? You want the 2 sides to duke it out at Copenhagen?

I'm sorry, i don't want to sound rude.

It refers to the so called Copenhagen Manoeuvre which is short hand for the idea of the Royal Navy pre-emptively striking at the enemy or potential enemy fleet in its home ports.
 
Do you mean Attack the Italian fleet while at the same time landing a raiding force as the British did to the Danish navy in 1807

Resulting in the entire fleet being captured by the British?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
... is it me or does this question not make any sense? RN Copenhagen Regina Marina in 1935? Am i missing something? You want the 2 sides to duke it out at Copenhagen

I'm sorry, i don't want to sound rude.
I mean, it is similar to RN "Pearl Harboured'' Italian navy
 
It refers to the so called Copenhagen Manoeuvre which is short hand for the idea of the Royal Navy pre-emptively striking at the enemy or potential enemy fleet in its home ports.

oh, i get it now.

How exactly would the British go about this attack then? Would they have build up an airforce for attacking Italian ports from Malta? Or would they go fully Japanese style and sail there with 2 or 3 carriers?

Both things would take time to prepare, and both things would not go unnoticed by the Italians.

I'd say the chances of significant damage to the Italian fleet is small since there is hardly any intel nor any experience with this kind of attacks(read the problems the Japanese faced attacking Pearl Harbor). It would result in many casualities on the British side and a war neither side is ready for.
 
oh, i get it now.

How exactly would the British go about this attack then? Would they have build up an airforce for attacking Italian ports from Malta? Or would they go fully Japanese style and sail there with 2 or 3 carriers?

Both things would take time to prepare, and both things would not go unnoticed by the Italians.

I'd say the chances of significant damage to the Italian fleet is small since there is hardly any intel nor any experience with this kind of attacks(read the problems the Japanese faced attacking Pearl Harbor). It would result in many casualities on the British side and a war neither side is ready for.

There is as well as the example of Taranto using a carrier which was actually done to the Italians in wartime also the example of Mers-El-Kebir where the British simply used a squadron of battleships and shelled the French in the harbour. As ships in harbour cannot manoeuvre very well it made for more than usually accurate shooting.

You may want to adjust the odds based on those examples.
 

Okay then

I suspect that an attack before 1938 would be a 'surface action' affair with ships like the Hood, Nelson etc doing a Mers El Kebir style attack with the only role of Aircraft being spotting the fall of shot etc and providing air cover

The British had plans from before WW1 but the Op Judgement style plans were as far as I am aware created after the Munich crisis in 1938 when the Staff on board HMS Glorious at Adm Pounds insistence devised the original plan for an airstrike on the ships in Harbour - it was so secret that orders were not written down and were verbal only.

This was passed onto Cunningham after he took over from Pound a month before WW2 started (the European part anyway) and the plan was further revised by the air group on HMS Eagle which while small was comprised of some very experienced pilots and crew and this plan was further revised with the inclusion of Illustrious coming on Strength in Nov 1940 and then further revised when Eagle herself pulled a sicky just before the mission.

Of course technically there is nothing stopping such an attack in 1935 other than the FAA not being a Navy branch but still belonging to the RAF at the time - and even then I'm not sure what impact this would have?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
oh, i get it now.

How exactly would the British go about this attack then? Would they have build up an airforce for attacking Italian ports from Malta? Or would they go fully Japanese style and sail there with 2 or 3 carriers?

Both things would take time to prepare, and both things would not go unnoticed by the Italians.

I'd say the chances of significant damage to the Italian fleet is small since there is hardly any intel nor any experience with this kind of attacks(read the problems the Japanese faced attacking Pearl Harbor). It would result in many casualities on the British side and a war neither side is ready for.
Therefore I also put an AHC at the beginning and a POD around 1929-1931. It means the RN must be in a better shape. E.g. better shell reserves for Nelrods
 
There is as well as the example of Taranto using a carrier which was actually done to the Italians in wartime also the example of Mers-El-Kebir where the British simply used a squadron of battleships and shelled the French in the harbour. As ships in harbour cannot manoeuvre very well it made for more than usually accurate shooting.

You may want to adjust the odds based on those examples.

There isn't, those examples all took place after 1935, so they wouldn't have happened yet.

Therefore I also put an AHC at the beginning and a POD around 1929-1931. It means the RN must be in a better shape. E.g. better shell reserves for Nelrods

I see, well then a more prepared Italian Navy would be true as well, if they know the British can attack them effectively and possibly would if they attack Abyssinia then they would have moved their Navy north to Venice or Genoa. Would be very dangerous for the British fleet to attack the Italian navy there. I guess they would resort to attacking cities instead, like on Sicily or Southern Italy.

Anyway a land war would be inevitable as the Italians are not going to surrender just because the British bombed them.
 
Italy wasn't the big threat in 1935, they even might still have been salvageable as an ally an attack would be prudent. Actually until Italy entered the war it still might have been possible to get some use from Italy.
 
Okay a few things to appreciate regarding this POD of the 4 battleships in the Italian navy at the time:-

Conte di Cavour and Giulio Cesare are both in a deep refit/rebuild between 1933 and 1937 and this at Genoa (North West Italy)

Andrea Doria and Caio Duilio are both in their original Pre WW1 'Pre Jutland' configuration in 1935 (not rebuilt until 1937-1940) and therefore at 21 knots and 12" guns badly outmatched by the British

So with only 2 principle targets I think a couple of Battleships - any from the British Battle Line or even 2 of the 3 BCs should do the job in a Mer El Kebir style attack





 

Thomas1195

Banned
Italy was no longer an ally after Stressa front failed.

If the Copenhagen was a big success (very likely) and Italian navy crippled, then the North African and Mediterranean Theatre would have gone vastly different.
 
Italy was no longer an ally after Stressa front failed.

If the Copenhagen was a big success (very likely) and Italian navy crippled, then the North African and Mediterranean Theatre would have gone vastly different.

You have the UK attacking Italy nearly half a decade before WW2 with no LNT and you are thinking about the North African and Med campaigns? Think you should be thinking of the butterflies instead.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
You have the UK attacking Italy nearly half a decade before WW2 with no LNT and you are thinking about the North African and Med campaigns? Think you should be thinking of the butterflies instead.

Well, it depends on the scale of the war. If it escalates to a war to eliminate Italy as a power, then no North African Theatre. If it is just a Copenhagen, a war might still happen, like Italy declaring war on France in 1940, thus joining Axis.
 
Well, it depends on the scale of the war. If it escalates to a war to eliminate Italy as a power, then no North African Theatre. If it is just a Copenhagen, a war might still happen, like Italy declaring war on France in 1940, thus joining Axis.

Not if its Navy has been smashed it won't be. Take a look at a map of Italy some time, you will an awful lot of it is accessible from the sea. That is great for trade but does mean that foreign naval power worries you.

Not only that but a Britain as aggressive as the one postulated in this thread won't hesitate to mobilise in support of France in 1936 meaning no war in 1940
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Not if its Navy has been smashed it won't be. Take a look at a map of Italy some time, you will an awful lot of it is accessible from the sea. That is great for trade but does mean that foreign naval power worries you.

Oh, I am not sure that hitler would still press for Czech claim in this case. As he would think that the British could stab him from behind despite claiming to abandon czech. And the war could make LNT invalid.
 
Oh, I am not sure that hitler would still press for Czech claim in this case. As he would think that the British could stab him from behind despite claiming to abandon czech. And the war could make LNT invalid.

Forget the Sudentenland he would not dare re-militarise the Rhineland which has rather greater consequences.
 
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