AHC/WI: Romney elected POTUS in 2012

How could Mitt Romney realistically win the 2012 Presidential Election and how would his administration play out? Would the 2014 Senate and House elections still be a sweep by Republicans? How would Romney handle Syria and Russia? What would Romney do on healthcare? How much can he get done with A Democratic Senate through 2013-2015? Can Romney win re-election in 2016?
 
It's highly unlikely.

Obama was the zeitgeist and America simply wasn't in the mood for Romney. It wasn't a matter of debates, qualifications or character. It was an election about emotion and feeling, a political expression of feel-good rather than anything else. The way Romney lost and was covered in the media was merely a symptom of it, not the root causes of why he lost.

You'd need something massively scandalous to happen for Romney to have a chance. Something so terrible that it can't be swept under the rug or ignored. The forces that eked Trump out a win this year weren't ready or suitable in '12, and there wasn't really anything to slow down Obama.

It's much like Mondale winning in '84 - America's mood simply wasn't compatible with that happening.
 
It's highly unlikely.

Obama was the zeitgeist and America simply wasn't in the mood for Romney. It wasn't a matter of debates, qualifications or character. It was an election about emotion and feeling, a political expression of feel-good rather than anything else. The way Romney lost and was covered in the media was merely a symptom of it, not the root causes of why he lost.

You'd need something massively scandalous to happen for Romney to have a chance. Something so terrible that it can't be swept under the rug or ignored. The forces that eked Trump out a win this year weren't ready or suitable in '12, and there wasn't really anything to slow down Obama.

It's much like Mondale winning in '84 - America's mood simply wasn't compatible with that happening.

What if the IRS stuff breaks before the election? Would that change anything or is it too small in magnitude?
 
What if the IRS stuff breaks before the election? Would that change anything or is it too small in magnitude?

I'd guess not, simply because it didn't ever really do a lot. Obama is one of those presidents scandal doesn't really stick to, no matter how hard people try. He reminds me of Reagan in that regard.
 
Maybe the economy is worse, so people are less willing to re-elect Obama, and especially if with this Romney can portray himself with his business background as the change America needs. Not sure how this could be done though.

An idea that has been suggested is that the operation to kill Bin Laden fails like Operation Eagle Claw, and that could weaken Obama somewhat.
 
I think Romney could have benefited from four or five changes.

1. The Hispanic Vote: Frankly, the power of the Hispanic vote was dramatically overrated after 2012. I was one of the few people I know to predict Trump would narrowly win Florida, but as mentioned earlier, the zeitgeist of 2012 did not allow for a candidate who could dramatically drive up the GOP's numbers with whites to win like Trump did. Romney (or for that matter Trump) in 2012 would have to run a more moderate campaign on the issue of immigration. Romney picking Rubio as a running mate would have helped as well for a variety of reasons. Picking a token candidate for the slot would have seemed desperate, so it can't just be any Hispanic Republican picked for the sake of their ethnicity. Rubio, as much as I despise him, is a pretty good pick because he has almost Obama level charisma, a healthy base of legislative experience in the State House and Senate, a unique ability to reach voters who might not give the OTL Romney/Ryan ticket a look, and the benefit of being bilingual.

Don't get me wrong, the undercurrent of anger was there in 2012. The rage against illegal immigration, and frankly, the arrogance of some leaders in the Hispanic community who demanded immigration reform and amnesty was certainly there. But in 2012, against a popular Obama, it just wasn't strong enough. It reached critical mass this year, and love or loathe him, Trump was brilliantly aware of that.

2. Obama in 2008 was the candidate of hope and change. Romney in 2012 was the candidate of neither. Obama was able to quickly and seamlessly shape shift from youthful populist to pragmatic incumbent brilliantly. As mentioned above, Romney needed someone with passion and vigor. Ryan wasn't a bad pick by any stretch, but I don't think he added anything to the ticket besides exciting already pumped up Republicans. One thing that annoyed me in 2012 was the amount of fellow conservatives who backed Santorum, Cain, Bachmann, or Newt (always maligning my beloved Ron Paul as some type of heroin using anti-semite draft dodger too) before suddenly jumping on board the Romney gravy-train, declaring him to be the second coming of Reagan. They were genuinely surprised that he lost. Most of these folks backed Cruz and Rubio, this year, interestingly enough. Romney really didn't need a Paul Ryan, he needed a Rubio (barf). Rubio, as we know now, is a total paper tiger and folds quicker than your aunt at a poker game on the debate stage. But Biden, for all his strengths, is no Chris Christie and Rubio could hold his own.

3. Weaken the general theme of "yeah, it's not great, but I'm glad it's Obama and not a third Bush term" attitude among swing voters. This will require Obama's presidency being a bit worse than it was. I'd say the following changes: don't have Clinton at State (thus freeing her up in the Senate to take potshots at Obama rather than actually working alongside him knowing that her own presidential ambitions are inevitably tied to his performance), an earlier IRS scandal revelation, a failed Bin Laden raid, etc, would all work great. Another thing is a weaker economic recovery (or lack of one thereof). Perhaps Obama focuses more on the Stimulus, and revitalizes our infrastructure system, which while important lacks the dramatic political pull of Obamacare.

4. A better primary for Romney would help. Perhaps he wins Iowa by a wider margin, thus taking the wind out of Santorum's sails. Santorum, with a strong second in Iowa, will still limp on through at least Super Tuesday and only split the anti-Romney GOP base. Have Romney sweep Iowa, New Hampshire, over perform against Newt in SC, and sweep FL and the remaining states ahead of Super Tuesday, and he can unite the party quickly. As I already mentioned, the GOP was very, very united in 2012. I worked on a congressional campaign here in Florida, and remember the atmosphere vividly. I was the only Republican I know who was backing a third party candidate (Gary Johnson, though I kinda liked Virgil Goode too but figured it was pointless) while most genuine independents were pretty reliably behind Obama. Uniting the GOP as it was OTL by the RNC in Tampa a few months earlier can strengthen Romney and put him in a position to win.

5. Part of the reason I didn't like Romney as a Paul supporter in 2012 and as a Trump supporter in 2016 is the fact that he is the face of political elitism. He's actually, IMO, worse than Hillary Clinton, whose transparent attempts to seem genuine were at least attempted. I think Romney thought and still does think that he is smarter than the average person, and that they know it too. You can't butterfly away every Romney gaffe. You can't even butterfly away the 47% comment....but you can butterfly away the bartender who caught the comments on film. Get rid of the evidence, you get rid of the scandal.

6. Bonus: There was a lot of progressive anger and disappointment in Obama by 2012 due to a perceived lack of progress. A weakened economy would heighten the disappointment in Obama that already existed due to the watered down healthcare bill despite a super majority, not to mention that he actually (and I'm certainly willing to give credit where credit is due!) dramatically increased deportations. Bernie Sanders flirted with a 2012 primary challenge. You don't even need a Bernie challenge, which wouldn't rise to the same heights his campaign did this year, to weaken Obama. Even Dennis Kucinich getting 10% in the New Hampshire primary should be enough to get the narrative changing.


2012 Presidential Election
genusmap.php

Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 275 Electoral Votes, 50.41% of the popular vote.
President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 263 Electoral Votes, 48.15% of the popular vote.
Former Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Judge Jim Gray (L-CA): 0.89% of the popular vote.
Mrs. Jill Stein (G-MA)/Mrs. Cheri Honkala (G-PA): 0.40% of the popular vote.
Former Congressman Virgil Goode (C-VA)/Mr. Jim Clymer (C-PA): 0.10% of the popular vote.
Mrs. Roseanne Barr (PF-HI)/Mrs. Cindy Sheehan (PF-CA): 0.05% of the popular vote.
 
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