AHC/WI: Reverse the fate of 2 "Sickmen"

The Ottoman was called "The Sickman of Europe" while Qing China "The Sickman of Asia". Both were ruled by minority (Turks over Arabs; Manchus over Hans) with belief system as unifying factor (Islam in Ottoman; Confucian in China). Both were successors to earlier empires (there were various caliphates before Ottoman, mainly Arabs; there were also various dynasty ruling over China before China, mainly Hans)

Ottoman ultimately collapse & balkanize but China survives & is a rising power.

AHC: Reverse their fate
WI: How's the world in this ATL looks like?

Some ideas:
- Ottoman become constitutional monarchy with Caliph as ceremonial Head of State & power exercised by the elected Government;

- Alternatively, Ottoman become the Red Ottoman with a Mao-like figure as founding father who ousts Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who in turn become ruler of a small island (Cyprus, perhaps?).

- China splits into various nations, mainly Hans, & a Manchuria which claims to be heir of the Qing. However, due to the fact that the Manchus are heavily sinicized, they will have a harder time to construct the idea of Manchu nationalism, unlike OTL Turks. So maybe we can have Mongolia (combination of OTL outer & inner Mongolia) instead of Manchuria as a non-Han nation who still have some level of sinicized culture, but with its own nationalism as well, & with a Erdogan-like figure who wants to restore the former glory of China under the Mongol Yuan Dynasty.

- The idea of Han nationalism is popular in 20th century. However, it will wanes & slowly replaced by Confucian puritanism. Confucian terrorism, anyone? :p
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
You're forgetting the other "sick man" - Austria-Hungary. That should be fun to throw into the mix.

A world with the United States of Austo-Hungay, Peoples Republic of Turkey (they wouldn't keep the Ottoman Name, it was the name of the Monarchy), and the Empire of China. Sounds like the most cliched TL ever to be honest.

Regardless, the Ottoman Empire surviving is tricky. Perhaps had the Young Turks not alienated pretty much everyone, be they the religious conservatives and progressive Arab cities, then we might, might have a route to survival by having the Young Turks become a pan-Ottoman reformation group (although this requires the Young Turks to not be the Young Turks). Surviving WW1 will be imperative, although difficult; the Ottoman's allied with Germany due to Germany not being France, Britain or Russia, and were prepared to go to war with them. Neutralist, a German Victory, or just straight up having WW1 not happen when it did would give us leway. Once Oil is discover, as long as the Ottoman's can keep the Oil in their hands, then it's smooth-ish sailing.

I'd put our Red Ottoman's Taiwan in European Turkey TBH.
 
PODs are important in this case. While I cannot see a surviving Qing dynasty I can foresee a surviving Han monarchy, either through Yuan or otherwise; the trick is to make Sun interested in the idea.

For the Ottoman Empire, making them neutral would be a great start, although I don't know how that'd be possible.
 
Another game!

You're forgetting the other "sick man" - Austria-Hungary. That should be fun to throw into the mix.

I pick Turkey & China because there were parallels between the two yet the outcome is so different.

If we were to play this role reversing thingy with A-H, which other empire that you think that we could "swap" with A-H?
 
A world with the United States of Austo-Hungay, Peoples Republic of Turkey (they wouldn't keep the Ottoman Name, it was the name of the Monarchy), and the Empire of China. Sounds like the most cliched TL ever to be honest.

Likely in that universe there is someone with the username of Reynold SY or something who makes a post like this in alternate history forum and uses the word "Red Qing" and someone will be correcting him on that.

I imagine in this timeline, the term "Arab" doesn't get used so much, while the term "Han" is used more often instead than the term "Chinese".
 
Talking about monarchy...

PODs are important in this case. While I cannot see a surviving Qing dynasty I can foresee a surviving Han monarchy, either through Yuan or otherwise; the trick is to make Sun interested in the idea.

For the Ottoman Empire, making them neutral would be a great start, although I don't know how that'd be possible.

Well, the OP is to split China. So Yuan will not necessary need Sun's help. He just need to be strong enough to at least control some portion of China.

The question of monarchy is tricky because OTL Ottoman had many tribal chief that could be made into monarch after the empire collapsed but China didn't had many of these chiefs, especially among its Han population. So perhaps we could do the opposite:

The new states born from OTL Ottoman's collapse were mainly monarchies with some become republics later on, especially during the height of Naseerism; ATL China will be the opposite, mainly republics at the beginning but later many turn to monarchies. The Naseer equivalent in this timeline would be a Pan-Han nationalist who topples the whatever republic he serves at the time and declares himself Emperor of United Han Empire. This will be followed by the emergence of "kings" who also put an end to their respective republic and put themselves under the new empire. Of course, mirroring the failure of OTL Pan-Arab nationalism, ATL Pan-Han nationalism will fritter and shadowed by the emergence of Confucian radicalism. :eek:
 
First, Confucian radicalism is hard, because firstly it's not a conventional religion in any sense; it's much more a civil religion, with a few spots of shamanism here and there. Unless the irredentism for the divided Chinas are so weak that radicalisation becomes necessary(which is borderline ASB since even the warlords all believed in one China), I don't see that happening.
Second, I don't see Chinese republics turning to monarchies; Yuan only pulled off such a stunt because he was that powerful. Although there are examples of royalism on the rise in Eastern Europe after republics, I don't think that is applicable for China.
 

trurle

Banned
First, Confucian radicalism is hard, because firstly it's not a conventional religion in any sense; it's much more a civil religion, with a few spots of shamanism here and there. Unless the irredentism for the divided Chinas are so weak that radicalisation becomes necessary(which is borderline ASB since even the warlords all believed in one China), I don't see that happening.
Second, I don't see Chinese republics turning to monarchies; Yuan only pulled off such a stunt because he was that powerful. Although there are examples of royalism on the rise in Eastern Europe after republics, I don't think that is applicable for China.

How about Buddhist radicalism? Buddhism had a long history of religion-sponsored violence and is well entrenched in China. As POD, i may propose Boxer Rebellion in 1899-1901. Seems their ideology was in flux, so seems plausible some Boxer leader of peasant origin unite China under the flag of militant Buddhism, proceed to expel foreign power, kill scholars and city dwellers (along the lines of Khmer Rouge) ... and left the country splinter among religion-driven radicals by WWII. With Western powers and Japan picking occupation zones and establishing new states. May be even Israel will happen in this Alternative TL not in Palestine, but in China bordering Jewish Autonomous Oblast.:D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Autonomous_Oblast
 
so seems plausible some Boxer leader of peasant origin unite China under the flag of militant Buddhism,

*That* will be hard. Almost ASB hard, if I may that. They only controlled bits of Shandong and Beijing, and with Yuan's New Armies already established across China any major uprising that isn't endorsed by them is going to be squashed pretty quickly - remember that Xinhai succeeded because it was, essentially, led by New Army members.
 

trurle

Banned
*That* will be hard. Almost ASB hard, if I may that. They only controlled bits of Shandong and Beijing, and with Yuan's New Armies already established across China any major uprising that isn't endorsed by them is going to be squashed pretty quickly - remember that Xinhai succeeded because it was, essentially, led by New Army members.
On the other hand, the conversion may play a role. What if Yuan Shikai support Boxers with his army instead of squashing them? Yuan Shikai have already lend much support to Confucianism. He may decide to support Buddhism (or any mixture of religions supported by Boxers) if Boxers went to become religious enough to maintain Imperial Order.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Shikai#Revival_of_the_monarchy
 
On the other hand, the conversion may play a role. What if Yuan Shikai support Boxers with his army instead of squashing them? Yuan Shikai have already lend much support to Confucianism. He may decide to support Buddhism (or any mixture of religions supported by Boxers) if Boxers went to become religious enough to maintain Imperial Order.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Shikai#Revival_of_the_monarchy

This only occurred because it was 1915; furthermore I don't think any Chinese leader would trust the Boxers first because there was no strong leader and second its ideology was fundamentally xenophobic which can be a huge pain when trying to induce foreign investments.
 
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