AHC WI Republicans run a full on Isolationist 1940

Could this have happened?

Might such a candidate have won?

If they won would treatment of Japan have changes such that they did not feel they had to start a war?

I assume if FDR wins other events follow otl. I do not see much opposition to war after Pearl Harbor and the Nazi declaration of war.

How much is the Republican party damaged in the 1940s?
 
The US had substantial economic interests in China. Isolationists Republicans are going to be pushed hard by big business interests in their own party. A European confrontation could, theoretically, be avoided (though you'd need a POD going back a lot further to create a dedicated enough isolationist strand), but a Pacific tussle is on the cards no matter what. The weird decision making process of Imperial Japan kind of guarantees it.
 
FWIW, a Gallup Poll on a potential FDR-Taft race:


PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT
Interviewing Date 4/19-24/40
Survey #191-K Question #8a
If President Roosevelt runs for a third term on the Democratic ticket against Senator Robert Taft on the Republican ticket, which one would you prefer?
Roosevelt...........................58%
Taft................................42

OTOH, an FDR-Dewey race (and Dewey was still considered an isolationist) would be closer:


PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT
Interviewing Date 5/5-10/40
Survey #193-K Question #7a
If President Roosevelt runs for a third term on the Democratic ticket against Thomas
222 THE GALLUP POLL
Dewey on the Republican ticket, which one would you prefer?
Roosevelt........................... 52%
Dewey............................. 48

Note, however, that both these polls were conducted before the fall of France.

http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup 1940.htm
 
Roosevelt wins at least as big as he won in 1932. Complete blowout for the Democrats nationwide, many of the gains of 1938 will be reversed.
 
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