AHC/WI: Reverse Japan and China's Development

[moxn]

With a POD after 1800, have China "pull a Meiji" and rapidly industrialize while Japan remains secluded and relatively backwards.

How would this affect its interactions with the outside world? Is it possible for them to avoid territorial losses to Russia and Britain?

With a strengthened China, would it even be possible for them to collect tribute from tribes further into Siberia and Central Asia, eventually leading to territorial claims against Russia later on?

And finally with a weakened Japan, would they more easily fall prey to European imperialism and be carved up, or potentially even fall within the Chinese sphere of influence?

 

[Green Painting]

Yboxman analyzed the reason why "China pulling a Meiji" was unlikely. He went on and made a case for the Taiping rebels as potential reformers. (I strongly advice you take a look.)

A "secluded" Japan was unlikely, but you can always give the Tokugawa Bakufu/Shogunate more luck over the Satsuma-Chōshū alliance. It might slow down reform, as the Tokugawas were not as zealous as the Meiji government in creating a unified central government. Moreover, a Tokugawa victory could firmly place Japan in French orbit, derailing the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which would mean grave consequences for Japan geopolitically.

 

[Green Painting]

With a POD after 1800, have China "pull a Meiji" and rapidly industrialize while Japan remains secluded and relatively backwards.

How would this affect its interactions with the outside world? Is it possible for them to avoid territorial losses to Russia and Britain?

With a strengthened China, would it even be possible for them to collect tribute from tribes further into Siberia and Central Asia, eventually leading to territorial claims against Russia later on?

And finally with a weakened Japan, would they more easily fall prey to European imperialism and be carved up, or potentially even fall within the Chinese sphere of influence?

A PoD after 1800 was way too late to avoid territorial losses for China. You need a 1600s PoD for that to happen (Maybe larger Portuguese or Dutch influences in Late-Ming political and economic life, or have them take part in Qing's foundation.) Once The Qing Dynasty stabilizes it's rule, you can say goodbye to large westernizing reforms.

Outside stimuli was too small to notify the Qing of a changing world in the 1700s, while too large for the Qing to handle after Opium War. An earlier Luso-Netherlander threat on sea or a more destabilizing Russo-Turkic invasion on land might change the Qing mindset. Since the Manchus rose as a horde, they may be more aware of a land borne threat.

The thing about Qing was its apparent, but vulnerable success. The success of Kangxi-Qianlong "Golden Age" gave the illusion that the system could being run the way it had been run for a century, while its vulnerability made any reform risky.

 

[moxn]

Hmm, so going off this the biggest obstacle would be either replacing the Qing or just ensuring they never rise to power. Would a scenario with a new dynasty ousting the old in a less-bloody and less-extremist analogue to the Taiping rebellions be in any way plausible? If a new regime can take hold, they'd have more room to set out reforms and could easily end the immigration restrictions to Mongol and Manchu lands, further homogenizing the nation in a few generations.