AHC/WI: rich Italy, poor Germany

[August II Mocny]

What PoD(s) can create a situation in early 1900s Europe in which Germany is poor (like Italy or poorer) but Italy is rich and industrialized?

AFAIK industrialization of Germany happened largely thanks to Prussia, the rest of germany lagged behind economically. The issue is that Prussia that is economically less successful cannot unify Germany. We need an entity that is both strong and at the same time even more clear nservative than Prussia in terms of economic policy

 

[rfmcdonald]

Prussia, though, was uniquely advantaged among German states in being a relatively large state with a near-continuous territory. By the late 1860s, Prussia by itself had nearly the same heft as France.

If you managed to fragment Germany more thoroughly—perhaps Prussia got shattered somehow in the Napoleonic Wars—that might change things, with a more divided Germany taking longer to cohere.

As for Italy, I wonder how strong a buffer state you could make Piedmont. Perhaps you could give it Lombardy, even Veneto?

You might do this with a single POD,.say with Prussia being shattered and drawing Austrian attention north into Germany, leaving northern Italy to be united under a strong presumably anti-French state.

 

[Atterdag]

A Germany that is forcefully united under French hegemony as the Confederation of the Rhine would be deprived of quite a lot of its industrial base. At the same time an Italian kingdom United in Napoleonic times would have an earlier start in building a unified national economic base. So perhaps a Napoleonic victory scenario?

 

[rfmcdonald]

I am not sure. The Ruhr should be German at most points in Napoleonic history.

If you get a relatively stable Napoleonic hegemony over most of western Europe, this might well benefit everyone, an EEC of sorts a century before OTL. One big issue, though, is that a lot of Italy—Piedmont, at least—will be annexed directly to France.

 

[kholieken]

- If Naples and Sicily is independent, Italy would be wealthier.
- without Silesia, Prussia would be poorer.
- more successful Dutch, Belgium, or French could reduce coal mine owned by Germany.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Prussia is broken into pieces, Italy makes some strategic alliances, maybe France takes over bits of what we call Germany

 

[NedStark]

Perhaps having Italy consolidated in the Middle Age, when it was still rich, either under Roman rule or Milanese rule or Venetian rule. It would be able to defend itself better, instead of being destroyed, divided and fragmented by big powers.

 

[Falecius]

Italy is not poor (yet). I mean, decline is undeniable, but it's still a post-industrial high income country for now.

 

[NedStark]

Italy is not poor (yet). I mean, decline is undeniable, but it's still a post-industrial high income country for now.

In 1800s - early-1900s, it was poor.

 

[Falecius]

In 1800s - early-1900s, it was poor.

Definitely. But Germany was far poorer than today, too (still significantly richer than Italy, sure, on average).

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I read the title and got excited before reading the OP and realizing how late of a POD this needs. I was thinking this was a chance for a united HRE where the "cultural center" is in Italia, just as Rome was kind of the center of Rome even when the emperor and the administrative beuracracy moved to a new capitol in Mediolanum

 

[August II Mocny]

I read the title and got excited before reading the OP and realizing how late of a POD this needs. I was thinking this was a chance for a united HRE where the "cultural center" is in Italia, just as Rome was kind of the center of Rome even when the emperor and the administrative beuracracy moved to a new capitol in Mediolanum

No it doesn't require a late PoD. For your sake it can be in Antiquity as well xd

 

[Alex Zetsu]

No it doesn't require a late PoD. For your sake it can be in Antiquity as well xd

Well, in this case I think Frederick Barbossa or Otto having an easier time consolidating their power would make it easier. Back then, Germany, Burgandy, and Italy (and sort of Bohemia, but it wasn't really a kingdom at this time yet) were considered integral parts of the realm. There wasn't exactly a capital in the sense London was to England, butthe de facto capital was whereever the Emperor had his court in a given year. Most Emperors moved around, but most also had a bias towards a specific county that they would return to. Given Italy's geographical location in the Mediterranean, with the court in Italia (if multiple emperors in a row chose to spend there time there, it seems to be a personal preference thing) and the Emperors and Popes at least not openly feuding with each other, this would restore Italia to prosperity. Germania wouldn't exactly stagnate, but it would be a case of playing catch-up. There is a possibility this could get reversed when the industrial revolution happens, what matters more, having easy access to rivers and coal or being a trade hub? If you're OTL Great Britain, you want to emphasize trade simply because there isn't enough coal on the island. So Germany could end up fabulously wealthy thanks to the coal, but it's entirely possible Northern and Central Italy, by now major trade hubs for almost a millennium, end up being kind of like OTL London. many places did benefit from coal extraction, but other places just kind of got dirty and didn't even get all the material wealth for their troubles.